Wednesday, 25 September 2013

It's Choosday ;-)...Actually its not its now Whensday ;-P

Morning Folks...

Its an overcast day that is host to an ok day that is leading up to a stellar weekend of racing...So i will need to stay focused and on the ball this week.
Been following a couple of Jockeys lately Oisin Murphy and Declan Mcdonagh and both look a bit special and are worth following ( if you didnt know about Oisin Murphy then you must have been on the Moon for a few weeks ) and the tabbed ^^^ 2 yr olds to follow and breeding plans have been paying very healthy dividends with Intense Focus and Mastercraftsman providing a hatful of winners although See the Stars hasn't been quite as spectacular as expected but they will make better 3 yr olds but the well regarded My Titania is worth notebooking and the older Bahamin Bounty progeny have been doing well and Dubawi youngsters have been going well in these softer conditions.

Now at this back end of the flat season we also start to see some of the better 2 year olds emerging and it often pays to start really looking deep into there birth date as you now get some older 2 yr olds running and having an extra 6 months to develop can often be a big advantage...

so what we doing today??...well not a lot tbh , just some SL's with the members possibly , some trading , some bouncing and a cursory look at everything else...i will take a peak at the late afternoon Carlisle card and examine the Favs from each race...

CARLISLE >>>

RACE 1 :.....Yup i ran out of time.....

MORNING ALL ,

Its now actually Wednesday and as you can see from the above i ran out of time yesterday after spending too much time gassing but as we are warming up to a hot weekend of racing i need to stay focused so i need to get some shit written down as im out playing in a Golf comp tmrw against my old adversary Nick " Faldo " Hardy ;-) and although i did win last time i think it was more him losing than me winning as he was 4 points up ( Stableford )  with 3 holes to play and he simply blew up on the final 3 holes and i did well coming back with Par,Par and Bogey to win by 1 Point gained on the final hole.....So im again expecting a close run event playing both Stableford and Matchplay....Bring it on!!.

                       

So back to Racing and what for today?..well i think we should have a look at Goodwood and get ourselves prepared for the remainder of the week....

GOODWOOD

RACE 1 :LAY @ 5.0 - 1st @ 6.64 ( No Bet due to price )
FRACKING @ 5.0 , This has to be taken on , was an unfancied 33/1 chance fto and ran accordingly then when better was expected next time out it ran well for 6f before faltering and showing little intent for a battle and with so many blue blooded animals on show and some with better form i simply dont see this winning at all.( ~Pissed in by 6L )
The real conundrum here is Richard Hughes...He is employed / Retained by Richard Hannon who runs two here and either could be ridden by Hughsey but he has chosen to ride again for Sylvester Kirk on TRAVIS BICKLE ( 4th ) and at 8.2 this looks an outstanding EW bet but nothing will be straightforward as Sir Micheal Stoute has three beautifully bred sorts on show along with a few others from outside yards, this will be a good race which has been previously won by Workforce ( Stoute ) who then went onto win both the Derby and the Arc.....no pressure then ;-).
Previous Winners :

Race History

YearDrawHorseAWgtTrainerJockeySP
20121Zamoyski29-3J NosedaWilliam Buick7/2
20118Genius Step (IRE)29-3M Al ZarooniL Dettori6/4
20105Dominant (IRE)29-3M A JarvisP Robinson7/2
20091Workforce29-3Sir Michael StouteR L Moore3/1
20088Appraisal29-3R HannonR Hughes3/1
200714Silver Rime (FR)29-3R HannonR L Moore15/8
RESULT :
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RACE 2 : NO BET ( But if i really had to it would be a Lay ) - 1st @ 2.64
DOUBLE BLUFF @ 2.74 , This is a tough race to call with so many having obvious chances and the newcomers bred to be good , this fav does have a cracking chance and is obviously not without ability and cannot be seriously laid unless it hit something crazy like 2.02 pre race.
With it being an MJ horse it cannot be backed with any real conviction either he himself is impossible to double guess...it could win by 6L or stroll in last....you just never really know...but its not worth the risk either way at current odds.
In all honesty unless the price collapses pre race then this is a race best left alone.

RESULT :
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RACE 3 : LAY @ 3.50 - 1st @ 3.37 ( Hit 12+ IR for an easy trade )
GOSPEL CHOIR @ 3.50 , This is a massive Stat Lay ( SL ) so has to be laid on the strength of that alone.
It must be said tho that if returning to anywhere near his proven best then he is Group Class and could probably carry these but his last two runs have shown a regressive attitude and a lot of negativity which would lead one to concur that this has had a fair amount of training issues and with enough ammo in this race its worth taking on regardless.
Pearl Castle looks to be the one to beat , this strapping son of Montjeu cantered home lto over 1m3f and the trip will hold no fears and im sure we have still to see the best of him.

RESULT :
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RACE 4 : LAY @ 2.62 - 1st @ 2.78
GRANDUER @ 2.62 , Although not currently a SL it isnt far away and still looks worth taking on at this price ( i had it in at 3.25 - 3.6 ) as we have just enough on our side to make it the value call but this will be a tight one and Brown Panther makes it harder , this takes a significant drop in trip after winning well lto but is good enough if quick enough.

RESULT :
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Thats it for today as i have once again run out of time.....Jeez at 8am i think i have hours then i look up and its gone 1pm...where does it all go ??...anyway good luck today, have fun and i will see you back On Friday for some full on fun ;-)...ttfn x

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