Friday, 25 May 2012

2 races for Michael

Chester 14:25
A very tricky maiden with little experience to work with and all bred to enjoy the trip , Mandy Lexi is the current Fav @ 1.69 which imo is ludicrously short for a 2yr old having her 2nd run on ground she has never encountered before, forget the sex allowance as its a known fact that the fillies are weaker than colts at this age and they wont be comparable until the end of August , its first run was over 5f in terrible conditions  here at Chester , this race is over 6f on much much quicker ground and against some potentially useful sorts , anyone that takes 1.69 on this horse in this race is an absolute headcase.
What will win?...well the fav is the obvious starting point but as we have already discussed this we will move onto the others , the other two with experience should improve but i cannot see them troubling the judge , the 3 other newcomers can be separated by just a cigarette paper and if pushed i would probably say Dream Maker .


Conclusion :  The only bet for me in this race is a lay on the likely winner and fav Mandy Lexi , for starters i would most def have the 3 newcomers running for me rather than against and secondly if you must i would suggest a lay at these ludicrous odds and look for a trade at around 1.9 which imo will get matched as i can see this being a right burn up from the off. - Mandy Lexi 2nd @ 1.8

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York 14:35
A real good looking renewal of this 7f Conditions event with most of the 8 runner field able to post a claim but yet again the greedy bookies have gone very short about Saamid a horse that ran twice in starter races  ( a maiden then the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster ) winning well enough to think , hmm quite useful , then proceeded to get trounced twice by Frankel before running  well on his comeback behind Sri Putra.
This is a beast with obvious ability but how much and how consistent and more importantly what about the opposition?.
Well honestly this looks like a race full of exposed ( but useful ) H'cappers and Saamid is without doubt the class by a long way , Regal Parade i dont feel will enjoy the ground , Brae Hill could enjoy a tussle for the places ( inc first ) and should reverse form with Smarty Socks on 7lb better terms , Boomerang Bob is the one for the FC and the main danger imo and you can forget the rest.

Conclusion :  SAAMID is the only and logical choice , Will enjoy the ground , will enjoy the trip is in form , is fit and should prove to be different gravy however i have no idea how Frankie will ride him today  ( i know he will be sat in the saddle , smart arses ! ) i would be quite happy taking the 1.9+ on this , and this will be one of my stronger bets for tmrw.

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