Saturday, 20 August 2011

Back to Normality..

Today i will firstly post my 4 main blog bets today ( max lb £1500 ) , then i shall post under a card for york ( advice only )..and then further down i will post up some experimental selections , devised a new bit of software for backers , this is very much a beta version but has been producing some interesting returns , from 24 selections yesterday it gave 4 winners , not very good you may say , how ever they were at 16/1 , 9/1 , 11/1 and 4/1 , so a very good points return or level pound stake profit.......so lets see what it gives today....
some great racing about today , York and Curragh being my fav tracks ( for today )...

MY BLOG BETS

1. - York 14-00 - Lay - DONCASTER ROVER - £125 @ 7.8 - 1st = Lost £850-00
2. - Curragh 14-40 - Lay - Lady Rochford - £100 @ bfsp - unplaced = won £100
3. - Sandown - 14-15 - Lay - Fallen Idol - £125 @ bfsp - 1st = Lost £1025-00
4  - Chester 14-25 - Lay - Nine before Ten - £100 @ 4.2 ( keep bet ) - unplaced ( hit 2.5 ) = won £100

BLOG P n L today = £1675-00 LOSS ( terrible )
**Terrible start to the day....oh dear...looks like an evening card is beckoning , the day bets are done, will try and claw some back tonight....**
** Jesus.....now i am in trouble , lost quite a lot on those first two , both on the blog and personally...what a fucking nightmare.......**
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York Card
( quick revised version 1.02 )

14:00
For me there are just three to concentrate on here , DAFEEF who has been layed out for this on his belated return , W.Haggas has a good record in this race and the horse is sure to fit and primed up and must carry a big chance and @ 6.8 is certainly worth a nibble however the jockey does temper some enthusiasm.
The second horse i like here is REGAL PARADE who loves the 7f here and generally prefers 7f full stop however this season thus far has been raced at 6f with minor success ( only placed efforts ) so now back at a track and trip with ground he loves it would be no surprise to see him rout these.
Finally KING TOURUS ,  this lovely bay colt is also returning after a big lay off , but hails from the very consistent hannon yard with the usually reliable hughes in the saddle if this can reproduce its form from the Veuve Clicquot Vintage Stakes (group 2) then it would have every chance.

1stDoncaster Rover (USA)5/1jfFull Result  
2ndMajestic Myles (IRE)7/1
3rdLechevalier Choisi (IRE)33/1


14:30
A very hard race to fathom out , with so many having a chance and with so many form strings its a nightmare compounded by the fact that most haven't tried the trip!
However Thubian is 10.5 and imo is far too short and i think its chances of winning are very slim to say the least , so i would make this a good lay in this race for some easy money , even at that price imo its free money , on the win side , i would very speculatively look at Communicator and Apache ( good luck ).

1stParlour Games9/1Full Result  
2ndWhiplash Willie10/1
3rdApache (IRE)17/2
4thArdlui (IRE)10/1

15:05
For me this is all about OPINION POLL , i simply cannot see this losing and @ 4.3 i think is outstanding value in a race ( he won this last year ) where most are untried over trip , unsure on ground and have been very inconsistent , and the 1.75 for a place is massive!!....i must urge everyone to have a go on this , win/place/ew whatever this for me is the bet of the day.
win or lose it has to be backed for a repeat win, my advice would be £150 win and £250 place.
RESULT = OPINION POLL 1ST @ 4.9  ( GET IN !!! )

1stOpinion Poll (IRE)3/1favFull Result  
2ndDuncan4/1
3rdBergo (GER)20/1




15:40
Saptapadi will not win...right thats out the way, so what will?? , Lost in the Moment holds very strong claims along with foxhunt and TACTICIAN , with the latter just preferred , but this is a very close affair and i wouldnt go overboard on any.

Weighed In:1stMoyenne Corniche25/1Full Result  
2ndTactician9/1
3rdInvestissement25/1
4thModun (IRE)7/1




16:15
Again there are 3 i like here for vastly different reasons , Firstly the form horse EXCELETTE  , B Smart likes this race and his charge holds very strong claims and @ 5.6 is a fantastic EW bet.
Secondly my propeller , if this can get the run of the race and dominate like he did at pontefract then he will not be caught , but im still unsure as to wether or not that was a fluke result , and finally at a big price ,  church music , this was quite the talking horse before it bolted up in a maiden but has subsequently failed , for me i will give it one last chance ew at a big price.
for betting purposes i cannot split so i will have a little ew dutch on the three....although Excelette is an outstanding stand alone ew bet.
- 1st and 3rd , so quite a decent result , excelette 3rd so happy with that...

Weighed In:1stMy Propeller (IRE)4/1Full Result  
2ndLast Bid14/1
3rdExcelette (IRE)6/1



16:50
Risky Art has to be a lay..surely , never raced beyond the minimum i simply wont have it that it will be good enough to win , free money time imo....
the winner however looks again to be decidedly trickier to find , for me if i was backing in this i would go for CRIUS , obv favs chance  but quite simply the rest really dont look anything special , small stakes win on crius for me. ( possibly wolfgang in the place market at 3.1 )
- 1st and 2nd...but wrong way round , risky art wins and costs me a few quid , steps up massively in trip and gets it on the line..;-(

17:20
I really think MARINE COMMANDO is coming back to form , won me a fortune last year when winning the windsor castle stakes , has been woeful since but his last time out 3rd after a bad start and the low weight now convince me he is ready and @ 12.0 im more than ready to risk a hefty ew on this with a little saver on york glory.
- York Glory wins , i make a very small profit on the race.


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Now the BETA BACKS....
Dont laugh if they all fail , this is a work in progress.....
**Point to note , all prices that are 9/2 ( 5.0 ) and higher will enforce a EW bet , for the purpose of this we will use a fictional £20 win / £10 ew staking structure for stats only.

1.-  YORK 1400 - DREAM EATER - unplaced
2.-  YORK 1430 - ARDLUI- 4th @ 12.0
3.-  YORK 1505 - OPINION POLL - 1st @ 4.9 ***
4.-  YORK 1540 - MOUNT ATHOS - unplaced
5.-  NEWT 1350 - KISSING CLARA - unplaced
6.-  NEWT 1420 - BE ASHORED - 3rd - 11/4
7.-  NEWT 1450 - KYLENOE FAIRY - unplaced
8-   NEWT 1525 - TAMARILLO GROVE - unplaced
9.-  NEWT 1600 - WAIT NO MORE - 2nd @ 15/8
10.-CURRAGH 1410 - UNANIMOUS - unplaced
11.-CURRAGH 1440 - BIBLE BLACK - 3rd @ 4.0
12.-CURRAGH 1550 - REDOUBTABLE - unplaced
13.-CURRAGH 1625 - ASTROLOGY - 3rd @ 6.10
14.-CURRAGH 1700 - NOBLE FOUR - unplaced
15.-SANDOWN 1415 - CHAIN LIGHTNING - unplaced
16.-SANDOWN 1445 - TRUMPET MAJOR - unplaced
17.-SANDOWN 1520 - LAY TIME - unplaced ( 4th )
18.-SANDOWN 1555 - LIVING IT LARGE - unplaced ( 4th )
19.-SANDOWN 1630 - PEARL BLUE - 1st @ 4.18 ***
20.-SANDOWN 1705 - PRIDE AND JOY - 1st @ 4.88 ***
21.- CHESTER 1425 - JAMESWAY - 3rd @ 5.1
22.- CHESTER 1500 - FINBAR - unplaced
23.- CHESTER 1535 - LUV U FOREVER - unplaced
24.- CHESTER 1610 - ILE DE RE - unplaced ( 4th )
25.- CHESTER 1645 - MR DAVID - unplaced
26.- CHESTER  1715 - FRENCH HOLLOW - 1st @ 9/2 ( 6.4 ) ***
27.- CHESTER  1745 - TAMAREEN - 2nd @ 8.4
28.- NEWT 1635 - PATRIXBOURNE - unplaced
29.- NEWT 1710 - DEANS GRANGE - 2nd @ 5.6
30.- CURRAGH 1730 - SOLAR VERDE - unplaced

LOL , right thats quite mental and tbh im not expecting anything other 30 losers so this is really should be just a watching brief , a work in progress ,  i may in fact lay them all haha...( they will win then ;-( )..

good luck today one and all...

4 winners and 5 placed with a couple to update...interesting to see what final figures will be...hmmm..

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Total staked £600
Total returns = £150 on the places ( all treated as tho 2.5 / 6/4 ) and on the win bets..
only french hollow was an ew bet , so we get £15 for the place part and £54 for the win , the others were all £20 win stakes = £220 ,..
Total from all returns = £439
so following today would have resulted in a very rough £161 loss.....


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