Tuesday, 6 March 2012

Todays Card..

Decided by.....Me...;-)
, Gotta say its a Beaut of a day , deep blue sky , almost warm sun , chirpy birds and a general air of serenity....bliss.
Me old Gunners Playing tonight and will be looking to turn around a 4-0 deficit , that is however all they will doing as it wont happen , however i do think we will win tonight possibly 2-1 with RVP to score first , some decent Value bets to be had there.
Sledge...!!..Tennis?!.....C'mon man get your Lazy Arse out ;-).
C,Mon Kroon , dont be shy , drop in and say Hi ..
Morning Colonel Coote ;-) , Chucking one right back at ya....
Right lets Crack on with some racing action ..

E X E T E R 

Rather curious little Novice Hurdle to get the day Underway , 9 Runners where above average cases can be made for 5.
So its now effectively a 5 runner race thats paying EW 1-2-3 , should be some good value here ;-).
The 5 we need to concentrate on are ,
1.Dimpsy Time
From the bang in Form Tizzard yard cannot be left out , has run two fairly solid races so far , is now upped in trip and i see no reason why it wont enjoy the extra and at 8.4 is just about the right price to entice.

2.Sapphire Rouge
Experienced sort from the Mullins Yard , dropping back in trip today is a big plus , the weight is not an issue and i see this running a big race today , most likely winner imo.

A wonderfully bred sort from the Sherwood yard who has probably more ability than these but a temperament to match , could easily win if fully wound up and in the mood.

4.Tulia De Graville
 Have been trying this morning to get in touch with my Monsieur but to no avail , so as it stands i know nothing about the strength , quality or depth of the runs at Corlay , Coming from a good yard i would be very wary if the money was down...

5.Wishes and Stars
Ran her best race yet lto and is starting to understand the game and racing , i think this is a Place Cert , possibly a winner but i see 2nd or 3rd as more likely.


Conclusion : Quite tough to split those 5 for various reasons , i shall go with a Dutch on Florafern , Wishes and Stars & Sapphire Rouge , with an additional Place bet on Sapphire Rouge ( 1.94 is better value than the 1.47 for two horses with the same credentials and chance ).

Result :BOOM ;-)
1Florafern11-0L AspellO Sherwood77/4 f
25Wishes And Stars (IRE)11-0Conor O'farrell (3)T Dennis65/2
3Sapphire Rouge (IRE)11-6W P Kavanagh (3)J W Mullins613/2
opened 5/1 touched 13/2

This is a INFO race for me as i have had word that SILVER FOOTNOTE is fit, and race ready and they will be going all out for the win so the current 26.0 looks massive and this must surely be an EW to nothing.

Conclusion : i will again be following my Info and lumping on EW.

Result :Unplaced - There was something amiss there and i would suggest that this went wrong just after half way , will get further info later , expect a lameness or injury as it basically just lost all action and stopped within a fence of going backwards..

A decent looking Hcap Chase over an energy sapping 3m6f , this really is the type of race that the phrase " horses for courses " is quite apt , the one standout for me here is last years winner AMMUNITION , The NTD yard is now finding its form , the horse is 7lb lower than when winning this race last year and looked like a return to form is on the cards after its 2nd lto , i expect this to be bang there.
Drybrook Bedouin and Upham Atom should both get involved and are lively alternatives.

Conclusion : There are at least 6 with solid claims , there are at least 4 confirmed stayers , we have 2 CD winners and with this trip being so particular i am inclined to stick with confirmed form and for me that means a solid looking EW on Ammunition @ bfsp ( 5.1 now ).

Result :

This race has a strange look to it and i have to be honest, im struggling to find a definitive angle with this , a 3m Chase with so many distance winners, so many in form of sorts and a case that can be made for most if not all , Reblis has an obvious chance and will make them all go , Rhum has to be on the short list now ntd is back , Bounds and Leaps will run well but the one i am quite keen on is TARATATA SIVOLA from the slowly coming back into form Pipe yard , it recently had a spin over hurdles to blow the webs away and if in the mood could give them all something to think about and at 15.0 or higher im quite happy to have a little EW punt on this.

Conclusion : Very open race and one in which stakes should be kept to a minimum , a low stakes EW on Taratata Sivola is the call for me , but an open looking race that should provide a good spectacle.

Result :

This is easy to summarise , a 3 runner event ( only 3 have any chance ) , the two market leaders , Likeable Rogue & Talkonthestreet look to have this between them , both are former pointers that have been rather disappointing , both well clear tho with only Mystic Appeal being able to offer any sort of challenge No Value on the Dutch tho.

Conclusion : With there being so little value in the Dutch i feel the play here is to take the 1.6 ( pref more ) on MYSTIC APPEAL in the PLACE only market , better odds versus the other two , well clear of the rest and is the only value bet in the race.

Result :

A very weak looking Finale filled out with rather poor inconsistent types , so with this in mind im going to chuck a couple of EW bets into the ring , My selections are BUDVA and Hearty Royale , i cannot really justify either selection with any real sypnosis other than these two are " gut " bets...Sorry no big finish , i like HR because of the Jockey / Trainer combo and The form of Budva's 2nd 2 runs ago looks quite good in comparison to other form that is or is not available.

Conclusion : EW Dutch on the two mentioned at small stakes to finish the day off.

Result :
Thats Exeter covered for ya , whatever ya doing, have a great day, keep smiling, keep the faith  and if anyone wants any advice on any other ..get in touch ;-).


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