Saturday, 27 August 2011

Happy Sat morning folks...

Well it is morning in my world , and yes mr fox i will/have added your blog and good morning to you , as im short on time again today, my daily diatribe will have to take a back seat whilst i finish off my cards , unsure as to which im gonna blog as i have them all kinda ready.....gonna crack on and finish this...ttfn...

OK..OK..ive decided today to show NEWMARKET , it is a favourite of mine and i usually do well here but was tricky as i love Goodwood also ( may show 1 mor two if i have time )..same format , back , lay and beta back with All the LAYS being blog bets , any other bets outside will be shown as BB in ( ) , ok ..good , glad we are clear on that.

NEWMARKET


13:55
BACK - AMAZING STORM ( EW ) - 1st @ 3.57
LAY - ROYAL MAJESTIC - £75 @ BFSP - UNPLACED @ 15.34 = Won £75
BETA BACK - STORMING BERNARD - 2nd @ 6.6
** I kinda agree with the beta back selection here but only in the place market , looking at the sectionals and race speed figures , Storming Bernard is a good 2 seconds quicker and covers all fractions quicker than everything ( over 7f ) , i think that 2.06 ( top 3 paid ) for a place is absolutely huge and is a far better bet than a lot of jollies that run for that or less , imo u should have a good go at this and set yourself up for the day.**

14:30

BACK - JACOB CATS ( EW ) - UNPLACED
LAY - SAMITAR - £75 @ 2.2 - 2ND @ 2.3 = Won £75
BETA BACK - BALTY BOYS - 3rd @ 7.7
** Based on pure speed figures alone then Samitar has to be layed , yes it ran and won very well in the albany stakes and is a deserved favourite for this race and in all honesty probs should win ( with improvement ) , but two things that bug me with that form are ,
1) she was the oldest 2yr old in the race by far , that makes a big difference in the early season battles as they mature quicker and do have a physical advantage.
and..
2) the time of the race was poor , she didnt beat anything special and the race was very average for an albany.
So that said at even money ( currently 2.2 ) i would rather have the field ( even a poorish looking one like this ) running for me instead of just the one for the same payoff.
This is one of those races where the value comes into play , i know full well i am probably laying the winner but at the odds and in a race like this i have to lay the fav, good luck.

15:00

BACK - CHAPERELLIE ( EW ) - UNPLACED
LAY - POLICE FORCE £75 @ ( 2.5 , KEEP BET ) - 3rd @ 2.9 ( hit 1.26 ) = Won £75
BETA BACK - KAI - UNPLACED
** Poor maiden for newmarket and again , i am probably laying the winner , but again i have no choice  , there are just too many variables in this race with all the main players looking much of a muchness and it would be no surprise to see a big priced winner here , laying the fav is the only choice.**( winner elusive flame won @ 16.1 )

15:30

BACK - CAPONE - UNPLACED
LAY - MONSIEUR CHEVALIER £200 @ 3.65 ( LOTD ) - UNPLACED = WON £200
BETA BACK - SWISS DREAM - 1ST @ 6.6
** Only swiss dream and capone have run consistently to the same marke every time ( 1m11s ) which is far better than anything else , only Macs Power has run near to this but its best speed figures are from 2 yrs ago so cannot be considered as " in form " , i think MC is far too short and has done nothing to justify favouritism , i have made this my LOTD  as i think there are at least 4 quicker in this race and imo will be lucky to place .

16:00

BACK - MIDNIGHT OIL  - UNPLACED
LAY - COBBS QUAY - £200 @ 12.5 ( lotd nb )  - UNPLACED = WON £200
BETA BACK - NORTHSIDE PRINCE - UNPLACED
**Cobbs quay has no chance whatsoever , lay this for all you can afford!!( even at this price )

16:35

BACK - KIRTHILL - 2ND @ 9.8
LAY - DARE TO DANCE - £75 @ 3.65 - 1st @ 5.6 = LOST £198.75
BETA BACK - PARAMOUR - 4TH @ 12.75 ( top 4 paid )
**as it hit 5.9 pre race i actually traded my personal position out of this and attained a very nice green )**
17:10

BACK - FAIR PASSION ( EW )  - UNPLACED
LAY - BOUNCY BOUNCY - £200 @ BFSP ( SLOW HORSE ) - UNPLACED = WON £200
BETA BACK - LONG AWAITED  - 3rd @ 3.5

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A couple from GOODWOOD......

14:15

BACK - DRUNKEN SAILOR - UNPLACED
LAY - MOTRICE - £75 @ BFSP - 1st @ 3.5 = LOST £187.50
BETA BACK - ETERNAL HEART - 2ND @ 5.91

14:50

BACK - LILLY'S ANGEL - UNPLACED
LAY - QUESTING - £75 @ BFSP - Unplaced = Won £75 ( 4.53 )
BETA BACK - REGAL REALM - 1st @ 3.13

15:20

BACK - POETS VOICE - UNPLACED
LAY - PREMIER LOCO - £150 @ 6.6 AND £150 @ 4.2 ( BOTH KEEP BETS ) - UNPLACED ( NEITHER BETS MATCHED )
BETA BACK - DUBWAI GOLD - 1st @ 3.95

And thats your lot for today , good luck with whatever ya do , im here all day if ya need any advice , you can add me on msn  and chat there if ya want , my msn is clintsmith443@msn.com , add me and chat me..lets make some money ;-)

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Overall i would have to say that today has been not far off stellar!!! , and the beta backs chipped in with a few more winners , getting a lot of 1st/2nds and i may start doing a few placepots for fun , lotd was great and again the adjusting staking helped us with the winners being at the lower end of the staking spectrum , so today we finished with a profit of £513-75 , so again another really good,solid day...hope you all did well!!.







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