Saturday, 29 June 2013

Irish Derby Day

                               

Good Morning All ( yes it still is ) well ive been a busy ol bee this morning checking thru all todays cards trying to find today's Stat Lays and rather Incredibly we have 15 for today...YES 15!!....Yet after hitting the last month with an incredible strike rate of almost 97% the last four days have seen some amazing turn arounds , firstly i did slightly tweak the data required to get in as a Stat Lay but not by so much i thought it would have any significant impact but how wrong could i have been because in the last few days i have had a total of 34 STAT LAYS that have returned an astonishing 17 WINNERS !!! ( 5 were Alternates but still Stat Lays )....that is an incredible 50%!!!!....Now either this is an incredible statistical anomaly or i have accidentally found an incred way to find winners???!!!...so what i shall do today is NOT lay any of them and instead i am going to have 2 Acca's ( 15 selections ) including 4 folds and 5 folds and see if this works , just smallish stakes tho as it could well be that the last few days have just been a complete fluke , but this has proven to be very interesting..so for the remainder of this month i will continue in the same vein and start next month on two different platforms using the tweaked data for back bets and the old data for lay bets to level stakes ( will include some multi action on the back bets , but this will be explained in good time )....but really 50 fucking per cent.....could this really be just a fluke or has Jason found the Fleece?

**@ 17:02 we have so far managed 6 winners from 10 Stat races...fucking amazing scenes!!!..

The last week in general was quite dismal for racing tbh and i shall not dwell on it instead i will look forward to today and a cracking day it looks, with The Irish Derby from the curragh supported with 2 or 3 decent looking races , Newmarket and Newcastle hold good looking cards with some tasty races although Newcastle is cutting up soft and i shall take it easy there as it can be a nightmare when the ground goes soft as the formbook is by n large thrown out of the window!! , we also have the rather quirky Chester which again is being well supported by its patron the great " DR " and finally we have the wonderful Windsor so there is plenty for everyone and not a NH race in sight ( Mullers will be pulling his hair out )....

Todays Max Card and Place Pot punt will be for NEWMARKET as this is usually well attended and has the right type of fields to attack , so without further ado lets crack on...Good Luck ;)

NEWMARKET

RACE 1
WIN - FIG ROLL - 1st @ 3.67
EW - MAJEYDA -
LONG - SUNNY HARBOUR -
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SUMMARY :A tough looking 6f Listed event for 2yr old fillies with 12 runners and this looks quite wide open with most looking as likely contenders however it is my job to try and narrow the field and we do have two obvious contenders for different reasons , firstly we have the outstanding form choice which is FIG ROLL who ran a cracker lto in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot coming in 4th behind the highly regarded and very useful Rizeena and this is easily the best form on offer and a similar run wins this race simple as that plus the fact she looks to be in desperate need of this extra furlong has the ground to suit and Hughsey riding...this one does tick all the boxes and i cannot see this running unplaced.
Secondly we have the " Potential " from MAJEYDA from Godolphin a horse that hasnt achieved a great deal ( 2 runs ) but won  ( i should say hosed up ) its maiden by nearly 5L in emphatic style although it didnt beat much tbf however this is an obvious improver and if Fig Roll fails then this has every chance of stepping up.
I dont really have any big outsider for this race as Sunny Harbour is the only other one to interest me and that is the 3rd fav , so its an obvious race with obvious selections but it would be folly imo to go against them.
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NOTES : Only WIN/EW for PP - 
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RACE 2
WIN - HARRIS TWEED -
EW - IM YOUR MAN -
LONG - LOST IN THE MOMENT - 1st @ 6.70
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SUMMARY :Next up is a small field 1m4f race for the older generation and its a very tight affair indeed as its impossible to rule any of the 5 out , all have been disappointing, all could improve , all have the ability to win , i know this is a just a 5 runner race but i have to get 3 in here.
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NOTES :If there is any significant rain then i would be quite sweet on Harris Tweed.
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RACE 3
WIN - PRODUCER - 1st @ 3.80
EW - RED JAZZ - 2nd @ 14.0
LONG - PASTORAL PLAYER - 3rd @ 5.10
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SUMMARY :Now its the Criterion a 7f Group 3 for 3+yr olds and this is another trappy one although Libranno ( the winner last two years ) looks a shadow of its former self and can be easily dismissed.
This is a race in truth that just stinks of disappointment with the whole field being mostly under achievers or let downs and its a case of which of this shit lot is the least shittest..

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NOTES :
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RACE 4
WIN - NABUCCO - 1st @ 3.60
EW - FORGOTTEN HERO -
LONG - COME ON BLUE CHIP -
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SUMMARY :Now its a nice looking Hcap over 1m2f with 11 runners , competitive indeed but not a complete pin fest......what am i fucking saying!!...total bollocks, this is a nightmare for the place pot as its just too wide open.
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NOTES :
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RACE 5
WIN - MAN AMONGST MEN - ( NAP ) - UN-FUCKING-PLACED
EW -
LONG -
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SUMMARY :A maiden now but one with great Interest as them magnificent Sea The Stars has another Juvenile runner in Sea The Skies however i have been rather underwhelmed with her lot so far so will just have a watching brief on this one , i have herad some very good reports for Squire and this could also be a bit special but they will have to post a very good fto rating of at least 86 to beat MAN AMONGST MEN as this ran in the same race as Royal Ascot winner Berkshire when 2nd and 3rd behind the highly regarded Championship and that is stand out form and this should not be opposed , unless that run was a freak ( and i very much doubt it ) the horse that beats MAM will almost certainly be group/listed class and quite frankly having Juveniles race to anything above 85 fto is as rare as Snow Thunder.
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NOTES :Ran an absolute shocker, very very poor effort and completely ruined my Placepot ;(((
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RACE 6
WIN - MAMA QUILLA -
EW - ABILENE -
LONG -
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SUMMARY :We finish off with a small field Hcap with a couple i like here in ABILENE and MAMA QUILLA so that will do for my Place Pot.
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NOTES :
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All in all this looked a lot easier at first glance however we have at least 3 races im nigh on 100% about a 4th in which im very confident in and a fifth which im more than hopeful it is Race 4 im most worried about but still feel i have a strong hand in this however i will need one or two favs to blow out to boost the payout because if this goes to form then its going to be an lowish Pool..but with less lines im still thinking its profit in the bag ;).

Elsewhere.....

Jack Dexter - 1ST @ 1.99 should be max lump along with Intensified - 2nd @ 1.21 for a MAX DOUBLE.- Fucking Irish racing is a joke, i shall not be going back...EVER!!.

RULER OF THE WORLD WILL WIN ( Famous last words ) the Irish Derby as this rarely goes against form and i see no obvious reasons for any form turn arounds although Libetarian should appreciate this easier track however this was getting pushed along 2f out at Epsom and i have a sneaky feeling that was running through beaten horses and im not convinced the Derby form is that good in general.

MONEY TEAM at 12.5 looks far too big as this has cracking form and won its 5f race in a sub 1m time which for an inexperienced horse is very good indeed and Turner is a dab hand with these young sprinters and i think the players have under estimated this or are just trying to smash into Salford Red Devil and that is pushing the whole market out either way this has nailed on BTL written all over it but is also a good stand alone EW bet....now i just need to find something to double it with. - Unplaced but ran well at 12.0 hitting 4.0 in the run for a good BTL profit, but i lost it back on the Fap..som evens there.

And finally to round my musings off i think i should include CLOWANCE ESTATEwith two runs and two Wins under its belt looks to be a rapidly improving sort and is well worth following.-  
3rd @ 2.61 ;(

TTFN X.

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