Saturday, 5 October 2013

Morning All..

Well its been a funny old week again racing wise with some very odd results in deed as the ground has flipped around the country from Soft to Firm to Soft....
We seem to be having quite a mixed bag with the winners coming from a variety of stables and bloodlines and with nothing proving outstanding although its nice to see the trio of Kings Theater , Oscar and Kayf Tara get off to a flying start in the NH game and these three will form the backbone of my winter game with a few to come from the Westerner hopefully and hopefully we can see a couple of surprises again...

So what do we have for our usual Satdee extravaganza??....well we have a nice looking card for Ascot and a decent looking event or two at HQ..and dont forget its the ARC this weekend and i will have a full review of this for tmrw..>>

For today tho i am going to examine the Favs at Ascot and decide " are they Gay or shall we Play ? "...and give any other thoughts en route >>


RACE 1 : STEPS @ 7.6 - LAY** - 1st @ 7.20 ( Hit 15.0 IR so a nice profit to start the day )
We have a 15 runner listed event to kick the day off and with a lot of old faces on show it will be nigh on impossible to use any literal form to work out.
The current Fav is STEPS @ 7.6 and is a worthy Fav although he was bitterly disappointing lto showing nothing after such a consistent run and it could well be hes had enough for the season and when a sprinter throws a run like that in it is generally a sign to run for the hills and that is what i will be doing although not literally ..i will just be laying this ..It is a Massive SL ** and must be traded accordingly.
Both New Forest and Eton Rifles are worth looking at in the Fap markets as both are entitled to decent runs here but it is a wide open affair and anything really could triumph here.


Full Result

1st (15)12 Steps (IRE)R Varian58-12 bJ P Spencer11/2
opened 6/1 £3000-£500
2nd (17)s.hEton Rifles (IRE)S C Williams88-12G Gibbons5/1f
opened 8/1 £3500-£500(x2)
3rd (1)nkMedicean ManJ Gask79-1 ptD Sweeney16/1
opened 14/1
4th (3)s.hFree ZoneB Smart48-12P Hanagan10/1
opened 9/1

RACE 2 : HOT STREAK @ 5.50 - LAY - 1st @ 5.95 ( Hit 6.80 IR , small loss as 1st trade matched )
Next up its the Cornwallis stakes and this looks very tough indeed and Favs dont have a great record in this so Hot Streak @ 5.50 has it all against him.
His first two runs were full of promise with a couple of decisive wins however on the AW he flopped and then was outclassed by the useful Supplicant and at no stage has he looked a speed demon so im not even sure if this 5f will be totally ideal although he did win over this trip at York but not in a time worthy of a mention and i think he will struggle in this hot group and is well worth laying.
Outer Space looks very interesting and could be anything after winning its maiden easily ( quicker time than Hot Streaks 5f win )  and anything from the Hannon yard in these events is worth consideration.
Royal Meyzan , Extortionist and Excels Beauty are all worth a second glance and any could win in a tough looking race which will imo be a rough un.


Full Result

1st (14)Hot Streak (IRE)K A Ryan29-0J P Spencer9/2
Tracked leader, smooth headway to lead inside final 2f, soon ridden, clear when edged right over 1f out, ran on, easily opened 4/1
2nd (10)5Outer SpaceR Hannon29-0R L Moore3/1f
Mid-division, driven 2f out, headway under pressure over 1f out, stayed on to take narrow 2nd inside final furlong, no chance with winner opened 5/1
3rd (5)½Kickboxer (IRE)M R Channon29-0S Hitchcott50/1
Soon driven and outpaced towards rear, ridden over 2f out, headway under pressure towards far side over 1f out, stayed on to dispute 2nd final furlong, no chance with winner
4th (12)4Extortionist (IRE)O Stevens29-0Harry Bentley9/2
Slowly into stride, mid-division, driven to chase leaders 2f out, soon ridden, kept on same pace under pressure final furlong, no impression opened 5/1 £2700-£600
5th (6)1Excel's BeautyJ Tate28-11 bG Lee16/1
Led, driven and headed inside final 2f, soon no chance with winner, lost place inside final furlong opened 14/1

RACE 3 : ROYAL EMPIRE @ 5.1 ( JF ) LAY - 2nd @ 5.37 ( But more Importantly is my Max WIN on SECRET NUMBER WINS @ 6.36 ;-)) )
The Cumberland Lodge Stakes now and this race is one i like...1st or 2nd Favs have mopped this up for the last 20 years so i doubt if you will see any shocks on the cards!.
Given the make up and nature of this race i find it UNBELIEVABLE that the first 4 in the field ( from just 7 ) are all 5.1!!!!!!!!...WTF??...
So firstly lets look at the 3 " outsiders " ( hardly with a top end of 10/1...this is a massive SL race hitting 9.8 on the Stat scale and the joint biggest this year )...

REPEATER : Badly out of form having been tried at the 2m trips around the country for over a Year and even then his last run at this 1m4f trip was a average 3rd to Sun Central....Honestly at this stage i see no way this can turn its season around here....not even the switch to o'Meara could galvanize it....easy to ignore / Lay.

HAJRAS : Has no distance form , isnt in any real form having just the one run from a lay off ( will come on ) and is upped in grade for this and i would again say this is another that is easy to leave alone although it is an MJ horse so who really fucking knows...could trot up by 10L and make us all look like mugs!!...Wouldnt Lay it but it is easy to leave out.


MIIJHAAR : This is slightly harder to predict as it has bits of older form that entitles it to respect although the best of that was probably over 1m2f ( almost dead heated with Gatewood ) this does like to try and make all and will struggle with that tactic today as its up against classier opposition than when its been victorious doing so, ultimately i also think this is a fail and with that is becomes a lay.

In summary i think the outstanding bet here is a mass dutch at 5.0+ on the other four...this in my eyes looks absolutely nailed on. ( 1st , 2nd & 3rd )

As for the outright winner..well that is trickier..i am going to stick with SECRET NUMBER ftw as i have done so all season and it owes me , this has been on the receiving end of some shitty rides , misfortune, bad placement and poor luck....This is due a good win and now back at his best trip will be a major player..- 1st @ 6.36

The one interesting fact for me is this @ 12:01 the 4 favs are all 5.1 yet from the four 3 of them have attracted bets totaling £15k each yet GOSPEL CHOIR has attracted trades around £50k !!....yes three times or more or another way...Gospel Choir has attracted more on its own than the entire field combined....!!..Now that is a stat i find very any other race this would be a massive FBET but not today..yes a saver is in order but im not going against my lemming bet>>...but such a great WOM earns respect.

ROYAL EMPIRE @ 5.1 is the SL > 

Full Result

1st (2)Secret NumberSaeed bin Suroor38-7S De Sousa4/1
2nd (6)Royal EmpireSaeed bin Suroor49-3K Fallon4/1
3rd (1)GatewoodJ H M Gosden59-0R Havlin3/1j
opened 7/2 £2000-£500(x2) £7000-£2000(x2) £1400-£400

RACE 4 : SOUL @ 6.4 - LAY - Unplaced @ 5.30
Another intriguing race with a lot of old enemies lining up to do battle but this Group 3 is right on the money for a few of these that have been outclassed in Class1's or so this season.
The fav here is SOUL @ 6.4 and is yet another SL* in a tough race , this does represent a drop in class today and he will find this an easier assignment than running against the likes of Gordon Lord Byron and Mince but it was also rather easily beaten by these and a lot has to be taken on trust here and with some decent opposition i will gladly take this on.
Heeraat is back in his right grade and could easily take this if in the mood, Hoof It was probably Europes top Sprinter a couple of years ago but injuries and a lack of racing has seen him regress and although i think it would be great to see him win, i think his best days are gone.
Secret Witness and Hitchens both have it in them to run big races and win at big odds and are worth a punters bet but for me i do like the look of FREE WHEELING by Ad Valorem , this has a very interesting profile and this could run a tasty race EW at 16/1 or better...( Hit 2.2 IR from a BFSP of 18.0 ) 


Full Result

1st (7)16 Tropics (USA)D K Ivory59-1 hR Winston9/1
2nd (9)17 Music MasterH Candy39-0 t1D Sweeney8/1
3rd (13)Hoof ItM W Easterby69-1K Fallon13/2
opened 8/1
4th (2)s.hHeeraat (IRE)W J Haggas49-5P Hanagan10/1
5th (17)¾Free Wheeling (AUS)Saeed bin Suroor59-1 vtR Havlin14/1

Hahaha now we step into the realms of fucking stupidity with a 17 runner 7f charge....ASCRIPTION @ 5.0...LAY ALL DAY !!.....what else can i say.....fill your boots.


Full Result

1st (12)11 Heaven's Guest (IRE)R A Fahey38-13R L Moore (5)9/1
opened 14/1
2nd (11)nkBertiewhittleT D Barron59-0J P Spencer9/1
opened 10/1 £10000-£1000(x2)
3rd (10)nk12 Loving SpiritJ A R Toller58-13Robert Tart (3)8/1
4th (6)Arnold Lane (IRE)M R Channon49-9S Hitchcott33/1
5th (14)hd10 Redvers (IRE)E F Vaughan58-13 bP Cosgrave10/1

RACE 6 : NARGYS - BACK - EW - NAP - Unplaced - Disappointing ;-(
And we round the day off with a nice Fillies Listed event and NARGYS @ 4.2 looks rock solid now the rain has arrived, this hosed up lto and the small penalty will matter little today as she ran like a group horse lto and i can sense an easy double up on the cards.


1 > 6 , 8 & 17 - 2nd ( 17 )
2> 4 , 5 & 8 - 2nd ( 4 )
3>  3 & 7 - 1st ( 7 )
4> 1, 6 & 16 - 1st ( 16 )
5> 7 , 8 10 & 15 - All Unplaced ( 2,9,11,12 ) - Nos 10 was a Head away from 4th ;-(
6 > 1 - Unplaced

216 Lines @ 25p ;-)
 2 X EW DOUBLES with both Gospel Choir and Secret Number > Nargys - 1st @ 6.36 ( Secret Number ) & Unplaced

That will do for now.....Have a great day off to check up on Longchamp >>..ttfn x


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