Tuesday, 3 September 2013

Today's Favs @ Leicester ...

Morning All ,
It early in the week with the action on the low side and the sand fest that is Laytown hitting town i thought i would pick a card today and examine the Favourites and their respective chances ( Stating BACK or LAY ) and possibly highlighting one or two other betting opportunities...

LEICESTER

RACE 1 : MOCACHA @ 1.61 - BACK - 3rd
This ran a fine race fto coming 2nd in a fairly ordinary Maiden but behind a fairly decent sort in Dutch Art Dealer this was also rated upwards as this moody gelding was difficult to load in the stalls, played up beforehand and then was slowly away showing a great reluctance to race or be at all bothered but did eventually pick up a stride making headway 2f out , going 2nd 1f out was headed for 2nd inside the final furlong but battled for it back showing a great attitude in the end and looks a winner in waiting.
**Statistically LAYING odds on pokes in Maidens is a better play but some simply have to be backed regardless.
***The STATS were right, shudda laid this dog, again reticent to go to post and again just looked uninterested in racing, a moody sort this is not worth a dime.

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RACE 2 : LADY STELLA @ 4.40 - LAY - Unplaced @ 7.40 ( Took a huge walk in the market )
A tricky race to assess as a lot of these have already shown their hands a Lady Stella could have a good deal more in the locker however this has to be taken on trust as this beat nothing when winning easy at Brighton making all and it won in a slow time and although it beat a 74 rated runner lto i feel the 76 rating is maybe a couple of pounds too high as i have it at 68p and make it one of the lowest rated in real terms and i feel it will struggle to dominate against these and may not have enough in the locker to combat a charge from 1 or 2 of these and it fits all the boxes for being a good value lay and is also a STAT lay so everything points to this being a Lay.
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RACE 3 : QUEST FOR MORE @ 3.2 - LAY - 1st @ 3.42 ( Hit & matched @ 21+ in running )
Quest for more is an odd Fav as it has shown very little ability thus far winning a poor race over 1m and being well beaten all other times and showing nothing in his races that points to him being a stayer , needing this upgrade in trip or being worth a rating of 73 and simply has to be taken on.
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RACE 4 : LIBERTY JACK @ 4.1 - LAY - 3rd @ 3.20
This looks a a bit of a " Flat track Bully " and is now looking a bit too high in the weights and has the added bonus of being a STAT LAY and racing in what looks like a wide open affair is an easy Fav to take on.
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RACE 5 : ANYTIMEATALL @ 5.6 - LAY - 1st @ 6.01 ( Hit 32.0 in the run and the BTL advised play was solid )
This is a poor sort but in a very poor race and none can carry any high recommendations and any one of maybe 6 or 7 can win this but the 5.6 is maybe too high to lay in this race given its make up and i would say maybe a BTL is the play here as this looks a fair enough price and should hit 3.6-4.2 without any stress.
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RACE 6 : PEARL QUEEN @ 5.1 - LAY - 1st @ 8.57 ( Thankfully i backed as a BTL as i thought this was a ludicrous price and had to trade shorter, sadly though i traded at 5.2 and missed out on some big profits )
This is a very poor race in which none can be fully trusted to run any sort of race and the fact this Pearl Queen is the current Fav tells its own story...surely must be on breeding and connections as this in 3 runs has done little more than exercise in public and could not seriously be backed but is another that could suddenly find the right level of improvement to get involved but the price is again too high given the race make up and is one that can be used for either a BTL or a LTB but for me i will just put a LAY in at 3.8 in the hope it looks good at halfway before again finding nothing and failing at the end.
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RACE 7 : SHAOLIN @ 2.86 - LAY - 2nd @ 2.74
This is an odd sort dropping back down to 6f after a few runs at 1m , 1m2 and 7f so Seamus Durack must be seeing something speedy at home to give this a go and lto looked very impressive as it went 2nd and travelling on the bit 2f only to fold in the final 1f..but will be able to travel with such authority in a race like this?...Well on breeding alone there is no reason to suggest it wont enjoy a good sprint and if this is a fast run race its extra stamina will be a massive bonus but to me this seems its either a horse that is tripless and they are running out of ideas or its a massive plot and will be smashed to bits  ( has been backed from 5.0 > 2.80 ) and its the latter that looks the most likely , if i am UP at the end of this day i will be chucking some of my profits on it if im down then i will just leave it alone as i cannot justify a LAY on this....then i think some more about it and i find i can justify LAYING this @ the now price of 2.80 , i needed at least 3 viable runners in opposition to make this a solid LAY and i have 4 so i will now be laying this regardless.
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On paper at least this looks a good day for the Layers...lets hope so..


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