Monday, 17 December 2012

Merry Monday ...

Hi All , its almost the Xmas week and this is is probably the best thing for me  ( now a days ) about Xmas..the weekly build up , the anticipation , the parties , the hope for what the New Year will bring , the awakening of dreams and aspirations...and we have one of my single most favoured days in the NH calendar ..the Boxing Day Specials...Usually a great hunting ground for me and i like to earn some extra for the sales ( although they are getting worse year on year ) , then its the 27th and suddenly its all over for another year and its time to think about getting away for a cheeky week in the Sun to recharge the drink fuelled and blasted body....anyone know where its usually nice n hot in January?...
So lets crack on with todays racing where we have 3 solid looking meetings inc some AW action from W'ton so a fair enough mixture and i cant complain for a Monday...i will look for some value today , no cards , just a run thru the races highlighting any i feel are worth a tickle or two......


Sir Fredalot is the hot fav in this small field and deservedly so but at 1.42 offers no real value for the work a day Punter so the bet for me is to Place LAY the top two both of which are odds on ( 1.11 & 1.67 ) ...low liabilities and a better profit for risk than just lumping on the Fav ( although realistically it should win as it wants on form ).

RESULT : 1st Sir Fredalot and 2nd is LADY ROMANZA @ 12/1 = Win £89.00
Another small field and reasonably tight affair and i will suggest the same bet for this race ( Place lay top two with keep bets at 1.52 on the others ) current odds are 1.19 and 1.23.

RESULT : Fav and 2nd Fav were 1st and 2nd = Lost £42 However Dark n Dangerous hit 2.0 in the win market and sub 1.3 in the place and the place lay on that was matched so thats Plus £100 = overall Profit of £58.00

Again we have a small field but  not as tight, 6 runners remain with 4 having a competitive chance but the top 3 imo are the ones to focus on and each comes from a different category , you have the " improver " in DUNLOUGHIN an ex PTP winner and one that should have no problems with stamina coming from Definite Article  but the stable is a small one its tough sometimes to gauge there form but i would suggest this has a fair chance and a better chance than the discounted Water Wagtail which i have been informed is still very green.
Then we have the " disappointment " in UNCLE JIMMY  a good looking sort from Alderbrook ( one of my favourites ) this won fto this year very easily and looked potentially quite smart but was bitterly disappointing at Ffos Las and has to be forgiven that run over 3m ( this is 2m5f ) and has to be at the very minimum as good as he has shown and has to be offered another chance.
Finally we have the " Form " horse in ACE FIGHTER PILOT whose latest run behind Billy Merriot reads very well however there has to be concerns over the ground as the two wins achieved have been on Good and GD/FM and subsequent runs on soft have been disappointing and quite poor on occasions.
All said and done i feel the bet is a LAY on Water Wagtail ( 3.95 ) on the basis of opposition and information received.

RESULT : * Pre Race Water Wagtail was 5.2 and i " Greened " for a very nice profit * , Profit is £4 ( WW WIN ) OR £28 ( WW LOSE ) - Water Wagtail is Unplaced = Won £28.00
Another small field that offers little value as they are very competitively priced with a market over round of just 100.9% and with this we have a screaming STAT LAY in Brunnettesonly but this is so tight im a bit loathed to follow the stat here ( although i probably will as the STAT Lays have a very strike rate ) but another angle in and possible a better one ( although this is speculative ) is to Place Dutch the bottom three with the main equally staked bets on the two outsiders and a money back bet on the third fav as current prices are 3.9 and 4.3 with the saver at 2.02 now against win only prices of 10.0 & 11.95 ( 2 rags ) the place price seems huge OR the market is hugely under developed and the two rags will drift in accordance out to around 20+ if so you can make a solid case for laying the arse out of the rags at there current prices and trade off before the race for a gteed profit....hmm?..
Thinking more conservatively about this i do actually think the trade is the way to go....lay both then trade pre race.

RESULT : took a small loss on Ballhassig as it come into 6.75 ( and won ) but made a bigger profit on Collyns Avenue as it drifted out to a small profit of £19.02
Here we have my EW NAP for the day in ROMNEY MARSH a horse that is in form, has the best recent form , likes the ground , has proven he stays and loves it here at Plumpton having run here in 5 of his last 10 runs this is no world beater for sure but such is the paucity of credible opposition i think this could easily beat these and i will be shocked if it doesnt place , however you could also say that Backing the WIN and Place Laying is a good solid bet but at 4.1 / 2.14 the EW bet stands better just now , if however this was to be heavily punted pre race and the place price went to around 1.6 against say 3.4 the win then i would suggest taking the latter option , i will wait nearer the time before placing my bet.

RESULT : Drifted out to 8.8 pre off ( didnt take the place lay option ) and ran like the drift suggested...did absolutely nothing....Lost £100
Just LAY Wishes or Watches in this poor 3 runner race as it has no chance and will only win if the other 2 fall....very poor horse.

RESULT :Unplaced = Won £20.00
LITTLE ROXY simply has to get involved in this very poor finale , both of last years victories come over CD and with most of these arriving badly out of sorts the consistency of this could be good enough to see home and a Place Lump is a strong bet here.

RESULT : 3rd @ 2.24 ( 1.24 ) = Won £24.00

**All bets for " fun " accounting will be based around a level stake of £100  as a core stake or liability , lets see how the day goes..good luck all....


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