Well what a day today was full of highs and well more highs with only a little blip in Josses Hill ( whom i blame BG for as his tactical riding skills were not obvious in this ) , but overall through the day we did very well with a winning NAP and many other winning trades and bets across all cards.
The NAP was a particular highlight as it won with any amount in hand and that gives my Ante post ticket bet on Peace n Co and nice boost as this has been getting stuffed by that at home..;-0)
Can we scoop the Jackpot on Saturday ??...will my three tips for Haydock in ??...will i ever get a winner in the HCE Tipping comp ??....For those of you not yet in this cracking monthly FREE and pay Comp...get the fuck involved ya miserable bastards!! ;-)
If anyone from Premiumukracingtips would like to join our members Facebook banter n tips page for more regular updates and selections then you will have to add me or Jason Coote as a friend on Facebook and then send a request to join...only a couple of very basic rules to adhere to and the door to profitsville will be opened ;-).
Lets take a peek at ASCOT then ....
RACE 1 :
The starts encouragingly as we have a nice 3m Hcap Hurdle with 12 runners and its a tight one as most come into this with a bit of form and some sort of chance and in truth for the Potters its a tough start and a few tickets will be rustling in the wind after this....
With the right weight for ratings in play they should in theory all be coming over the last in a heap..but over 3m in Softish ground this could see a few come home rather leg weary and i will envisage a mishap or two en route to the line , Flintham looks a nice spare for Nico a jockey i like very much and this could be good for a few lbs extra however the current price of 8.20 is a bit on the thin side for me for a horse with a bit to prove and in a race like this i think you will be better off going in with proven over to prove...proven form over potential in a race like this will almost always bring you the winner.
Barton Heather will enjoy the trip but not the ground if it gets much softer so this will have to be monitored but even with ground on the better side of soft i cant see me getting involved at around 9/1. Rascal absolutely hosed up lto and the Skeltons have their string in fine fettle and this must surely run a big race but again the 5.2 is tight considering its been raised 10lbs for that so will have to produce another career best to get in the mix and that is a seriously tough ask Spookydooky is from JJ O'Neil and is bypassed on the basis his horses are running worse than shit right now , Wizards Bridge is of great interest hailing from the hot Tizzard yard and is a horse full of promise but is another that not only fails the proven test but is too short for me to get involved so is overlooked as a punt , The TOURARD MAN however is on the shortlist as its a proven distance & ground performer that also has bags of potential and has been imo let in lightly as i have this rated at 122 with a further area of improvement hike likely to see this get into the low 30's at the minimum and i feel this could end up being a great deal better than most if not all of these ..bordering on Listed or even graded class and i think the 4.6 is a good price even given the context of this race as i had it down at 3.4 - 3.6 so as far as im concerned im getting a whole point more than i expected and to me thats value..i like this as a bet.
WIN - TOURARD MAN ( EW NAP ) - 2nd @ 4.25 ( hit 1.26 )
EW - RASCAL - 4th
LONG - FLINTHAM - 1st @ 9.38
Notes / Result :
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RACE 2 :
Next up is a small but classy chase with a few looking to mend broken reputations in this 5 runner Chase.
For me this is a 2 horse race Between Irish Saint and PUFFIN BILLY as the remaining three although useful look to have a bit to find and Puffin Billy is imo a different class of animal to these even Irish Saint has a bit to prove and has a bit of an attitude problem and if PB gets round in one piece then i feel it wins and wins well and isnt far off being a NAP selection and yet its 3.5 2nd Fav behind Irish Saint who got beaten by habitual non trier Vibrato Valtat last run and goes up in trip..quite significantly and with so many negs against it i am struggling to see how this exactly is an Even Money shot.....Bookies being bandits imo...
WIN - PUFFIN BILLY - Fell ( Poor jumper and would be better served reverting to a Hurdles career ).
EW - IRISH SAINT - 1st @ 1.88
LONG - N/A -
Notes / Result :
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RACE 3 :
7 Runner Hcap chase is next on the agenda and this although a shit race for punting could be quite profitable as its a massive Stat LAY race with or without trade.
FTW i would say either of this races previous winners ULK DU LIN or LANCETTO as both have very strong claims and around 5/1 the dutch this is an attractive " punt ".
WIN - ULK DU LIN - 2nd @ 6.69
EW - LANCETTO -
LONG - BALLYGARVEY - 1st @ 5.84
Notes / Result :
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RACE 4 :
JLT time todays big race well certainly in stature as we yet again encounter another big race ( almost £80k up for grabs ) with a paltry turn out and paying down to 8th with 5 runners im sure there are one or two owners thinking " why cant i get small share of that ? "....but i digress lets talk race and this race only has one real talking point ZARKANDER a horse everyone is saying is a reformed character and will stay at pace etc etc...well i for one am not at all convinced if anything not only do i not feel its a thorough stayer buts i also am not sure its an out n out G1 horse , yes its decent and is certainly upto C1 but there are big differences in what is required and when up against the best has pretty much always found wanting but this isnt the strongest renewal and he may win without being tested such is the paucity in strength against it with only Medinas looking a capable threat. Medinas himself turned around a nice piece of form lto when routing the 158 rated Cole Harden having been easily accounted for in its previous race so we know this has game but just how much more is the big question.
Aubsson is a nice sort that is on the upgrade but i dont think it is really of the required class to beat one or two here but is still a very decent sort and if the favs dont turn up is likely to make most as it will look to go from the front and get them strung out.
REV DI SIVOLA has won this race for the last two years and wasnt that well fancied either time and had a nice enough warm up in France behind Zarkander and will have been laid out for this so must be an obvious threat and danger but the truth is that Zarkander will win imo with a trouble free passage and will last home as he showed in France in weak conditions but isnt one to follow in the bigger events against more established stars.
WIN - ZARKANDER - 2nd @ 1.72 ( Done at 1.01 )
EW - REV DI SIVOLA - 1st @ 8.20
LONG - MEDINAS -
Notes / Result :
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RACE 5:
£100K on offer for this Listed Hcap Chase which has at least attracted some decent runners with all 9 runners looking tight in the weights and most come into it having a good sporting chance.
This is another huge Stat LAY race and that will be my angle of attack but for the Potters and Punters we shall look at potential winners n placers.
Last years Winner HOUBLON DES OBEAUX comes into this just 7lb higher and on the back of an excellent run in the Hennessy and for me is the likeliest winner although he will have to fight hard and be on the top of his game if these components click then for me hes the one and the price at 5.6 just about makes it a bet certainly nothing less than 5.50....
The Young Master has gone up around 80lb lol since it started notching up a rake of wins and is another " Hunt Ball " and he will also feel the ceiling of his ability close in and at 3.90 this is a cast iron , nailed on , stone walled LOTD ( This was 1st but traded at 15.0 in the run )...if it wins then i will just hold my hands up and say fair enough but i am more than happy to take it on at those odds.Its my opinion that the biggest dangers will arrive from Hey Big Spender who is doing well in his advanced years and the Nicholls pair...the rest look to be fighting for scraps imo...
WIN - HOUBLON DES OBEAUX - 2nd @ 6.49
EW - HEY BIG SPENDER - 4th
LONG - SOUND INVESTMENT - 5th
Notes / Result :
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RACE 6:
Its the days Finale and from a punting perspective is possibly the days toughest race its an absolute corker , 19 runners in a Hcap Hurdle and its choc packed full of really likable sorts and a few with some class.
We can forget Garde Le Victoire as i have that as my HCE tip and that is the truest Kiss of Death as you will find..seriously the fucker may as well stay at home in its nice warm box and chow down some hay....
So what can win it ??..Well i like Bayan , Shelford , Balgarry , Clondaw Warrior and Pine Creek and a small word for big outsider Jebril as The Commissioner doesnt tilt at windmills readily and he will have had this cherry ripe from a yard i really admire and respect and young Cannon is a fine pilot going places and at 100/1 this could give you a bit of fun with a low outlay....From the 5 i am Keen on Bayan is the most consistent and will be thereabouts stirring up trouble and is good for a FAP whilst SHELFORD comes into this having attracted a lot of support for a tilt at Cheltenham on the back of some fine victories and there will be some anxious holders of ante post vouchers holding their breath but this couold and should be good for another 20 odd lb rise in the weights such has been the manner of his wins in particular making all to beat a rock solid field lto into submission..not flash but resilient , strong and reliable this horse is going places and today could see it rise right to the top.Pine Creek is not without ability and could easily have a say if in the right mood whilst Clondaw Warrior is trained by Mullins so has to be respected but his UK record is not sparkling so until Cheltenham the fear factor is off and BALGARRY at big double figure odds probably represents the best value bet as Pipe has no peers when it comes to readying a horse from a lay off and this ex French sort has shown enough in his runs to date to suggest he can play a part although this is the proverbial pit of for for a seasonal debut.
WIN - SHELFORD - 4th @ 6.40
EW - BAYAN - 1st @ 19.97
LONG - PINE CREEK - 2nd @ 13.11
Notes / Result :
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Have a great day all...i may not be around tmrw..so GL >>>
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