Saturday, 26 October 2013

The Joys of 5am >>..

Yes for some unfathomable reason i got up with the larks this morning and not feeling that great for it tbh but hey ho...
Last big hurrah for the Flat Season today as we have the Final Group race of the Year in the form of the Racing Post Trophy which for many is a pre cursor to next years Classic hopes as previous winners have included the likes St Nicholas Abbey , Camelot , Motivator and Authorised so as a blue riband event this is a quite an important one,
The race itself has been a safe haven for Favourites over the last 10 years with many and not all at short prices although 99/00 and 05/06 were rather anomalous years in the sense that both of these year coupling's resulted in big double figure odds winners but that def is not the norm although that said this year could see a big priced anomalous winner as this looks quite wide open.

So what to do today?..well i think as Time is of a premium today i would just pick out four of todays biggest races and have a look at them...

RACE 1 : Galiway / Piping Rock - 1st @ 3.98 ( & 2nd @ 3.65 )

Worthington's Whizz Kids Stakes (Registered As The Horris Hill Stakes) (Group 3) (Str)

..This is a nice looking race for the 2 yr olds and although it lacks the prestige or the class of the Racing Post Trophy its still a decent enough race in its own right and we do have a couple of above average young uns in the field.
Firstly we have to mention PIPING ROCK from Hannon , this strapping Dubawi Colt hacked up in Heavy going lto and will have no problems with this ground today, its form is rock solid having smashed Hartnel to pieces lto and that franked the form by smashing up a good field from the front yesterday , so it has the going, loves the trip , can quicken off any pace and more pertinently can do it on this bog like ground and does look to have a bit of class so has to be the winner right?..
Well im not so sure , as im very wary when Fabre sends a lone raider over from France and today we get to see GALIWAY an unbeaten ( onced raced ) son of Galileo and with Peslier taking the reigns i have to give this every chance without ever actually seeing it run but i dont think he would send a horse over if it wasnt capable of running to at least 105 and that alone would put him in the mix....if he can run beyond that and prove really good then the Win beckons however it is a tall ask for such a young and inexperienced runner but not beyond its grasp imo.
TBF without these two runners this is nothing more than a good Grade 3 Hcap and you can pick any one of five or 6 that will be winning or in this case running for places so i feel its pointless looking elsewhere and at the odds the only bet i think worth considering is a WIN Dutch.


Full Result

1st (7)10 Piping RockR Hannon28-12P J Dobbs3/1
In touch, headway over 2f out, led over 1f out, soon hung left, ran on strongly opened 7/2
2nd (3)GaliwayA Fabre28-12O Peslier5/2f
In touch, pushed along halfway, headway over 1f out, stayed on well inside final furlong, never reached winner opened 15/8 touched 11/4
3rd (8)¾Day Of ConquestR Hannon28-12J Fortune25/1
Prominent, led over 2f out, headed over 1f out, kept on same pace



Betfred Monet's Garden Old Roan Chase (Grade 2 Limited Handicap)

..This looks a very strong renewal with quite a few having very strong claims but none more so than WISHFUL THINKING if fully fit and ready to go, 2nd in this last year and a previous CD Winner this is imo the Class in the race but has been beset with training isues which is a shame as its my beleif that if this could have been kept tip top and without its breathing problems then this would have been one of the greats....
WALKON offers a huge threat to this as this up n comer has it all pretty much , Can race on any ground from Good to Heavy , loves the trip ( also a C & D winner ) has pace and stays on strong, jumps usually very well and will be in the van all the way round.
The only other really worth considering here is EDGARDO SOL but the PN inmate has been a bit disappointing at times and none more so than i had backed it heavily to win the Game Spirit but was comfortably beaten by Wishful Thinking > for me the jury is out although i would not be at all surprised if this run a big race.
Best " Outsider " is imo Carrickboy ( currently 30/1 ) , this long striding sort by Silver Patriarch loves the softer going, stays and can jump like a stag when in the mood and has generally contested at the higher levels and with a good deal of success but is prone to a stinker or two and some lazy habitual jumps...if he is in the mood he could run a very tidy race and could be good for a trade.
* I will also be having a For profit Saver on Walkon and a trade on Carrickboy as i feel that all these combined should return a nice profit.


Full Result

1stConquistoS Gollings811-0A P McCoy17/2
Tracked leaders, switched right after 2 out, led last, driven out opened 8/1
2ndAstracad (FR)N A Twiston-Davies710-5 tS Twiston-Davies4/1
Led, hit 2 out, driven and headed last, held flat, stayed on opened 9/2
3rd1Viva Colonia (IRE)B Ellison810-4Danny Cook16/1
Held up in rear, headway approaching 11th, went 3rd after last, stayed on, unable to get on terms with front pair opened 14/1
4th511 Mr Moonshine (IRE)Mrs S J Smith910-4Ryan Mania8/1
Tracked leader, ridden after 3 out, lost 2nd before last, no extra flat opened 10/1
5th11Oiseau de Nuit (FR)C L Tizzard1111-8 tJ Tizzard28/1
Mid-division, blundered 9th, soon behind, stayed on approaching last, no chance with leaders opened 25/1
6th6Wishfull ThinkingP J Hobbs1011-10 tR Johnson7/1
Held up in rear, took keen hold, hampered 2nd, jumped right and mistake 4th, mistake 7th, switched right and progress before 12th, bumped 4 out, awkward and weakened 2 out opened 6/1 £2800-£400


RACE 3 VALBCHEK EW - Unplaced ( this is in the Bin now )

Bet Through The Racing Post Mobile App Handicap5f

  • (3yo+, 5f, Class 2, 20 runners)

Yes you know i hate these 20 runner magic pin fuckface luckfested shitbox races...however there is a runner here today that for my sins i will be giving ONE FINAL CHANCE to shine!!!...and that horse is VALBCHEK , two years ago this was touted by me as a future classic winner but has been hit with training problems, injuries and various other setbacks so has been both disappointing and lightly raced but has shown an improved attitude on its last couple of runs...actually no it hasnt im deluding myself this animal is a rascal...but it did run with some promise lto and although just 6th was still only beaten by less than 3L and was checked / hampered in the final 1f afetr a tardy start this had to be pushed along at half way then it found its desire and was fairly charging towards the end and with a clear run could have possibly snatched it and now with Ryan Moore riding instead of Father Ted i am expecting a much improved run and performance and i think this is a very good EW bet ( 12/1 ) .

STEPS is an obvious danger as this has been in sparkling form and there are a host of other runners that can all turn in a winning run on the day if in the mood so this bet at best is speculative and at worst it is downright just has to be done.
Best Outsider is imo Tangerine Trees , the winner of last years Abbeye has the ability and is weighted to win if he can return to anywhere near that sort of form...for a punt i think you will def get a good run for your money at big odds ( 32/1 ).


Full Result

1st (16)19 DungannonA M Balding68-11 (+1) bOisin Murphy (5)16/1
opened 20/1
2nd (3)½Hawkeyethenoo (IRE)J S Goldie79-8G Lee16/1
opened 20/1
3rd (12)nk16 Harrison George (IRE)P J O'gorman89-0 tG Gibbons33/1
4th (17)21 Pearl Blue (IRE)C F Wall58-9T E Durcan10/1


RACE 4 : PINZOLO EW - Unplaced - ( The whole race was Garbage )

Racing Post Trophy (Group 1)

..This as previously mentioned looks a very tough renewal with so many having chances obvious or otherwise.
KINGSTON HILL created a very good impression lto winning in soft ground and beating good yardstick Oklahoma City quite comfortably and will surely be the one to beat however there are a raft of quality in opposition and i feel this is worth taking on today.
SOMEWHAT has to get a mention as this is imo the form choice  , this stays , likes the ground and can quicken , although slightly like a students flat ( unfurnished ) this big gangly sort does enjoy getting his toe in.
Century created a big impression when winning very well fto and this will be a leading player although i dont think any of the AoB trio are currently world beaters and will be over bet or under priced and are best left alone.
PINZOLO is a runner i feel could be a bit special and does have the X-Factor , this won very well lto beating a very good runner in Red Galileo who then went onto frank the form by winning its next race by 4L , Pinzolo himself had a lot to do in its race when still 2L down in 3rd well inside the 1f but ran on very strong , this looks a tough ride but also looks very classy.

Best Outsider has to be SNOW SKY , this won its egg n spoon maiden by 11L in Heavy ground and looked very very nice and if the ground cuts up thru the afternoon then this has a major chance of causing a shock , This big son of Nayef will outstay most if not all of these if it becomes a grind....interesting.

If the ground was good or better then i would be on Somewhat EW however as the ground is riding soft then will be having two EW's on Pinzolo and Snow Sky.



Some cracking racing on today , bets on , drink ready...sit back and relax..and Good Luck.


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