Saturday, 14 September 2013

St Leger DAY

Morning All ,
Yes today is that day , the Season's Fifth and final Classic the ST LEGER is our big race and a cracking race it looks with a lot in this with a good chance and the big news and good news is that Galileo Rock runs after David Wachman ( Trainer ) walked the course this morning.
We have certainly witnessed some strange results this as the ground has softened with none stranger than Morning Post winning at 470/1 ( on BF ) !!! and its been a terrible week for the 1.01 scalpers as we have had 4 horses winning after hitting 1000/1 in running....ouch!!..amazing for some....disaster for others...but thats the rub.
We will start to see a lot of form over turned now as those hoove rattlers get stuck in the mud and just fail to quicken and i think we could be in for a few more shocks today on a very tough looking card at Donny but i will try to smash it today but i will say in advance the card bets and Placepots will be fraught with danger and im not expecting a great deal but Saturday is my play day after the Mon-Fri wage grind ...and of course im expecting my SL's to pay for my fun and keep me in profit and the good news is that PPL has started the month is superb fashion and it would appear that we have finally shaken off the troubling month of August  after hitting a small loss on day 1 we have now had 12 straight winning days ;).
Over at PUK Facebook we have mainly been pushing a few laybets and Fbets out and after a week that saw winners at 25/1 , 16/1 , 12/110/1 , 8/1 and a few around 4/1 we have had two days with a raft of 2nds and a blank day....guess it is going to go like that....when i FAP they win ( or 4th ) but nearly all trade a lot lower allowing me to get out in the run which i do but will seem bemusing , odd or ticky to the followers if they dont know me..but hey fucking ho..thats their problem ;)...If they cant be bothered to ask then i cant be bothered to explain.
On the PUK ~Members only group page we have had a simply magical week with the SL's proving a great source of revenue with a trade hit rate that is is in the high 90%'s which was even topped with a bizarre fun bet backing Charlotte to win Celebrity Big Brother last week and last night she was voted the Winner ;).
Some great football , racing and other sporting action to get into this weekend and as usual i will be online all day to help, assist and advise...lets get cracked on with donny ..see you on the dark side ..

DONNY

RACE 1

WIN - THE GREAT GATSBY - 2nd @ 2.71
EW - TREATY OF PARIS -
LONG - NA -

SUMMARY : We start with the Champagne Stakes and a rather poor turnout of 4 considering there is £90k in Prize Money!!.....
The 4 that remain are very tightly matched ( all 4 will be in PP ) and all are closely rated with all being or having a prov rating around the 105 mark.
The horse i am most keen on is THE GREAT GATSBY  with the trip being no problem but the ground...well that is a different matter you will have to take it on faith that it will act and having watched both his races his action seems to be one that will allow him to enjoy the softening ground.
Cable Bay is the one bred not to enjoy soft ground and could be the one to struggle but in all honesty it would be absolute folly to rule any of these out...very close race to start with.

RESULT :

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (5)OutstripC Appleby28-12M Barzalona13/8j
Dwelt keen soon close up, ridden 2f out, headway to lead 1f out, edged right and ran on final furlong opened 6/4
2nd (6)3The Grey Gatsby (IRE)K A Ryan28-12G Lee13/8j
Led, ridden and headed 1f out, kept on one pace opened 2/1
3rd (7)hdCable Bay (IRE)C Hills28-12J P Spencer5/1
Close up, ridden over 1f out, kept on one pace final furlong opened 4/1
4th (1)13Treaty Of Paris (IRE)H Candy28-12James Doyle6/1
Tracked leader, pushed along over 2f out, weakened final furlong opened 11/2
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RACE 2

WIN - BOGART -
EW - STEPS - 2nd @ 11.40
LONG - SECRET WITNESS -

SUMMARY : From the sublime to the fucking plain ridiculous !!..a 21 runner Hcap in soft ground over 5f ( + 140 yards ) ..Only one winner of this in the last 10 years has started at less than 11/1 which just about sums up the problems punters face. A few of these contested last year's race with Doc Hay coming out on top but third SECRET WITNESS, who was only beaten a length and half, is 10lb better off and makes plenty of appeal at his likely starting price. Barnet Fair, Ancient Cross, Prodigality and Steps weren't far behind but all are worse off at the weights and Ron Harris' seven-year-old can be forgiven his run in the Great St Wilfrid at Ripon last time when he was drawn on the unfavoured stands' side. Ajjaadd was runner-up in the Stewards' Cup at Goodwood last month, just ahead of Burwaaz and the luckless Racy, and has decent claims again while Chester scorer El Viento makes more appeal than fellow recent winners Bogart, Confessional and Zero Money at the weights with George Chaloner taking off 5lb. Definightly and Magical Macey look to have too much weight but Elusivity has each-way possibilities if you ignore an unexplained poor effort in a Nottingham conditions race last time...

Analysis

Roger Varian: "He's so unlucky - he did everything right. It is a bit of a shame he couldn't go and challenge the winner - the winner had the rail and we came down the middle of the track but he has run a great race and there are no complaints. I just feel bad for the horse and the owners. I thought we had just got up when I watched it live - I would like to see the photo. He likes this autumn ground so we will keep trying with him."
Ron Harris: "I am very pleased with him. We have been struggling all season with the ground. We will probably look to go to France with him once we get to the end of the season here. He has only had 10 runs - normally he would have 20 or 25 a season so we might just as well keep him going."

RESULT :

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (12)22 Angels Will Fall (IRE)C Hills49-2R Winston16/1
Close up, headway over 1f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on
2nd (11)nseSteps (IRE)R Varian59-7 bWilliam Buick11/2f
Mid-division, ridden and headway over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, ran on opened 7/1
3rd (14)nk12 Secret WitnessR Harris79-4 bS W Kelly25/1
Mid-division, ridden and headway approaching final furlong, ran on, not reach leaders
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RACE 3

WIN - GREGORIAN - 3rd @ 3.55 ( Fav Placed for PP )
EW - ALJAMAHEER - NON RUNNER -
LONG - RED JAZZ -

SUMMARY : Now its the OLBG Park Stakes and a much better race in both field size and quality with quit a few interesting runners but none more so than my idea of the winner GREGORIAN , this has been holding its form really well , this lto won the Hungerford stakes beating the highly rated Softly Falling Rain and Tawhid and had previously run the decent Declaration of War to less than 2L as well as running Most Improved to a hd in the St James Palace Stakes and Aesops Fables close in the Jean Prix Prat over the last couple of years showing a true consistency plus it has Won on everything from Heavy and Soft to Good to Firm so we know it likes all ground types which is a big bonus and i see no way this is going to run a bad race and looks nailed on FAP.
Aljamaheer , Sovereign Debt and Red Jazz will make this a good race and one to enjoy.

RESULT :

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (10)11 Viztoria (IRE)E Lynam38-11W M Lordan7/2
Held up, headway over 3f out, pressed leaders over 1f out, led entering final furlong, ridden and ran on
2nd (9)¾LockwoodSaeed bin Suroor49-4S De Sousa5/1
Keen tracked leaders, headway to lead over 4f out, ridden and headed entering final furlong, ran on opened 15/2
3rd (6)Gregorian (IRE)J H M Gosden49-4William Buick9/4f
Tracked leader, ridden and every chance over 1f out, kept on one pace
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RACE 4

WIN - FOUNDRY -
EW - SECRET NUMBER -
LONG - EXCESS KNOWLEDGE -

SUMMARY : Big Race time as we head into the St Leger ;)...Over the most recent years this has been a grave yard for favourites with quite a few big double figure winners strolling in as its one of those races where the old adage of " if it stays then its not quick enough to win " sits ruefully at the top and is something to bear in mind for this race..you dont want a confirmed stayer for the Leger you want a horse that promises to stay but is already a confirmed 1m4f winner ...pace beats haste...The one horse i am most keen on seeing out today is the exciting and potentially top class FOUNDRY ( 6.8 ) this has only raced twice and lto was a very good 2nd to Telescope and was staying on at a quickened pace and looks a progressive type with any amount of untapped potential and is an ideal sort for this race.
I am also a fan of SECRET NUMBER which has been the subject of some abject riding and poor luck in its most recent runs and deserves a change of luck and although on a strict form line it has something to find with Cap o Rushes but i can see this reversing form with a clear and better timed run and at 16.5 > looks a good value EW bet.
Finally i also think we can see some improvement from the nice looking Excess Knowledge as this son of Monsun is bred for this race with trip and ground to suit and doesnt have to find much to give them all something to think about.

RESULT :

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (7)Leading Light (IRE)A P O'Brien39-0 pJ P O'Brien7/2f
Prominent, led over 2f out, soon headed, rallied to lead approaching final furlong, ridden and ran on opened 9/2
2nd (4)11 TalentR M Beckett38-11Jim Crowley9/1
In rear, headway over 2f out to track leaders, effort when short of room over 1f out, stayed on to go 2nd towards finish, no threat to winner opened 7/1 touched 10/1
3rd (1)¾Galileo Rock (IRE)D Wachman39-0W M Lordan6/1
Prominent, ridden to lead 2f out, soon edged right, headed approaching final furlong, lost 2nd towards finish
4th (2)½LibertarianC Appleby39-0 p1William Buick5/1
Dwelt mid-division, ridden over 3f out, headway over 2f out, one pace final furlong opened 6/1
5th (9)¾Foundry (IRE)A P O'Brien39-0R L Moore5/1
Towards rear, ridden over 2f out, headway approaching final furlong, no impression inside final furlong
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RACE 5

WIN - GREATWOOD - 2nd @ 6.40
EW - BISHOP ROKO -
LONG - HANOVERIAN BARON -

SUMMARY : After the storm we have a 1m4f Hcap with 10 runners and all 10 have proven to be disappointing thus far this seasonItlaaq, Forgotten Hero and recent Haydock second Guising must all carry more than allotted weight in this while Mister Impatience has been racing over further lately, though was runner-up to subsequent Epsom Derby winner Ruler Of The World over this trip in the Chester Vase in May. Charles Camoin is best over 1m2f but Bishop Roko has winning form over 1m4f, though finished just behind Hanoverian Baron in the Ebor last time. GREATWOOD's last two runs have been in exalted company and he's going to find these rivals much more to his liking. Neither the ground nor trip should be a problem on breeding so Kieren Fallon's mount gets the vote as Voodoo Prince is probably still a few pounds too high in the handicap...

Analysis

Saeed bin Suroor: "He ran well. This horse has improved physically after each race. He tried really hard today but was beaten by a better horse - there are no excuses. We could go to the seven-furlong Challenge Stakes at Newmarket or to France for a Group One over a mile."

RESULT :

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (6)Forgotten Hero (IRE)C Hills48-12 hJ P Spencer12/1
Steadied start held up in rear, pushed along over 3f out, ridden and headway on outer over 1f out, led 1f out, driven out
2nd (10)nkGreatwoodL M Cumani39-3K Fallon5/1
Towards rear, headway on outer over 4f out, close up, ridden to lead briefly approaching final furlong, ran on
3rd (4)nkVoodoo PrinceE A L Dunlop59-0 pG Lee9/2
Tracked leaders, led over 1f out, ridden and headed approaching final furlong, ran on
____________________________________________
RACE 6

WIN - EXTRA NOBLE - 2nd @ 3.63 ( hit 1.03 )
EW - FIRE FIGHTING -
LONG - SIR JACK LAYDEN -

SUMMARY : Nursery time and a small field event that has a very tight look about it with most carrying form and chances into this.
1m is quite a tough trip for any 2yr old so the fact FIRE FIGHTING is proven is a big plpus and it does have a bit in hand via lateral form lines although it may struggle to give 10lb to old enemy EXTRA NOBLE whom he beat by a nose lto only to lose it in the stewards room.
With the remainder having quite a few questions to answer i can not really see past these two.

Evergreen trainer Clive Brittain has already won one valuable nursery here this week and will be expecting a big run from Beverley scorer Dance Bid. Extra Noble was only beaten a nose by the subsequently demoted Fire Fighting at Kempton in June and is 10lb better off so should have the measure of the top weight while Showpiece got off the mark over 6f at Salisbury last time, though the form of that race hasn't really worked out. Sir Jack Layden beat a subsequent dual winner at Ayr in July and should go well but WHAT ABOUT CARLO appears to be improving at a rate of knots and is preferred. He only had to be pushed out to score at Goodwood last time and the second has franked the form since. Heskin is more exposed than most and may struggle to get involved along with the maidens Rudi One Five and Photography...

Analysis

Hugo Palmer: "That was really exciting! You never know when they take that long to announce the result and, to be honest, I thought it would be a dead-heat. We actually thought he'd be a speedy two-year-old when we first got him as he's not that big but in reality, he's anything but and Paddy said that he thought he'd get further in time. He's actually out of a Darshaan mare so there's every reason for thinking he'll train on and get better at three. He was due to run at Kempton tonight but we decided to come here to give the owners a day out and it's actually turned out that none of them could make it. I'm obviously glad we came here now as there are plenty of chances to win on the all-weather over the winter. I've no idea where he'll go next as I've not thought that far ahead. He's in the Tattersalls Horses In Training Sales later on this year but I don't think we'll be selling him now."
Ralph Beckett: "Extra Noble has run a really good race but it is our third second of the day! He hit the front but heard the crowd roar and just pulled up a little bit. He will probably run again and we will look for another nursery over a mile on similar ground."

RESULT :

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (5)Photography (IRE)H Palmer28-0 hP Mathers20/1
Close up on outer, led entering final 2f, ridden and headed narrowly inside final furlong, rallied to lead near finish
2nd (6)s.hExtra NobleR M Beckett28-11Jim Crowley5/2f
Close up, headway over 1f out, ridden to lead narrowly inside final furlong, headed near finish opened 9/4
3rd (2)Dance BidC E Brittain28-6Martin Dwyer12/1
In touch in rear, headway on outer 3f out, ridden to press winner over 1f out, kept on one pace opened 10/1 touched 17/2

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Tough ol day so dont make  tit of your self, keep it real, keep it fun and enjoy the day ;)...

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