Saturday, 27 December 2014

Saturday Already...!!

Well this is a post born of the midnight oil..,
                                                                 I am obviously awake with a mind a racing and thinking of the racing and what we almost had again on Boxing Day...the Jackpot!!...again i hit 5 winners from the 6 races with a hot fav the faller....tut day...and this Saturday we have another racing extravaganza and with many an option it seems folly to start looking thru everything so i will instead go right back to Kempton in the hope of more riches although the card at Chepstow looks very good and could well end up being the Jackpot card with the obvious highlight being the Welsh National a race in which i will be donating via Handy Andy and Gas Line Boy.

Over at Kempton we have a fairly decent looking day and we will give it a good lets start...


RACE 1 :

WIN - BIVOUAC - 1st @ 3.50
LONG - N/A -


Full Result

1stBivouac (FR)N J Henderson311-8B J Geraghty9/4f
Held up in mid-division, headway on outside tracking leaders when hampered 4 out, chased clear leader on long run to 2 out, closed soon after last, ridden to lead final 125 yards, stayed on well opened 11/4
2nd½San Benedeto (FR)P F Nicholls310-12 t1Nick Scholfield3/1
Raced keenly, tracked leader, led after 2nd, clear 4th, went left 3 out and next, 3 lengths ahead last, headed final 125 yards, kept on opened 9/4 touched 10/3
3rd1210 SwivelJ P Ferguson310-12N D Fehily5/1
Tracked leading pair, tracked clear leader after 2nd until went left 3 out, soon outpaced, rallied into 3rd before 2 out, one pace, no chance with leading duo opened 7/1
4thStorm Force TenA M Balding310-12Mr S Waley-Cohen (3)11/4
Took keen hold tracking leaders, went left and chased clear leader 3 out until well before next, chased leading pair until before 2 out, mistake and outpaced 2 out, went modest 4th before last, hung left run-in opened 10/3

SUMMARY: We start the day with a strong looking Juvenile Hurdle a race type that i like and we have a couple of hot pots in this so it should make for a decent event with fair prices abound.
SAN BENEDETO is a current joint fav and comes here unexposed having just the one run but that was in a soft ground 6f race in France so that form is really of no consequence here however this big son of Layman must be thought quite capable for Nicholls to enter him into a race in which he has dominated of late ( Won this race for he last 3 years with Favs including Irish Saint ) but i have no report on this from IDK ( my man in France ) so will have to assume many things but on the cold hard facts available i will have to take this on.
BIVOUAC is the other Joint Fav and comes into this with much stronger form having shown winning form over hurdles and over this trip including his most recent outing but is that form that good ? , having examined the form i do think it holds up quite well , more so when the form lines involving the very promising Golden Doyen are bought into play and this for me on current form and ability is the one to beat.
Storm Force Ten who was beaten lto by Bivouac looks a rather skinny price at 4.7 as he was flat out n empty come the end , he may improve and should improve but can he improve enough?...i dont think so and i think a bigger danger may come in the shape of SWIVEL a former high 90's rated stayer for Mark Johnston and not without a touch of class this could easily get involved if in the mood for a bit of mud.
I think its an almost impossible ask to expect the winner to not come from this quartet so it then just boils down to preference and taste , Bivouac has the form and ability , San Benedeto is expected to have it all , Storm Force Ten looks promising and Swivel has the class but has yet to taste the trip or the NH experience...all have questions to answer in their own way but ultimately as i have alluded to before i will nearly always side with experience over promise , proven ability over what may be...and for me that means BIVOUAC to Win.
RACE 2 :

WIN - VIBRATO VALTAT - 1st @ 4.0
EW - THREE KINGDOMS - 2nd @ 6.82 ( Hit 1.14 )


SUMMARY: Next up is the " Wayward Lad " Chase over 2m and its a tight field but a damn good looking one and this should be another well contested attritional race.
We open up with MELODIC RENDEZVOUS ( nr ) a horse with undoubted ability and one that last season was expected to go onto much bigger n brighter things but his career has some what stalled of late having shown a few quirky tendencies and although he keeps putting in decent enough performances he isnt setting the world alight and he struggled on hid Chasing bow to beat some very very average types in a poor race and cant be backed until showing a great deal more.
VIBRATO VALTAT is another quirky type , packed choc full with racing tekkers this lovely son of Voix Du Nord travels supremely well but often finds little in a battle and can hang, run awkwardly at the end of his races and he plays silly buggers against these he will lose..thats a given , however if he has his " A " game head on then he has it in him to rip all these a new arsehole...but you just have no idea what mood he is gonna be in none the less the 4.0 is quite bloody inviting i must say.....
Gods Own is another very nice type and this will win more races than most and his last run can be redacted from the annals of history as it was simply a no he becomes a bit quirky himself and will win this and races like this if he is on song but once again your betting to see what mood he is in...GRANDOUET is probably the class in the race but this is a seasonal bow and a very tough one but if fully wound up could easily take it down and the 5.50 is also quite tempting however its THREE KINGDOMS that looks the winner to me today as this is the horse with the proven ability , current form , liking for conditions and really ticks all the boxes including consistency and honesty couple this with the fact he is 10/1 and it becomes a no brainer bet ( Im dutching with VV ).
RACE 3 :

WIN - CLARET CLOAK - Non Runner -
LONG - BALDER SUCESS - 2nd @ 2.18 ( 2 lines )


SUMMARY: Another small field race up next and this its the Desert Orchid Chase over 2m with virtually nothing splitting the field this is a minefield.
Module can win but has promised more than he has delivered recently , Special Tiara seems woefully out of form , Third Intention often flat lines at the buckle end so this looks a three runner race between HINTERLAND , CLARET CLOAK & BALDER SUCCESS with slight preference for Claret Cloak as Hinterland has attitude problems and Balder Success  having to show he is as good now as we once thought plus Claret Cloak is 6.2 against the latter who is on 3.1 and Claret Cloaks last run has shown him to be right back on song a tricky race to call and one where attitude and resilience will win the day.
RACE 4 :

LONG - BALLINVARRIG - 1st @ 4.62


SUMMARY: After a nice kip we come back to scouring the pages of form and we start this late morning run thru with a tough little 3m Hcap Chase that does have a large disparity with the weights with almost a stone n a half tipping top n bottom so Cantlow looks out of it being so badly out of form and giving lumps of weight away and Wings of Smoke comes from the spring/summer yard of Vaughan who is also rather cold currently. My Three against the field will be TALES OF MILAN who has been running consistently and winning well although for a front runner this will offer a different test today and Kempton is more of a speed track rather than stamina then we have BALLINVARRIG who runs consistently but wins little however he has been dropped 2lb from its last run and with some luck in running can make the frame or better if all drops nicely and if this does run a decent race that will give the form with Gas Line Boy a nice boost for his run in the Welsh National and finally we will have SILVER COMMANDER another perpetual bridesmaid it would appear but this is well due a nice win and is rarely beaten by that far so in a race full of if's n but's we have a couple of consistent types and a rapid winning improver against a field of badly treated dodgepots..and with the three all at around 6.0+ this makes for a decent enough dutch.
RACE 5 :

EW - MOLLYS A DIVA - 3RD @ 9.13 ( Out of PP due to Non Runners )


SUMMARY: Next on the card is a trappy little Mares Hurdle and with almost two stone top n tailing the weights this could be won by anyone...However i feel it would be prudent to take a closer look at the form of MAYFAIR MUSIC from Hendo , first run it scoots up in a run o the mill NHF race never extended and is then put into the NHF ( Mares ) listed event at Cheltenham and running with merit in 5th ( beaten only 9L ) behind impressive winner the Govaness and the horse in third has since won 3 of her 4 next races whilst the 4th has run 2nd 3 times and the 2nd has won so that form looks solid , then she beat a Nicolls runner who had been behind her against the Govaness ( solidifying that form ) and Fairytale Theatre then went onto win its next 2 races before running in C1 events ( with some merit although well beaten but then dropped to Grade 3 and come 2nd) it then ran in a Listed 3m event on good ground at Donny and won on the bridle and the horse she beat had just run 2nd in a C1 event herself and was rated that form again looks rock solid then in Nov this year she ran in a Listed event with just 6 runners ( was the stable 2nd string ) and was beaten a long way out behind L'Unique and Caroles Legacy ( quite a decent pair ) and that was on soft ground so was it the ground ? , the opposition ? or just a poor run ?...Well my view is that it was a run that was required and the previous consistency shown has her in good light  and she is every bit worth her rating of 139 and still lightly raced you can hope for more improvement , can she give the weight away? will be a close run thing imo but at around 5.6- 6.0 she is well worth a decent punt.
RACE 6 :


RESULT / NOTES : All unplaced ;(...CHESTERFIELD WOULD have Won had he not fallen at the last and CHATEZ..well no excuses...did nothing..sorry.

SUMMARY: The finale brings us a tricky Hcap Hurdle but this is also a race that holds my NAP for today in the shape of CHATEZ a really likable sort on the flat that notched a rack victories at around 1m and the Alan King charge has not really had to work for either of its opening NH Wins thus far winning most comfortably and the 98 rated flat boy who is getting almost 2 stone from the toppers can outclass and outspeed these , fluent in his jumping and quick between the sticks the ground holds no fears and im not convinced the likes of Starluck and Chesterfield can give so much weight away.

My quick Picks for the Jackpot at CHEPSTOW >

1. 1 / 11 / 13 - 1st n 3rd ( 2 lines on PP 1 x JP )

2.1 / 6 / 9 - 2nd n 3rd ( 4 Lines on PP out of JP )

3. 4 / 6 / 9 -  ( 6 ) 2nd ( 4 Lines )

4. 5 / 6 ( NAP ) - 2nd ( 4 Lines )

5. 2 / 13 / 14 / 20 - 3rd ( Glenquest ( HCE NAP @ 61.0( 4 Lines )

6. 2  /7  /9 - 3rd 

648 lines @ £1 = £648 Spent...4 Lines returned @ £546.30 = £2200 and a £1350 Profit = BoooM

Good Luck.


Copy Halt