Saturday, 1 June 2013

Derby Day

 Well its that special time , its DERBY DAY and we have a rip snortin Favourite in Dawn Approach who will win imo today for a variety of reasons and this card is ably backed up with some very decent looking supporting races not least the Coronation Cup , so without further ado lets blast through this Epsom Card and hopefully we can find a winner or two.


            ~~~~~~~~~~~~DERBY DAY~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 1
WIN - HIGH TROJA - 4th
EW - SPACE SHIP -
LONG - SALUTATION -
*

SUMMARY - We start the day off with a average looking Hcap over 1m2f that is higher on potential than class or proven ability so stakes should be kept to a minimum here.
The 3 form selections are SALUTATION , SPACE SHIP & HIGH TROJA with me just favouring the latter.
High Troja has been improving steadily ( only had 7 runs ) and has only ever been unplaced once and that was when it ran 5th on its debut , this strapping son of High Chapparal will appreciate any test of stamina and is highly versatile with the ground having won or been placed on everything from AW , Heavy , right through to Good/Firm so any ground is good ground and that shows that this is a true race horse and potentially has that touch of extra class and with more improvement expected i can see this beating this very average lot.

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RESULT - 
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RACE 2

WIN - THUNDER STRIKE - 1st @ 4.22
EW - RIVERBOAT SPRINGS - 2nd @ 7.28
LONG - ZALZILAH -
*

SUMMARY  - Now we have the Woodcote Stakes a very tough race for punters as this is a well contested  6f race for 2 yro and all the field have something about them so it will be a case of form retrieval , stats and speed figures.
If THUNDER STRIKE can carry the speed he has shown in his two 5f races into this and stay then he will take all the beating although i see this more of a 5f Royal Ascot horse but i guess Hannon knows best.
RIVERBOAT SPRINGS has already shown he stays this trip and won well lto in a good time and looks set for a big run ( about time the Bushrangers stepped up even if i have removed them from the breeders list ) and finally i feel ZALZILAH could make the frame as the remainder all look like very precocious 5f all burn n turn types and this will be a mad dash for 4f with the stamina kicking in and the better bred sorts coming to the fore.

BET ADVICE - 
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RESULT - 
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RACE 3

WIN - ST NICHOLAS ABBEY - 1st @ 1.33
EW - N/A -
LONG - N/A -
*

SUMMARY  - Now we have the St Nicholas Abbey Stakes.....sorry thats a typo , i meant The Coronation Stakes but as St Nicholas Abbey has won it for the last two years and looks to make it a Hat Trick they may as well as this has turned into nothing more than a benefit race for both himself and Coolmore ( O'Briens Stable )  and i see absolutely no way how St Nick gets beat here , its a proven CD winner that arrives in cracking form after running all over Dunaden at Meydan , Joshua Tree only seems to run well in Canada , Chamonix looks bloody useful for a pacemaker but that is his primary task and Chapter Seven is way out of his depth ...all roads point to another bloodless victory.

BET ADVICE - 
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RESULT - 
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RACE 4

WIN -  AJJAADD - 
EW - LA FORTUNATA -
LONG -  DUKE OF FIRENZE - 1st @ 6.0
*

SUMMARY - Now this is as hard a race to call as anywhere at anytime an 18 runner 5f Dash ( Hcap ) and this is def one for the magic Pin!!!...
For me Duke of Firenze looks to be the " Class " in the race and although beaten lto it had a rough ride all the way and is due some compensation and a big run here is inevitable.
The quickest on all recent evidence is AJJAADD which won over CD lto in an amazing 0m.55s ( just beating La Fortunata ) and a repeat of that run wins..simple!!...but can it reproduce a performance of that magnitude??..
SMOOTHTALKINRASCAL is bang in form and with the ever reliable Tudders doing the steering i expect this to get a peach of a ride and make em all work even i do think it is just short of the ability required to take this.
CAPTAIN DUNNE will also be expected to push them all the way and is another arriving in good form after a cracking run at Chester in a very quick time and i think this is a placer for sure.
Finally i think LA FORTUNATA is entitled to respect having just been caught on the line over CD lto behind the aforementioned Ajjaadd.

BET ADVICE - 
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RESULT - 
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RACE 5

WIN - DAWN APPROACH - STONE LAST.....;(
EW - N/A -
LONG - N/A -
*

SUMMARY - DERBY TIME!!!...And its DAWN APPROACH all the way for me, with no other Group winners in the field  i dont feel the questions over his stamina will be an issue tbh , but look at the breeding on the sire side, his Father New Approach was thought to be a doubtful Stayer yet WON the Derby his grand sire Galileo WON both the UK and Irish Derbies and then back more and we have Saddlers Wells ( Won the Coral Eclipse / 2000 Guineas ) and the near legendary Northern Dancer....so no problems there although i admit the dam side is questionable but im discounting it as an anomaly ;).
Of the outsiders i feel Galileo Rock could be a surprise package and Ruler of the World looks useful along with the potential improvement to come from Mars and the battling qualities of Battle of Marengo but realistically i feel this is a weak Derby and DAWN APPROACH wins , coming round the bend will not be a problem and should hopefully be in about 4th position at this time and as they straighten up for the final 2f i expect it to make a positive move to the front and run on up the hill killing the speed any may have and will win going away...

BET ADVICE - 

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RESULT - 
1st (10)12 Ruler Of The World (IRE)A P O'Brien39-0 pR L Moore7/1
Held up towards rear, headway on outside and edged left from over 3f out, went 2nd over 2f out, led inside final 2f, driven clear inside final furlong and stayed on strongly £3500-£500
2nd (5)LibertarianMrs K Burke39-0William Buick14/1
Held up towards rear, pushed along and awkward on downhill run, riidden and headway on outside 2f out, edged left over 1f out, stayed on strongly inside final furlong, went 2nd final strides, not pace to reach winner
3rd (11)s.hGalileo Rock (IRE)D Wachman39-0W M Lordan25/1
Took keen hold tracking leaders in 5th, went 2nd over 2f out until 2f out, chased leaders in 3rd, went 2nd again briefly final strides, dropped to 3rd soon after
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RACE 6

WIN - SIRVINO -
EW - DUKE OF CLARENCE - 2ND @ 4.20
LONG - CAYUGA -
*

SUMMARY  - Now after all the fun of the Derby we are pulled right back to earth with a run o the mill Hcap..sigh...
DUKE OF CLARENCE stepped up to this trip lto and was only narrowly beaten and must surely be involved in the finish this time along with SIRVINO for whom Ryan Moore takes the ride and this in form beast will take all the beating today off the back of a very good win at York lto.
CAYUGA should also run well being out of Montejeu this will do nothing this term but improve and this is the right trip on breeding and could start to get some deserved wins under his belt.

BET ADVICE - 
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RESULT - 
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And that will do me for my Place Pot card as race 7 is another nightmare race and not one for me to get involved in so good luck all , have fun and fingers crossed we get some breaks today

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