Wednesday, 26 December 2012

Happy Boxing Day!!!

Hope u had a very happy Xmas!!, i did , had another great couple of days wi the in laws and now its back to work and for me that is betting, backing, laying, trading et al...with 12 cross channel meetings today there is a great selection to aim at but obviously for me todays big meeting is KEMPTON which is holding the King George a race i feel Long Run should be winning easily and the current 3.4 looks a steal...
They ( pundits ) are saying this is the most open KG in many a year.....i disagree i think Long Run has 20+lb in hand on its best form and even on its poorer form is still superior , its still young ( relatively speaking ) and could be open to further improvement as i dont buy into all that bollocks about him being burnt up by having hard races early in his career , he jumps ( usually sound ) , he stays . he battles, he likes most ground types and is a true class animal the Jockey is a blight imo however he has already won some high profile races so has shown he can ride i just dont think he is as good tactically or ability wise as the likes of Geraghty , McCoy , Walsh , et al.....this is a subject that many like to debate and nothing will change ( as his father owns the horse ) so you have to factor this in , but my tissue this morning has LR at 2.2-2.6 so 3.4 has to be snaffled up and included in some big ol doubles as there are some very good looking favs on show today....righto ladies n Gentlemen i will try and do my best for Kempton today and i will do a combi card....

A tough but good looking novice hurdle to start the day off and the winner will come from one of the runners with experience imo , Firstly we must talk about Asker a horse 87 on the flat and one that has shown good winning form already in bumpers and has shown a liking for heavy ground so this imo will run a very sound race but will it be good enough to win.......probably not .
Then we have Kings Lad and New Years Eve , both of which appear to be very proficient and talented but will a horse rated just 124 be able to win this...i dont think so , can either improve....yes i feel they both have plenty of improvement to come and will both be winning races over the season and both will make their presence felt but for me the form horse and likely winner will be RIVER MAIGUE whose lto run behind Dodging Bullets is rock solid form and a repeat of that performance should win this as i rate River Maigue currently around 142~ so i feel it already has a fair bit in hand...good race but this really should go the favourites way.

WIN - RIVER MAIGUE - 1st @ 1.77
EW - KINGS LAD - 3rd @ 19.8
Next up is a tricky looking 2m4f Beginners Chase with quite a few holding chances but most have it to prove on the ground although the distance may well equalise this bias out in this race.
I have been speaking to my " friends " this morning and i knowm they feel they have a big win waiting to come Rajdhani Express and it was travelling as well as anyhting before tipping up 2 out lto and this will surely be fighting out the finish if it can sort out its jumping , Coole River is from Emma's yard and is highly regarded this was a useful hurdler in Ireland before and looks a chaser in the making and again this should fare well here in this ground.Elenika is a sound horse, good jumper and stays but does lack a bit of class and would appear to be a bit of a plodder and i think this may be a bit to much for him today.
Grove Pride would probably prefer further but will be staying on when or if the others have cried enough and could run into a place but again i feel this race will not be to his liking so a place at best i feel for this,at a price ( 8.25 + ) i feel VALMARI is probably the best bet ( EW ) , you can forget its lto run behind Dynaste as that was a different league to this although tbf he was 2L up and going well before falling 4 out so we just dont know , prior to taht he has some very solid and reliable form in good company , likes the ground, stays this trip and is usually a sound enough jumper so i see no reason why this cant put in a solid round today and give a good account against a bunch that generally have it to prove.

EW - VALMARI - Fell ( when leading and going well )
LONG - COOLE RIVER - 2nd @ 4.41
Now we move onto the Feltham Chase, a classy 3m affair that has thrown up some very useful winners over the years including Grands Crus and Long Run ( although they dont do that well at the festival ) and although there are some decent horses on show i feel DYNASTE is different gravy , this is all class , not an improver ( as such ) has nothing to prove is straight forward and should win this quite comfortably , im a big fan of this beast and want it to win easy , i will be both shocked and surprised if it doesnt.

WIN - DYNASTSE - ( NB ) - 1st @ 1.68 ( Easy )
EW -
Now we have the Christmas Hurdle over 2m and possibly the toughest heat of the day , this is a remarkably competitive affair with all 8 runners capable of winning on their day , this is tough...Strictly on form i make Countrywide Flame the one to beat but this is very closely matched with both Cinders n Ashes and DARLAN with the latter just getting the nod in this as i felt he was unlucky in the supreme novice hurdle at the festival ( behind Countrywide Flame ) fell when looking like the winner in the Betfair hurdle and has won everything else , this is supremely tough but this will be carrying the % of my money here im a big big fan and the team will not hear of defeat.
with the others..Dodging Bullets , the long awaited return of Punjabi and the superb H'capper Raya Star make this a fascinating race and if any of the latter 3 were to win i wouldnt be shocked although Dodging Bullets is probably the most Interesting of that trio.

WIN - DARLAN - 1st @ 4.60
And finally we arrive at the King George VI Chase and with no Kauto or Denman in place ( both retired ) this should now be won by LONG RUN a horse with great ability , a proven Gold Cup winner, one who stays jumps well ( usually sound ) , battles and ticks all the boxes and i have this around 20lb clear of anything else bar Riverside Theatre although that was well; beaten and behind Long Run last year and there is no reason for the form to be reversed , this will be a great race but i will be both skint and sad if Long Run cannot win this today...this has to be his day to prove his class and his well being, if he fails today i personally think it will be enough to end his rather short career because if he cant win today against these then he wont win another top grade race against the same roundabout of opposition...this is a must win for the team imo.

WIN - LONG RUN - 1st @ 3.03
EW - N/A -
Finally a tough looking Hcap to round of proceedings but i feel we can have the winner here as well as the luckless SAINT ROQUE is well over due a win and a change in fortunes , brought down when cruising lto this looks quite a classy sort and should be upto listed grade or more in time and racing off just 118 this could make a mockery of that mark , big EW on this in this finale for me...Good Luck and enjoy your day!!...
LONG - LOOSE CHIPS - 1st @ 12.0

*************Finally i manage to go through the card with a Booomtastic 6/6...Get the fuck in ;-))


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