Saturday, 5 May 2012

2000 Guineas Day .


Yes indeed ladies and gentlemen its the start of our Classic season with a fantastic looking card from Newmarket.
So much to consider, so much to digest and i have stats pouring from every orifice!, Plus today i will for a tester be including *£10WIN/£5EW bet choice from each race as a guide so without further ado lets move onto todays stunning card....

******************************NEWMARKET***********************

RACE 1


BACK - FURY - *£5 EW @ 6.2 - 3rd @ 6.0
EW - SPANISH DUKE -
OUTSIDER - TULLIUS - 1st @ 17.5
*Interesting race to start the day off and one i feel that lacks any amount of depth class wise. The Class act here imo is most certainly FURY has run 2 very decent races so far this season and has had a fair share of bad luck , wont mind the ground , trip shouldn't be a problem ( if anything it should help as he has been running on solidly at the end of his previous 2 races ) and has the very able assistance of Fallon is currently priced at 6.2 which although not outstanding is quite fair ( massive in my eyes but im slightly biased ).
What will take him on? , Spanish Duke has won fto and wont mind the conditions so i would expect a strong run from this , Tullius was pulled from a prior engagement to race here so connections must be happy , Danadana & Graphic are both interesting for contrasting reasons and both are capable of putting in solid runs with the remainder looking very average and inconsistent.
LAY - N/Q -
RESULT -
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RACE 2

BACK - DUNADEN - *£10 PO - 3rd @ 6.27
EW - SADEEKS SONG -
OUTSIDER - MASKED MARVEL -
*I have to admit at being a bit of a DUNADEN fan and as such my analysis may be slightly biased instead of stat and rating based however it does have some excellent form on offer is gutsy and will battle all the way to the line this has an excellent chance and at 6.4 is imo superb value and is my EW NAP for today and is my PLACE banker i cannot see this not being placed.
Sadeeks Song , Masked Marvel and Quest for Peace all have far inferior speed ratings but are very closely matched together so much so its nigh on impossible to split these at this stage , Al Kazeem is too slow to figure , Blue Bajan is not quite good enough and Fiorente is ...well is interesting but Stable has not really started firing yet and its speed ratings for its racing over this trip are very poor and quite happy to swerve this which leaves Meandre , a class horse with some rock solid form but with question marks and also coming from a stable that is currently under the clouds at 3.15 this is well worth taking on.
LAY - MEANDRE - Unplaced
RESULT -
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RACE 3 **Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes**

BACK - ABTAAL -
EW - TRUMPET MAJOR - 4th @ 9.83 ( Most firms paying top 4 in this )
OUTSIDER - TALWAR -

Pos.Dr.Dist.HorseWtJockeyTrainerAgeSP
112Camelot9-0J P O'BrienA P O'Brien315/8 f
opened 2/1 touched 19/10
216nkFrench Fifteen (FR)9-0O PeslierN Clement312/1
34Hermival (IRE)9-0G BenoistM Delzangles316/1
418Trumpet Major (IRE)9-0R HughesR Hannon38/1

*This is imo a weak renewal certainly weaker than most in recent years and with no Frankel type superstars yet to emerge its left to hype horses to carry the flag and this year we have the much lauded, much hyped and well versed Camelot a horse by Montjeu a sire that does not breed many 1m winners , a stat that needs to be recognised , This will be his first run of the season but will have been well prepared and will be ready but the sire stat is hugely off putting, the ground is a concern , lack of run is a minor niggle , the jockey is a ? , this has a lot of questions to answer and will it? , imo i think that you will not see the best of this until it goes 1m2f+ and i think it could easily be outgunned in this and i will be laying at the nice short odds its currently at.
What will win then? , Solely on speed ratings and my own form ratings i have Trumpet Major down as the quickest and most likely to show his true running and has to be in the mix , i really like Abtaal and French Fifteen , Talwar has a rating from me that entitles him to a place and at fancy odds ( 70.0 ) could give the traders a decent return and we also have the ubiquitous Born to Sea a half brother to the magnificent Sea The Stars and another hyped " wonder horse "...this does interest me...
The two that do interest me most and will be carrying my money are *TOP OFFER & POWER , These it must be stressed are personal selections as Top Offer has more to prove than most and Power has to show he can really stay " if " Power can stay this 1m and " if " he carries his old form thru then i think it has an outstanding chance in a sub standard year and Top Offer could be anything but is obv something...so @ 11 & 16.5 i think its a fair dutch with a Lay on Camelot to make some profit.
LAY - CAMELOT - 1st @ 3.2
REVIEW**- Given the strange nature of how this was run and its position in the race ( hit 5.0 in running ) this quickened right at the end suggesting it will only get better with further, i will tell you all now..BACK THIS NOW FOR THE DERBY!!...you have been warned.
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RACE 4

BACK - INXILE - ( bfsp 33.30 , hit 16.5 in running, ran well, got swamped )
EW - MAYSON - *£5 EW - 1st @ 4.76
OUTSIDER - CALEDONIA LADY  -
*A tough sprint and a cavalry charge all the way , these are notoriously difficult to get the winner from and as such i have just stuck with my own speed ratings.
RESULT -
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RACE 5

BACK - MINCE - *£5 EW - 2nd @ 6,90
EW - DEMOCRETES - 3rd @ 10.2
OUTSIDER - HURRY UP GEORGE -
*Super competitive race with half the field able to submit a case , there is one tho that does excite me and thats MINCE , this has been on my tracker list now for some time and i will be following no matter what happens , it is also interesting that they have bentley riding to claim an extra 3lbs off instead of Jack Doyle...Hmmm.., the only other one that interests me personally also comes from the Charlton stable and that is Tioman Legend.
RESULT -
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RACE 6

BACK - NOBLE MISSION - *£10 WIN - 1st @ 2.89
EW - MARINERS CROSS - 2nd @ 3.49
OUTSIDER - MICHAELANGELO - 3rd
*The QRN and for me its all about NOBLE MISSION and can this now show it has its brothers pedigree ( Frankel ) , won well enough fto to suggest there is a bit more to come and i desperately want this to be so but at the moment my heart is ruling my head as i have been reliably informed that Michaelangelo is rather useful and then there is Mariners Cross to beat ( forget the rest ) so i will be having a dutch on these three with the greatest winning portion being on Noble Mission.
RESULT -
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RACE 7

BACK - FROG HOLLOW - 3rd @ 7.80
EW - FOUTH OF JUNE - *£5EW -
OUTSIDER - CAMPANOLOGY -
*The " getting out stakes " and it couldnt be any tough lol , and i think if i was looking to get some losses back i would row in FOURTH OF JUNE @ 11.0 EW as i feel this a solid option in a tough race.
RESULT -
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There you have it , my take good or bad on a tough days racing at Newmarket albeit an exciting one to watch , have fun , good luck to all and keep the Faith.
Todays DBB'S will be posted shortly onto PRP , no further race cards as there have been no further requests , enjoy and good luck.
ps: dont  forget to log into the FB page and get your selections down for the weekend free to enter Sat tipping comp!.
Any advice or questions just pop in and say hi...ask away, see you all on Monday ( 1000 Guineas card will be on PRP ).

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