Hiya Race Fans ,
Yes the weather has sure turnt a tad cooler now as its proper jumpers n jackets time however the rain has been minimal which has kept the ground on the better side of good not that you would have thought so after i had played golf on Tuesday n the ground at Boothferry was almost bog like....very very tough conditions as every shot had to be played on the top side of sweet but i hit 34 points which was very good imo considering the conditions however it must also be pointed out that for the first time ever i smashed the putting to bits hitting 6+ 20 footers for 1 putt holes which secured me a good few points!!...its days like that when i need everything to fall into place...but there is always something that lets me down , some part of my game that fails and i can never seem to quite get everything going at the same time...i could play next week and drive every hole 250 yards straight down the middle then end up 3 putting everything...its a game of fine margins but if im to truly get my Hcap down from 24.2 to the 18 which i believe i can play then i have to find some consistency and belief...hopefully 2015 will be my year once the new magic Cobra's have kicked in ;-).
So onto racing , what do we have for your fine selves today ( Friday ) ? well after a muddling , middling week with little action thats whets anyone's appetite consisting of small field sizes with dubious quality ( good fro Stat Lay and PPL i might add ) we move into the weekend at what feels like a snails pace but with a warmth as we have some very smart racing on the Saturday and a nice weekend warm up at Sandown for the Friday and although im not doing a full card for the Friday meeting i will do a breeze up and give some general advice and the odd tip as we peruse through it.
So lets look at Sandown ,
We start the day with RACE 1 a Juvenile Hurdle a race type i specialize in so it would be nice to think i can start in the black and take the rest of the day on all cashed up ;)..but its a small field thats split into two groups..6 runners and 3 have previous form and winning form at that and the other three are all untried and those 3 newbies are all decent flat sorts rated in the mid 70's low 80's ( all lightly raced ) and 2 have shown progressive winning form over flat staying trips and the likelihood is that they will all stay on good ground or better but the forecast soft or heavy could prove a problem..but its guesswork and guessing...so im going to presume that they will for now.
Baron Alco who won fto is a ok future project but Dom Alco progeny more often than not require further and will usually come into their own over 2m6-3m+ so to see one win over the minimum is somewhat a surprise but none the less it did and again albeit it was in a poor field of poor quality with the second only rated around 56 on the flat and significantly weaker than those he will face today and at the current 3.05 this is not even worth an after thought i would have thought either betfair or even Oddschecker would have had a decently formed market as i reckon this be around 4/1 and even then its not worth a bet in fact i would need a ridiculous 10/1 to just take a 2nd look..
The Fav Baraka Des Thaix who is currently odds on is appalling value and is not worth backing but is he worth laying ? , well at 1.63 i would lay this son of..guess who ??...Dom Alco all day long...if there is anything here half decent and with a touch of pace this thing is fucked...it needs a minimum of 2m4f..period...so if you can manage a Lay at odds on i think that could prove a very astute bet and def not a back bet.
BIVOUAC will love the ground and the trip and is bred to be quite smart over these trips and its just a shame we didnt get to see a real show of ability when it run at Auteuil as it pulled up however i have it on good authority this is quite a smart prospect but Hendo has not only been a fucking joke with his info of late but his string either fire red hot or stone cold so i have no real idea what to make of this saying that it was an IDK purchase and he said this thing would have ended up listed class on the flat if they had continued and is one he would have liked to have kept but his business is spotting , buying and selling ( which he also does with Emma Lavelle , Venetia Williams and Nicolls ) so i will keep my powder dry for this if i can get at least 4/1 as i think that is its price and at that its worth a decent tickle or at least is worth having in a dutch.
Classical Art is Pipes so called second string and its also owned by the powerhouse Simon Munir who is developing quite an impressive string of horses and to say its a 2nd string is quite an insult to a horse that could easily be involved at the finish and will probably be a point or two higher than it should be and is worth a consideration.
Quebec is another French sort and won his maiden quite easily but at a far lower level than what should be required here and with that in mind this has to be the rank outsider and one to forget...for now but should be watched and followed if dropped in grade.
Storm Force Ten is a very interesting runner as Balding doesn't entertain many in this sphere and the ones he does need to be respected and this two time middle distance winner could prove a very decent recruit with only the ground being a possible negative but at anywhere over 8/1 this becomes a positive bet to nothing.
SUMMARY : The ground i think is the key here as i feel if this turns into a savage drain in energy sapping ground then the Dom Alcos will prove hard to beat however if on the day the ground is anywhere near resembling good then the Bivouac and Storm Force Ten can utilize their superior between the sticks speed to
gather up a nice enough bout of momentum to render a dour stayer useless...i think you will need to wait until about 30 mins before the race to really make your mind up but at this early stage i will just take on the Fav...and may load up again tmrw...because i fancy having some bets...yes the boots are on and the gun is loaded ;-)).
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Race 2....wow this took some getting to lol...Right now we have a Hcap Chase and these along with Beginner Chases are a right fucking nightmare for punters...these races require Dicky Hurd and his magic Pin but hes not here so i will have to try and find the answer the old fashioned way..what i will say is this..this is a massive Stat LAY race and i will be laying whatever is fav 5 mins before the race...this will generate a profit thru trading for sure but is also a highly profitable system ( long term ) to follow.
As for finding the winner well thats an all together trickier matter as the are weighted to within a whisker of each other and all come into with a case as conditions favour no one.
SIR MANGAN has to be the token EW selection as it arrives in good heart and in form , has the best and most recent relevant Chase form , stays this trip well and will like the ground so having checked off pretty much every box this surely has to run a solid race and is worth a few quid EW or FAP.
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So we amble over to Race 3 and this is a 5 runner hurdle but not any old 5 runner affair i may add but a delicious looking Grade 2 event ( former Winter Hurdle ) and there is pretty much fuck all separating these runners and i reckon this could be a bloody decent race.
Third Act probably isnt upto this grade or class of rival even if he settles so is rather easily dismissed..so that leaves 4 and the early Fav is Vyta Du Roc and once again i am informed that this thing is red fucking hot and its gonna take on Everest and win by a million lengths etc etc , blah blah blah.....this tho has got some decent looking form to back up all the hyperbole and lto it beat a very good yardstick in Emerging Talent and had Commissioned a further 25L further back and that multiple winner has cracking lateral form with the likes of Listed and graded runners Guitar Pete and Ballyglasheen which does nothing but add further spice to an already good looking race.
The trainer of Emerging Talent P Nicolls will have a real good handle on VDR so his runner the unbeaten Grey Mare Tara Point has to uber interesting as this has thus far beaten nothing of note but it beat them mercilessly ( won by 15L and never ran more than a common canter to saunter home )and as yet is untested but does love to get her foot in and will love the conditions and must surely be up there come the final 2 fences and final 2f....this is another that could easily be heading to the very top and looking at the past winners of this trial i would say " follow the form of this race with gusto "....
Shantou Bob is another that arrives in great form and is the third horse to arrive here on the back of a Hat trick ( this is actually on a 5 timer ) and with a newly fitted tongue tie could easily improve more and seeing how had them all ( in his last race ) strung out like the proverbial washing this has to be a gimme..surely ??...but improving enough to be in this class is not enough to say it can win as i think it needs another 12lbs to really get involved and competing for the winners band.....and similar comments can be applied to Ordo Ab Chao a really wonderful looking Gelding by Heron Island that like the others will be winning more races but today is a big step up but its one i wouldnt be shocked by if it won.
SUMMARY: Well this is very tough to call with most having not even the width of a Gnats cock to separate them but im gonna stick with Hendo the fat cunt and hope hes having one of his non bullshit days....time will tell.
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Moving forward now we have in RACE 4 a race that again is small in size but big in Quality and with the 4 runners they need to be to justify any form of entrance money...£30k a race up for grabs and they still cant get the numbers...what the fuck is wrong with some trainers...i know plenty of decent Hcappers that could travel down and pick up the easy £k+ for 3rd and with prize money down to 6th its going to be equally shared...shame on you guys as i think your doing your owners a disservice.
Anyway lets look at the race and on the face of it this looks a 2 horse race which lay between the returning CORRIN WOOD and BLACK THUNDER and as a match i think its too close to call as Corrin Wood only tasted defeat in the RSA and could be exciting whilst Black Thunder is tried n tested n has all the T Shirts and is a cracking sort that just lacks that bit of class that prevents a win ratio in better company an almost impossible task and at todays odds we dont really have a bet as the dutch is almost a no bet and the lay on Dare to Endeavour is the wrong side of a good bet and this doesnt quailfy as a PPL bet either so im struggling here...if i had to would say Corrin Wood as its a better price and BT has shown some poor jumping in the past which could be costly today...but really its just a race to watch...which is a shame.
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Hoping that RACE 5 offers us more as we move the page over.....i peek , what do i see ???.....a 6 runner conditional Hcap Chase....a sentence from Punting Hell...and to make matters even worse none of these fuckers can be split....so im not gonna wade thru hours of form trawling long n hard to find n angle i am instead just gonna use my Jedi force and see which droid is not the one i am looking for...BALLYALLIA MAN is my token bullshit choice.
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Fina Fucking Lee...RACE 6....this has proven to be more of a bind than i was expecting...first glance at the days decs and i was expecting some good shit....when the reality is , well..its mainly just shit....and not conducive to good punting....well the days finale is one of the days better races and is a fairly decent one for punting so getting out alive could well be on the cards , its a 10 Runner Hcap hurdle with some decent sorts lining up and some good betting opportunities.
THEINVAL races today off the same weight as he was when winning a few days ago as that was a conditionals event so carries no penalty and the marked improvement in form should be noted and i thhink this will take a world of beating today , loves the trip , loves the ground and BG is sticking around to steer this home and im making this my NAP for the day..a cracking wee bet Fourth Act and As De Mee will be good opponents but should only be fighting for places.
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In truth not the best days racing ever but it is what it is and there are some decent looking events at Exeter to keep you interested including 2 x £20k+ Chases.
Vyta De Roc / Corrin Wood / Theinval is a decent looking Trixie for the funsters and workers to put on and forget about...see you all on Saturday....
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