Wednesday, 11 September 2013

Donny ~ St Leger Day 1 ~

Morning Mofo's ;) ,
Well some decent enough feedback from me old faithful's has given me an idea on what needs to be done thanks for that.
 ( The locals will all be out today ).

So here is whats on offer for today , a Race card with some selected FAPS and at the bottom i will highlight what i feel is today's best EW double ( just from Donny ).



LONG - JAZZ - 3rd @ 6.40

SUMMARY : Tough 12 runner Nursery ( Hcap for 2 yr olds ) to start  and Charlie Hills has not helped me out by pulling my fancy out ( one of two runners he brought ) and it must be down to the ground as the fuckwits were saying yesterday G-F...not a fucking chance its had a load of rain and is good at best ( as described today ) and any more rain and it will just be soft..
JAZZ is obviously of interest as it comes from last years winning stable  ( Charlie Hills ) and comes into this with some decent form from tougher races and has been racing generally against a tougher than average lot.
It has to be said tho that its best form is in races at shorter trips with arguably its decent run in the Norfolk a highlight only 16/24 but only beaten 6L and ran green and i have seen nothing from its runs to date to suggest this step up to 7f with be ideal and with a few here already proven over the trip with winning form i think this should be overlooked today although i wont be shocked if it does win.
FINN CLASS looks to be the safe option here , rarely runs a bad race and consistent with its time figures having won 3 times over the trip in 1m22 / 1m27 & 1m30 and today's penalty will be off set with Louis Steward taking his claim off , those around him with some form at the trip have not really been anywhere near as good and if the young jock gets his fractions right he could take this easily with my only concern being.." where is the pace in the race "..? , as Finn Class likes to track the leaders in general racing off their shoulder and pouncing in the final 1-2f however only Carbonfootprint likes to have a go so this could turn into a muddling affair with no pace and slowly run which would bring them all into it.

BET OPTIONS : FAP on Finn Class with Emaad the Lay in the race even at 9.6 although it could easily hit 5.6 in running so i would say have a small lay at sp and treble it up with a keep lay at half sp odds.


Full Result

1st (14)Braidley (IRE)J D Bethell28-11T E Durcan9/1
2nd (6)Master Carpenter (IRE)B R Millman29-7Andrea Atzeni7/1
3rd (3)Jazz (IRE)C Hills29-1 hWilliam Buick9/2j


WIN - EXPERT - 3rd @ 3.14 ( Matched @ 1.05 )
EW - JUSTICE DAY - 2nd @ 3.46
LONG - N/A -

SUMMARY : Next up is another two tr old race but this time its both a small field and a Conditions race which should make finding the winner that bit easier...*he said...
The first horse im gonna discount is the Hannon trained Expert as i have watched this a few times this season and i still think its a bit " doggish " and the core rating of 93 is imo a few pounds too high ( some right shit heaps put 1 single decent run behind good horses and get rated on the basis of that run...) 
This is also a PPL race so members " watch those bets ".
I think JUSTICE DAY has arguably the best form on offer with its last three runs all being of a very high standard and this does run to a very consistent level every time although on the fractions do suggest it has around 2L to find with the above mentioned Expert.
Free Code also seems to have a bit to find and was thrashed in Ireland lto and its finishing position is flattering as it ran thru beaten horse to pick up some expenses and this really shouldnt be good enough for this based on current evidence. 
Lightning Thunder won well fto but in a slow time although it was her first run and with improvement and all the allowances is expected to get right into the ruck here.
Scruffy Tramp has it all to prove, Ground, Trip , Opposition ,  the lot and cannot be seriously backed with so many negatives.
So rather paradoxically this leads up right back to the very doggish EXPERT which now shouldn't be laid as the remainder look a very evenly matched bunch on the whole and they have a bit to it is with great reluctance that i will nominate Expert as the winner here with Scruffy Tramp as the Lay but at in running odds of around 6.6 >

BET OPTIONS :WIN bet on Expert with a IR lay set at around 1.62 and another IR lay on Scruffy Tramp @ 6.6 and 4.8.


Full Result

1st (4)Lightning ThunderO Stevens28-8Harry Bentley5/2
Held up in touch, headway over 2f out, went 2nd over 1f out, soon ridden, led inside final furlong, kept on and pressed near finish, just held on opened 9/4
2nd (1)s.hJustice Day (IRE)D R C Elsworth29-1R L Moore9/4
Led, ridden and headed inside final furlong, battle gamely towards finish, just held post opened 11/4
3rd (2)hdExpert (IRE)R Hannon28-13R Hughes2/1f
Tracked leaders, headway over 1f out, ridden inside final furlong, kept on towards finish opened 9/4


WIN - JUSTINEO - 1st @ 6.60

SUMMARY : Now e move onto some right fucking fun n games...the Listed 5f Sprint with a right ol bunch here and all form shud be thrown out the fucking window as this lot could race against each other 10 times and you wud get 10 different its Magic Pin time....
JUSTINEO is probably the form choice based on recent runs , Medicean Man is a nice looking sort and Gask is running into form and this could well be a major player , The likes of Borderlescott, Tangerine Trees and Excelette all have the back form to get involved even though they have done little lately, but i think the bet here could be MAGICAL MACEY @ 16/1 a recent Winner and a CD winner that won in a very decent time , arrives in form and could give you a decent run at a nice price.

BET OPTIONS :EW on Magical Macey and a LAY on Masamah.


Full Result

1st (6)JustineoR Varian49-11 bWilliam Buick4/1j
Made all and overall leader centre, kept on well and edged right inside final furlong opened 7/2
2nd (7)Masamah (IRE)M Botti79-11 pR L Moore4/1j
Chased leaders centre, ridden over 1f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, held by winner
3rd (11)hdJudge 'n JuryR Harris99-11 tL Dettori14/1
Led stand side trio, ridden inside final furlong, kept on and held by centre group leaders opened 16/1
4th (4)Excelette (IRE)B Smart49-6P Hanagan10/1
Chased leaders centre, ridden over 1f out, kept on same pace opened 12/1



SUMMARY : Now we have a run o the Mill Hcap spiced up by the fact that its for the retired " legends of racing "  and..Jockeyship will play as big a part in this as current form and Willie Supple and Michael Hills were race-riding a lot more recently than most of their fellow veterans. Supple partners Dana's Present, who won over the trip at Chepstow in July and can probably be forgiven his run on the beach at Laytown last week. Hills rides Callmeakhab for brother Charlie and she should go well along with the other three-year-olds Excellent Puck and Winslow Arizona but Tony Culhane can take the honours on PICENO. Scott Dixon's charge got back to winning ways in an amateurs' handicap at Chester last month and is almost guaranteed to run his race. Broctune Papa Gio may be best of the rest as Pelmanism is better on the Polytrack nowadays.

BET OPTIONS : EW on Callmeakhab.




SUMMARY : Now its the days BIG race the PARK HILL a race over 1m2f for 3-5yr olds and is usually contested by a few likely sorts although this year we have a weak looking race, small field and most have been very disappointing this year.
Gatewood has been a bitter disappointment this term and cannot be considered until it actually shows something, Whippers Boy just doesnt look good enough even against this lot , Ocean War and Out Of Bounds have both been poor with the latter returning from the stint on the tapeta in Meydan and the former having been rather sluggish on his return behind Royal Empire and neither make any real appeal.
ELKAAYED is the remaining runner and although it doesnt look any great shakes has run soundly enough and has plenty of scope so could prove good enough for these here today.

BET OPTIONS :ELKAAYED Is a Stat Lay so that will be my play with the STD trade set in play.


Full Result

1st (2)Out Of BoundsSaeed bin Suroor49-2S De Sousa11/4
opened 9/4
2nd (1)½GatewoodJ H M Gosden59-2William BuickEvsf
opened 11/8
3rd (3)13Ocean WarC Appleby59-2M Barzalona4/1
opened 7/2
4th (5)9Whipper's Boy (IRE)B J Meehan38-9P Mulrennan9/1
opened 15/2 touched 13/2



SUMMARY : A fucking stupendously stupid and retarded race to have in now...18 runner Hcap over 7f....Jeez >>...Secret Art finished ahead of Gold Hunter and Fils Anges at Newmarket in August but they all finished in a heap that day and, at the revised weights, Saeed bin Suroor's gelding is fancied to do best here. But LIFE PARTNER will carry Godolphin's first colours and looks on course for a hat-trick after producing a fine turn of foot to score on his handicap debut at HQ having been held up off a fast pace. He's only been put up 4lb and looks a step ahead of the handicapper. Secretinthepark deserves to win a decent prize after a string of solid efforts over 6f. He's won both starts over this longer trip but is still creeping up the weights. Homage is better than he showed last time while Consign has been in good form in lesser company and warrants respect. Regal Dan won at this meeting last year and also has claims but Purcell just scraped home at Chester last time and has an extra furlong to cover now.

BET OPTIONS : Win on Life Partner.


So that rounds up a very tricky first day and not quite the quality i was hoping for and the changing ground conditions will make things interesting , CALLMEAKHAB and MAGICAL MACEY is probably the best EW double , FINN CLASS for the EW treble with a very poor NAP in know its tough when you have a dog as your NAP, NB would probably be LIFE PARTNER and LIGHTNING THUNDER @ 3.20 is the LOTD...tough day folks...keep it tight, keep it real and keep fucking smiling ;)....Just about got everything wrong here today was expected so no shocks ;)


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