Yes mute because so many of you can either not type , talk or both as there is a distinct lack of bastard communication on here....i do all the work to try n bring you miserable shits some winners and no one seems to be able to drop in with a single " Hello "....JEEZ..not asking much is it ??.
Anyway i do this for myself as much as you as i find it helps me reflect on my decisions and allows me the extra focus needed when looking thru the cards so i guess i will just have to suck it up lol..
We have a fantastic weekend of racing coming up and i will obviously focusing on NEWMARKET as it is the GUINEAS weekend and it kicks off on Saturday with the 2000 Guineas a the highlight with the 1000 on Sunday but todays notes will take you thru an early look for the 2000 and the supporting card now obviously there maybe the odd non runner and with no tissues available im using my own book for price comparisons so it may end up with the odd error or two but i will to break it down best i can.
The day starts with the 1m1f Makfi Suffolk Stakes and this is a race in which to leave the fav well alone..whatever it is should be avoided like the plague and i would just try and hit one or two or possibly three at double figure odds and have a spec bash and considering the last three winners were 10/1 , 10/1 & 12/1 a decent low to middle band winner is highly likely.
Top Tug and Angelic Upstart are the two market leaders so are dismissed straight away, PERSONA GRATA tho does tick all the boxes , low weight , middle order odds , improving and lightly raced sort with ample experience over the trip with the only negative being its so far raced solely at Wolverhamptn on the AW however being by Sir Percy i dont see this being an issue and i would expect this to race competitively today at decent enough odds ( want at least 10/1 ) the 2nd on my short list is BALTY BOYS which is a horse ive tried to win with on many an occasion and although its not a lemming when ever i have followed this i have lost and when i turned away it has won but today is one of those days that i feel i have to be involved and with Hughes riding this will get perfect assistance from this saddle for what is a quirky sort.
Finally we have EDUCATE a horse that has yet to sparkle this term but may be fit enough now to do himself justice and should also go off at a working mans price and itmust be said that it was either this or Bronze Angel for the third spot but i feel even tho weakening at the end the 5L beating by French Navy is still better current form and it needs only to be fitter and stay and that form puts him right in the mix.
The 2nd race on this card is the 5f PALACE HOUSE STAKES for 3+ year olds and with 10 currently entered this looks to be both a competitive heat and possibly a good punting round as the book looks well balanced.
We have a very wide mix of talent and ability on show so lets look at the two young uns...Wind Fire & Online Alexander both of whom have to be respected as both have historic form at a very high level and both are capable of showing further improvement and getting involved but as much as i think they can have a say in the finish i think they still have a bit to prove against their elders.
Talking of Elders we have a couple that can run big races as they have shown throughout their respective careers and on any given day they can really turn it on the first of which is Kingsgate Native a horse that could be called " the class in the field " however i do feel its best days are behind him with him now being seriously inconsistent and will probably only win at a much lower level and is easily overlooked for today and then we have Tangerine Trees ( Winner in 2011 ) who rolled back the years to score lto but in a very average time on much softer going and is another that could get involved but is one i feel that is very vulnerable to some of the newly established brigade.
From the Established brigade i think we can give PEARL SECRET one last chance to show us he can be the real deal instead of the infuriating arsewipe he has been for his last 10 runs...has all the ability in the world..seriously..this could and should have been Europes Champion Sprinter long ago but after some promising efforts its form become very hit n miss and im hoping this year we can see the real Pearl Secret.
The next race will be much easier to dissect as we only have four confirmed runners in this which is the JOCKEY CLUB STAKES over 1m4f for 4yr plus so its some decent prize money for some of the older generation its just a shame its a small field.
Telescope has to be one of the most frustrating horses in training a horse that has always promised more than its delivered,has looked a world beater at times and a complete dog at times and even in a very suspect field their is no way i would back this at odds on and i have this in at 1/2f so its a big swerve for me yes it may well rout these by 10L but could just as easy throw a moody and get out battled by PETHERS MOON a horse that isnt really a Group 1 performer but is still capable on its day and its seasonal debut was promising with a gutsy 2nd to Arab Spring a horse itself who is climbing the ranks and previously had Won the Cumberland Lodge stakes on Soft ground but beating Parish Hall and Enke ( St Leger winner ) and the Coutts Glorious Stakes again accounting for Enke but does have 7L to find with Telescope on last years Hardwicke but at the odds i think a chance can be taken and i will also be looking to PPL this race.
The fourth race of the day is the days big one The 2000 GUINEAS a race over 1m for 3 yr olds only and is actually a bad race for Favs although bar last year with the " freak " 40/1 winner we had three very special talents in Frankel , Dawn Approach and Camelot but prior to them it was all over the place.
Gleneagles from the powerful AoB yard has been all the rage for this but then a lot of the yards runners are over hyped and overbet and although it ran some excellent races as a 2 yr old all bar its final race in which it got discoed in France were in Ireland and as far as im concerned Irish form is wank and not worth the paper its printed on so until it races in a decent event in the UK it will get no credit from me.
Ivawood was very disappointing fto and is another to leave for now along with all the Hannon runners as i just dont like him for this today.ELM PARK however does have some very creditable juvenile form and has won on a variety of ground types has shown battling qualities and a huge amount of ability and i feel this will be the one to beat and even more so if it breaks well and can lead like it did when winning the Racing Post Trophy or the Stonehenge Stakes with a Victory in taking down the Juddmonte sandwiched in between and i think if you can get double figures on this you should snap there hand off.
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And thats it for today....off to get some beers in ;)
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