Saturday, 30 November 2013

Busy ol Saturday > HENNESSEY

                     

Morning race fans and alike , been a funny old week with a mixed bag of ok and dire stuff but today as we expect for a Saturday is a little better in fact its miles better as we have a host of top quality races spread between cards and a very attractive looking card at Newbury ( which i will be covering today )  be ably backed up with Newcastle ( holding the Fighting Fifth )  and 2 minor meets.

We get to see some top drawer animals today and i think JP has the call on the two biggest ( imo ) stars on show and they are at both Newbury and Newcastle today namely , MY TENT OR YOURS & AT FISHERS CROSS , in these two we have two potential mega stars , not the light weight under performing types already out n failed but two genuine mega stars.

I do feel both are in Competitive races today and will have be to fully wound up to exert their authority however i see no reason why this shouldnt be the case , Hendo's runners are not unfit or short of work but are looking like they need a run and from conversations im having the belief is this...he does have a good portion of Grade / Class 1 animals both proven and un proven and they dont work together but they are so much better than there training partners that they hardly ever come off the bridle in training which i dont really think helps as i feel some need to be fully tested before racing and i also think a little to much assumption has gone into thinking about how well they will do which makes it harder to really to get the bottom of a horse if it is never tested at home.

Are these two god for a double ?..well my answer is yes although they will be short in the Value dept' , there are better betting options in both races and i will examine these further.

So lets take a look at NEWBURY today with a bonus cover for the Fighting Fifth.

                   <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< NEWBURY >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

RACE 1 :

Summary : A nice small field Listed Event to start the day off and a reasonably competitive affair at that.
Hendo has two nice looking sorts here with the stronger being arguably FREE THINKING , this had run well in bumpers last term before starting his career over hurdles at Ludlow this season when winning very easily and never stretched and it is fair to say that this beat little although the 2nd that day has given the form a boost by winning a decent enough Novice event next time out ( 5/2F beating Princess Caetani ) , the third was another Hendo horse that day bought over from Germany and is still unexposed but the 4th was a 100/1 shot ( beaten around 18L ) so it was a good run carried out with the minimum of fuss but showed us little, this can and will improve a great deal more but will have to imo as it has not only its stable mate to beat but a few other strong looking sorts from decent yards and none more so than the Willie Mullins inmate VICKY DE L'OASIS which holds a similar profile to Free Thinking , Won a couple of PTP's then won its debut race with ease ( again beating little ) and is quite well thought of but you simply have no real idea of just how good she is.
Its my opinion that this could be quite a tight race and the value lies with FREE THINKING at 4.3 ( against the 2.12 of V D L'O ) and this will be my play.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

WIN - FREE THINKING -
EW - BRIJOMI QUEEN -
LONG - THE PIRATES QUEEN - 2nd @ 16.20

STAT LAY -  VICKY DE L'OASIS  @ 2.14 - UNPLACED ( WIN )

RESULT :

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1stAs I Am (IRE)D E Cantillon511-0Conor Shoemark11/2
Led in start, jumped well, made all, clear approaching 2nd until after 4 out, came clear again before last, kept on strongly flat, ridden out, unchallenged £3000-£500
2nd9The Pirate's Queen (IRE)A King411-0R Thornton12/1
Held up in rear, good headway on inside to chase leaders 3 out, went 2nd before next, pushed along in well held 4 lengths 2nd when blundered last, no chance with winner, stayed on for 2nd
3rdVicky De L'Oasis (FR)W P Mullins411-0R WalshEvsf
Tracked leaders in 4th, smooth headway after 3 out, disputing well held 4 lengths 2nd last, kept on same pace in 3rd flat opened 11/10 £2000-£2000 £1000-£1000(x3) £500-£500 £500-£550
________________________________________________
RACE 2 :

Summary : Next up is another small but very tight and competitive race, this time a Hcap chase with very little separating the field.
BLACK RIVER is an obvious place to start as this French bred sort was wanted by my friend IDK to sell to Hendo but he was out bid and Graham Wyylie got hold of it n sent it to Maestro Nicholls.
This had won a couple of Hurdle races round the provinces with consummate ease before getting snapped up and the trainer does well with these types and this could easily be good enough however we have also seen with Fago and L'Unique that they can also disappoint , they are generally bred for stamina over speed and if this turns into a sprint he could easily get found out and even more so with it being his 1st run of the season.
In all honesty i am struggling to find an angle into this race as the remainder are so tightly knitted together...so my play here will be quite simply a LAY on Black River.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

WIN - VALDEZ - 1st @ 3.20
EW - FLAMING CHARMER -
LONG - N/A -

STAT LAY - BLACK RIVER @ 2.62 - UNPLACED ( WIN )

RESULT :

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1stValdezA King611-5R Thornton2/1
Held up in rear, headway 7th, tracking leaders when left 2nd 8th, led next, clear before 4 out, went markedly right next, very easily £4000-£2000 £1000-£500(x2)
2nd24Un Bon P'tit Gars (FR)Nick Williams510-9R Johnson11/2
Led, blundered 2nd, headed 9th, chased winner, pushed along and no impression from 4 out opened 6/1
3rd9Flaming Charmer (IRE)C L Tizzard510-10J Tizzard11/2
Tracked leaders, not fluent 9th, pushed along outpaced and no chance after 8th, kept on to 3rd run in opened 9/2
________________________________________________
RACE 3 :

Summary : Now this is more like a Saturday race...an 18 runner 2m6f Hcap Chase....this will be fun n games assured and could well be one for the magic pin.
My HCE Sat Tipping Comp selection goes here as i have an EW on VIOLIN DAVIS a horse that blew hard fto and weakened quickly once his chance had gone but will strip fitter now and this classy son of Turgeon  ( C & D Winner ) could easily get into the mix if enjoying these bigger fields.
Also.....
With three course wins to his name, supporters have every right to expect another bold showing from recent Cheltenham winner Handy Andy. Violin Davis will strip fitter for her run at Carlisle while The Druids Nephew shaped nicely at Stratford. Bangor third Opera Og doesn't look badly treated but is taking on better opposition today and No Secrets has his first start since pulling up at The Festival in March. CARRIGMORNA KING still has a bit to learn about jumping fences but is very lightly raced and proved his well-being with a win over hurdles at Wincanton nine days ago, though was probably booked for second when the leader fell at the last. He's weighted to reverse Ludlow form last season with Arthur's Pass and we'll give him another chance here. Ruben Cotter is better than he showed behind Handy Andy at Cheltenham but might find this on the short side while What A Warrior still looks too high in the weights.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

WIN - CARRIGMORNA KING - 2nd @ 6.36
EW - VIOLIN DAVIS - 5th
LONG - RUBEN COTTER - 3rd @ 16.20

STAT LAY - N/A -

RESULT :

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st13 Tatenen (FR)R Rowe911-5L Aspell14/1
opened 16/1
2nd811 Carrigmorna King (IRE)P J Hobbs711-6 tR Johnson9/2f
opened 15/2 £5000-£700
3rdRuben Cotter (IRE)P F Nicholls711-11D A Jacob10/1
opened 9/1 touched 8/1
________________________________________________
RACE 4 :

Summary : Now its a Hurdle race with 17 runners and another that is almost impossible to decide upon with any real confidence.
SL Verdict > David Pipe has acquired the former Grade 1 winning hurdler Punjabi and Tom Scudamore rides the 10-year-old in this, though he's not the force of old and the stable may have better prospects with Shotavodka. The latter is only a couple of pounds higher than when second at Bangor and Kieron Edgar takes off 7lb. Mischievous Milly made a promising comeback in a Listed race at Wetherby while Native Gallery has the past form to figure. Don't Be Late reserves his best for Worcester, however, and Gibb River may need another run or two to put him straight after a lay-off. The Bear Trap doesn't always find a great deal off the bridle but should be in the firing-line, while Citizenship is potentially well treated on his first start for Venetia Williams. Saphir Du Rheu is unexposed, as is Master Of The Game. But so is GASSIN GOLF and the handicapper may have underestimated Richard Lee's four-year-old. Though still a maiden, the bottom weight has run some fine races in novice company and deserves a change of luck.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

WIN - ** GIBB RIVER ( SHOTOFVODKA for the PP ) - Unp ( 2nd )
EW - BATONNIER -
LONG - GASSIN GOLF -

STAT LAY - ** GIBB RIVER @ 6.8 ( KB ) - UNPLACED ( WIN )

RESULT :
________________________________________________
RACE 5 :

Summary : Now we have the big one , The Long Walk Hurdle over 3m and a race that primarily revolves around AT FISHERS CROSS >...There are a couple of very useful performers in this small but elite field but i will be very surprised if AFC doesnt win this today , primed for the big targets and this £30k race falls into that cat' , a C & D winner that has won on Soft / Heavy and Gd-Soft will have no problem with the trip, ground , track or obstacles and ticks every box and his last 2 Victories alone in the Sefton and the Albert Bartlet ( @ Aintree and Cheltenham )  were  easily good enough for him to take this , if he has improved since March then he will win by at least 5l and comfortably , if he hasnt then he still wins but may have to battle Reve de Sivola to the line for it , im hoping that this super classy sort will win by more than 5L and in doing so confirm his arrival this season as a major player in all the big staying hurdle events.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

WIN - AT FISHERS CROSS - ( NAP ) - Jumped like a pig...
EW - N/A -
LONG - N/A -

STAT LAY - AT FISHERS CROSS - ( Regrettably...not Laying this obv tho ) - UNPLACED

RESULT :

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1stCelestial Halo (IRE)P F Nicholls911-8 btD A Jacob7/2
opened 5/1
2nd17Medinas (FR)A King611-4R Thornton15/2
opened 7/1 touched 13/2
3rdnkReve de Sivola (FR)Nick Williams811-8R Johnson7/2
opened 4/1
4th5At Fishers Cross (IRE)Miss R Curtis611-4B J Geraghty10/11f
opened 5/6 £1000-£1000 £700-£700 £600-£600 £2200-£2200 £1000-£1100 £500-£550 £500-£600
________________________________________________
RACE 6 :

Summary : This used to be an important Grand National trial but Bobs Worth's victory last year and subsequent triumph in the Gold Cup suggests it can also be used as a pointer towards Cheltenham nowadays. The great Denman won it twice and proven class has become increasingly important in recent years. Lord Windermere is attempting to emulate Bob's Worth, arriving off the back of victory in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham in March. Prince De Beauchene is a Grade 2 winner and supplements a strong Irish challenge. Houblon Des Obeaux beat Merry King over 3m at Ascot but was well behind Lord Windermere at Cheltenham and was beaten by Rocky Creek on better terms at Ascot earlier. Paul Nicholls' lightly-raced seven-year-old is certainly interesting in this while Our Father goes well fresh and may have a bit more scope than Hadrian's Approach. Theatre Guide is hard to predict but has each-way claims if on a going day and Invictus had smart novice form before his enforced break. HIGHLAND LODGE didn't run his race behind Rocky Creek at Warwick in January after beating Our Father at Cheltenham but is 11lb better off here and looked right back to his best when chasing home the prolific Standing Ovation, who was receiving 26lb, at Wincanton on his reappearance. Emma Lavelle's stayer can come out on top today.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

WIN - HIGHLAND LODGE - 4th @ 7.80
EW - PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE -
LONG - LORD WINDEMERE -

STAT LAY - N/A -

RESULT :

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st10 Triolo D'alene (FR)N J Henderson611-1B J Geraghty20/1
opened 16/1
2ndRocky Creek (IRE)P F Nicholls711-5D A Jacob8/1
£8000-£1000 £2700-£300
3rd16 Theatre Guide (IRE)C L Tizzard610-13 tJ Tizzard33/1
4th918 Highland Lodge (IRE)Miss E C Lavelle710-11L Aspell6/1
opened 8/1
________________________________________________
RACE 7 :

Summary : Next Sensation is a young chaser on the up but will need another career-best effort to complete his hat-trick in this better grade. Last year's winner Ulck Du Lin may have needed his run at Ascot but it was another poor performance off the back of two disappointing runs at the end of last season. Rody will do well to defy his welter burden following a break while stablemate Parsnip Pete couldn't follow up his Southwell win off a higher mark behind Anay Turge at Cheltenham. The latter is now 7lb higher but is a consistent type while Consigliere, winner of this in 2009, still retains plenty of ability. TETLAMI may have not quite lived up to early expectations but still boasts an impressive strike-rate and can win his first handicap over fences here off a decent mark. ( Sic: Sporting Life )
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

WIN - TETLAMI -
EW - PARSNIP PETE - 2nd @ 15.50
LONG - FAIRY RATH -

STAT LAY - ANAY TURGE @ 6.20 - UNPLACED ( WIN )

RESULT :
________________________________________________

BONUS RACE >> The Fighting Fifth @ NEWCASTLE .....

SUMMARY >: MY TENT OR YOURS is a very very classy type but did take me 3 runs to be convinced after watching it blow up so timidly behind Chatterbox so i swerved it for a while thinking it may be all show over substance but proved me wrong and did indeed turn out to be quite a star but this will have to be bringing every bit of its A Game to the table today as it faces a couple of serious horses in opposition , Firstly MELODIC RENDEZVOUS a horse that has done nothing but improve and has won a couple of very nice races himself and i reckon the best of those was in the Tolworth Hurdle showing this to be a real classy sort that jumps superbly, travels well and can quicken and battle and MTOY will know he has had a race today against what i consider the Value play in this.
Grumeti and Duke of Navan are both smart types and both will get involved although i dont expect to see them in the firing line approaching the last..this should be a cracking race.

WIN - MY TENT OR YOURS - 
EW - MELODIC RENDEZVOUS - 

BET : ?...This is tricky as MTOY @ 1.8 is tempting but just not enough i would need at least 2.0+ however i do have it in a double so will probably have a win on MR to cover myself however as a stand alone bet @ 4.0 / 1.35 this also offers very little in the way of value and as such cannot be recommended.

I think THE bet here for the casual punter is a PLACE DUTCH on Duke of Navan & Grumeti as this is paying top 3 i think it is highly likely that one of these will place and offers sufficient reward to the punter.

RESULT : 
1st - MY TENT OR YOURS @ 1.84
2nd - Cockney Sparrow
3rd - GRUMETI @ 20.20

Good Luck and Have fun..TTFN X.....

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