Saturday, 21 September 2013

Satdee Special ;]

Morning All ,
Well yesterday went quite well it must be said with pretty much everything going to plan so i have decided to do the same today although the Dubawi experiment didnt really work with 2 2nds from 4 runners the best i got ;(...but he does have another 5 out today so i will try again on the 3 yr olds n under and have a separate EW run on the oldies...
So lets see what we have for today...

NEWBURY

RACE 1 :LTB @ 4.20 - 1st @ 3.79 ( No Trade - No bet - EW Loss on Baker Man )
EXTREMITY @ 4.20 is a big priced Fav in a very tricky looking maiden with a variety of wide ranging pedigree's on show and the mere fact that they going so big on the Fav would suggest even the tissues makers and bookies cannot really identify a winner but that does leave us the punter in a kind of limbo ( my tissue agreed ) as its kind of too high to lay and guessing with a back and no form or market WOM to generate an idea regarding  BTL etc....
My idea of a bet in this race is an EW on BAKER MAN ( Ran well at 8.32 hit 4.0 IR and just weakened in the final 100 yards to run out off a place ) this ran as green as grass fto jumped a path, jinked halfway and nearly stumbled and also stumbled near the finish, it must surely have legs like Bambi ?..but still managed to run on fairly well and wasnt disgraced and with a bit of experience under its belt this could easy run into a place or better at big odds.

RESULT :

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (2)Extremity (IRE)H Palmer29-5Martin Dwyer5/2f
Took keen hold tracking leaders, went 2nd 2f out, led over 1f out, pushed clear final furlong, stayed on strongly opened 3/1 £1500-£500 £1650-£600 £1100-£400
2nd (1)Maxie TM Johnston29-5S De Sousa7/1
In touch, went 2nd 3f out, pushed along over 2f out, outpaced over 1f out, rallied inside final furlong, went 2nd post, no chance with winner opened 13/2 touched 8/1
3rd (4)nseMagnus MaximusR Hannon29-5J Fortune11/2
Held up towards rear, headway over 3f out, chased leaders over 2f out, stayed on to well held 2nd final 75 yards until post opened 7/1
4th (11)nk11 Dutch RomanceC Hills29-0S J Drowne14/1
Slowly into stride, held up towards rear, headway near side 2f out, stayed on inside final furlong, going on close home opened 16/1
5th (10)½Baker Man (IRE)S Kirk29-5James Doyle7/1
Went left start, took keen hold, led, ridden and headed over 1f out, chased (clear) winner until final 75 yards, soon no extra opened 8/1


RACE 2 : WIN @ BFSP - Unplaced ( Poor tactical ride and disappointing performance )
KASSIANO @ 2.40 is a odd Fav as it is one i like a lot but is also a very strong Stat Lay so im kinda in a quandary with this...follow my head or follow the Stats ?...For my head we have the fact that it absolutely trotted up lto showing itself to be as good as ever and for the stats we can say that this is a much tougher race than the last one contested and this does at least on paper look wide open.
Main Sequence is as frustrating as fuck...packed with ability but rarely used and downs tools quite easy and isnt one for a battle thus leaving it open every race to anything with a finish.
This is about as high as Camborne can fly but will probably find one or two too good again and Fattsota is just a half decent Hcapper which is the same comment for Spillway.
GIFTED GIRL ( 2nd ) is the one i would like to see winning this as this has been in excellent and consistent form all season and comes back here after a rattling good run behind Dank in the Arlington D Stakes special.
So all said and done it really does look like this should be going the way of KASSIANO but i will have a wee saver on GG.

RESULT :

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (4)CamborneJ H M Gosden59-3 pR Havlin4/1
£2000-£500
2nd (2)Gifted Girl (IRE)P F I Cole49-0L Dettori6/1
opened 11/2 touched 13/2 £2600-£400 £1800-£300
3rd (1)nseMain Sequence (USA)D R Lanigan49-3 pT E Durcan10/1
opened 11/1
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RACE 3 : LAY @ 3.50 - UNPLACED ( Win )
SHAMSON @ 3.70 is another tricky one to call in yet another race full of question marks but this is also another Stat Lay and i will be taking this on as it has a lot of decent opposition , yes it could prove to be different class, yes it could prove to be easily the best of these long term...yes yes yes...BUT it has yet to actually do it and its racing against others that have done it, got the T-Shirt blah blah and i will nearly always take Have done over Might Do...Plus the fact that those with the proven form have also proven it in smart times with group class fractions and the winner of this ( if not most tbh ) will be worth a follow next year.
From a Punters perspective i will be having a dutch on the two Fahey runners SUPPLICANT  ( 1st @ 4.90 ) & RUFFORD ( 2nd ) as i am expecting more to come from both that are improving and on the up and proven over the trip and have shown battling qualities i like plus TRADING PROFIT yes i know two of these are the rank outsiders but this is a Stat Lay race and i do feel its a lot more open than it would suggest on paper and at the big odds on offer im happy having some fun on these rather than guessing with a lump on Hot Streak or Shamson ( sorry Alan Winters..but good luck )....

RESULT :

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (8)SupplicantR A Fahey29-1T Hamilton7/2j
2nd (4)¾Rufford (IRE)R A Fahey29-1A Kirby20/1
3rd (9)½Hot Streak (IRE)K A Ryan29-1D P McDonogh8/1
opened 15/2
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RACE 4 : EW BET @ BFSP - 4th @ 6.0 ( Shocking ride, tanking at the end and wud have pissed this with a good ride...Pfft )
SAXO JACK @ 7.20  , This is certainly no Lay in such a competitive race and field where literally any of the 13 runners can win and a solid enough case can be made for all them...this doesnt happen very often!!.
I must admit tho i do like the look of SAXO JACK a progressive sort that has been sent over from Ireland to land these spoils and on form alone it has every chance after a lto run that saw him smash the very useful and 103 rated Steps to Freedom and has already proven it likes a softer surface and my only worry is that this may actually want further as it is jam packed with Stamina in its pedigree ( Kings Best ) but it has  ( as stated )  already won so it shown enough core speed to get involved however i would like to see Gary Carroll make full use of its gteed stamina and try n run the legs out of these by trying to make all  or at least be no worse than 4th and then make a move fully 2f out as there are quite a few in this with the ability to quicken and i want this attribute to be nullified by stretching a long way out , this is also my HCE selection today.

RESULT :

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (1)10 HaafaguineaC G Cox38-11Ryan Tate (5)9/1
Took keen hold and close up on inside, headway under pressure on inner to chase leaders 2f out, driven to challenge over 1f out, stayed on under pressure to lead final 150 yards opened 8/1
2nd (8)¾Chapter SevenS C Williams49-6D P McDonogh16/1
Restless in stalls, held up in mid-division on outside, headway over 3f out, soon pushed along, chased leaders 2f out, led inside final furlong, headed and not quicken final 150 yards, kept on
3rd (11)nkVoodoo PrinceE A L Dunlop58-12 pAndrea Atzeni7/1
Held up in mid-division, headway to track leaders 4f out, led 2f out, ridden and joined over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, stayed on same pace in closing stages opened 10/1
4th (4)¾Saxo Jack (FR)G M Lyons38-11G F Carroll9/2f
Held up rear of mid-division, no room from over 2f out and lost place, rallied over 1f out, stayed on strongly inside final furlong, going on close home opened 11/2 £2200-£400 £1800-£400
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RACE 5 : 3 WAY DUTCH - Marrek comes back to form over 5f and i am the Bridesmaid..yet again!!..2nd.
STEPS @ 7.0 ( Ran an unusually poor race ) is another big priced Fav and is another that is impossible to lay whilst its in such rude health...3 excellent 2nds in very tough Hcaps and the ability to race tactically anywhere and on any ground leave so many options for the jockey and this would be a riders dream...This has every chance and for me is a speculative EW in a very tough race but id sooner be with than against.
Tickled Pink also appeals and certainly has the ability to win along with a few others truth be told and York Glory is entitled to win as this usually gives its all every race.

RESULT :

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (8)MaarekB Lalor69-0D P McDonogh9/2
Raced centre, held up in rear, pushed along halfway, good headway between horses over 1f out, strong run to lead final 125 yards, won going away opened 13/2
2nd (10)1York Glory (USA)K A Ryan59-0 bJames Doyle7/1
Raced centre, held up towards rear, headway and swiched right over 1f out, strong run inside final furlong, went 2nd close home, not reach winner opened 13/2 touched 6/1
3rd (7)hdKingsgate Native (IRE)R M H Cowell89-5 hS W Kelly12/1
Raced centre, held up in touch, headway over 1f out, pressed leaders well inside final furlong, kept on opened 10/1
4th (3)¾Stepper PointW R Muir49-0 pMartin Dwyer14/1
Raced centre, tracked leader, led halfway, ridden over 1f out, headed final 125 yards, lost 2 places in closing stages
5th (2)hdBallesterosB J Meehan49-0J Fortune25/1
Raced centre, held up, headway over 1f out, chased leaders inside final furlong, no extra in closing stages opened 20/1
6th (6)2Tickled Pink (IRE)Lady Cecil49-0R Hughes4/1j
Raced centre, chased leaders, pushed laong halfway, ridden over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong opened 13/2
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RACE 6 : STAT LAY @ 2.96 - Unplaced ( Win )
METEROID @ 2.96 Simply has to be taken on in such an open event and one in which it has so many questions to answer .....

RESULT :
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