Thursday, 18 August 2011

Morning All....

Back to being cold now and not much fun, will have to start saving up for another month or so in the sun....
another cracking looking card at York for the purists but where are we gonna make our money from...?
lets have a good look at the York card....

York 14:00
A tough 2 yr old stakes race over 6f to start where a lot of the dogs are barking for Hestian ( 8.4 ) , it has scope for sure and won well on enough on its debut but that was over 5f and i wouldnt back any horse on rep alone in a race like this, so thats out for me.
Personally i like the chance given to ROGER SEZ ( 20.0 ) , its speed ratings are good, likes the trip and has shown already it has the natural speed to beat most of these so with some luck in running ( Easterby / Allan very good at York ) you should get a fair run for your money, needless to say at 20.0 this is an EW selection.
The LAY in this race has to be CROWN DEPENDENCY @ 3.25 , its a ludicrously short price for a race like this , yes it has a chance but not a chance that merits such a short price.
**ASH** - this is also a very good trading point , @ 3.25 lay now for say £100 and have a keep back @ 4.2 for £75 and you will make either £15 / £25 , i think this is worthy of a totd ( could also have £2.50 ew on roger sez and still be in profit if it fails ;-))
Result = Bogart wins easily , Crown dependency is unplaced , roger sez never figured , the front rank ran thru the middle and were never going to get caught , good start for the blog tho , a profit is a profit ;-)


York 14:30 
A very hard puzzle to solve , this is a good renewal of the Lowther with a lot coming in with big reps, solid form and great times.
however there are also numerous form lines to examine...
Two angles to look at ,
firstly the three i really like here are ,
1.GAMILATI
2.BEST TERMS - 1st @ 16.5
3.SHUMOOS

and secondly
the fastest three are...
1.GAMILATI
2.LADY GORGEOUS
3.SUNDAY TIMES


So with that im gonna say GAMILATI EW @ 4.9 / 1.9 for £150 and £250 ( blog bet ) - unplaced = lost £400


but my heart wants shumoos to win ( big fan ) and the 22 and 28.0 on the 2nd and 3rd quickest also represents some cracking value , so to have an ew on these and lose holds no shame.
My LAY in this is ANGELS WILL FALL for £150 @ 4.8 ( blog bet ) - unplaced = won £150


Result - Best Terms 1st at a very nice 16.5 so a dutch on my three would have been nice , however gamilati never really got into it , never picked up and was disappointing , angels will fall is only moderate on this performance imo , overall lost £250 here....time to reload ;-)


York 15:05 
A typical York hcap , big field with little to separate the first 10 lol...pin time...
Smarty Socks and Invisible Man are 2 very speculative EW selections , no lays for this.
- Result = Smarty Socks 2nd @ 10.54.....;-0


York 15:40 
The Darley Oaks and as much as i have won and love Banimpre today i feel may well be a race too many over a trip that tests her to the limit , for this reason it has to be ( regrettably ) my LOTD , i just simply cannot see her winning here today .......Lay for £150 @ 8.6 ( blog bet )
Neither do i feel that crystal capella will be good enough and @ 4.5 im almost tempted to change my mind and have that as my lotd!!.
i do like Blue Bunting and Vita Nova both for entirely different reasons and my EW bet would be Wonder of Wonders , splitting these three is difficult and it will be a great race , my head says blue bunting and my heart says vita nova and with that i will have have a very cheeky £75 win @ 4.7 ( blog bet ).
Made £75 profit on this...shud have made a lot more....

Result:1stBlue Bunting (USA)11/4fav
2ndVita Nova (IRE)9/2
3rdWonder of Wonders (USA)8/1



York 16:15
The Galtres has always been a tough race to get any decent returns from and today is no exception , this field consists generally of horses that have either underperformed , punched above their weight or have been very inconsistent.
Wild coco @ 2.92 imo is far too short and is for me a LAY £150 ( BLOG BET ) - unplaced = Won £150
Other than that i have no real fancy as much are of a muchness, Pollys Mark ( 3rd ) or Mirror Lake would be my choice in this EW if i was to have a real go in this with very slight preference for polly's....Good Luck whatever ya do lol..


York 16:50 
And to round the day off we have a hard as nails hcap however i do KNOW that DEAUVILLE FLYER has been layed out for this by the shrewdie easterby and with that i will be having £100 @ 5.0  and £150 @ 1.95 ( blog bet ) i will also be Laying CHILLY FILLY for £150 @ 10.0 ( blog bet ).
Result = Chilly Filly - 2nd = Won £150 and Deauville Flyer was third = Won £42-50 ( profit ) = Total profit of £192-50


thats it for York today , have a great day and lets hope we all win....


Total blog profits today of £317-50 ( would have been more but i forgot to announce the lay in first was a blog bet ;-( )


cya all tmrw.

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