Thursday, 5 September 2013

Some thoughts on a Thursday....

Morning All ,
Back after a good workout / Practice round @ Thornhurst Manor yesterday ( Got a WPGS Comp there on Sunday ) and played well enough on front nine bar the last 2 holes which were error strewn but my putting badly let me me down and it was a very mixed bag of shots , some cracking tee's , wonderful chips and considered play all of which was ruined by pathetic putting ;(..however had a break in between 9 and 10 , took stock and relaxed and come out all aggressive and positive and i smashed the shit out of the back 9 coming back with a terrific 21 Points which is Bandit territory ;PP...i was extremely pleased with the played coming back and if i can relax as much on Sunday then i have a good chance of hitting 38+..#Feelinggood.

I dont think i missed a great deal yesterday as the racing looked rather low key with a lot of small fields and poor sorts knocking about and today looks a good deal better and so i thought i would take another look at todays FAVS and the meeting of choice is Haydock.

HAYDOCK

RACE 1 : SNOW SKY @ 1.75 - LAY - Unplaced
This is a very trappy and tough looking maiden with quite a few good looking sorts about most of whom are very well bred and a few carry whispers into this race.
Rangi Chase is one i know quite well and is quite thought of and big things are expected from this and this Lawman colt should enjoy the 1m to start off with , we also have 2 well bred types from Godolphin and we also have a very curious sort at huge odds in the shape of Astoidea , Immaculately bred out of Speciosa by Sea The Stars and trained by Pam Sly ( she owns Speciosa ) this could be a surprise package and has to be watched in both this and future races as the dam won The 1000 Guineas, Rockfel Stakes and the 1000 Guineas and the sire won the 2000 Guineas, The Derby and The Arc ( among others ) and if this was trained by say Hannon or Stoute et al then this would be getting miles of newsprint coverage as this has an amazing pedigree.
There are also a couple in here with some decent form and the overall thought is that there is easily enough in this race to take on this rather short priced Fav  , no future entries may suggest it not a stable star and its fto run was a ok 3rd in a modest race and it looked a bit one paced with no turn of foot..easy lay for me at these odds.

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RACE 2 : INVESTMENT EXPERT @ 5.0 - LAY ( LTB ) - Unplaced
This to me is a LAY but not at 5.0 , why?  well looking thru its form and runs to date shows a horse that is not improving significantly and has been running to pretty much the same level each time, lto it was beating just solid horses rated 72-74 and the time before it was surrounded by runners rated 71-74 which shows a good level of consistency however you look at PARADISE WATCH and you see it easily beaten by the improving 92 rated Gold Hunter lto but was in turn easily ahead of a 90 rated sort who was 3rd and for its win was beating runners rated 90+ which shows that on core form and ratings figures this has at least 12lb in hand and the Fav is racing with another 2lb penalty rise but apart from this serious opposition seems rather thin on the ground and on that basis i cant actually Lay it as a bet nor can i use it a btl/ltb as its hard to say currently which way this will go or how the race itself will be run although the Fav does like to come from the rear ( OOeerrr ) which makes me think that a LTB is a good bet with an additional low priced lay in for a bonus , when this won its only race two races ago it hit 29.0 in running and when it come 2nd lto it hit 1.29 in running and if same tactics are applied then the ltb is the bet to play and will be my choice however if there is a change of tactics then i will probably dump it inside the first furlong.

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RACE 3 : ROGUE WAVE @ 2.62 - ( LAY ) ( No Bet ) - 2nd
Small field maiden with two with experience and two newcomers from the good Doctor and this looks tight as thoses with experience look fairly good although one has improved whilst the other disappointed lto and both will be tough nuts to crack but either of the Marwan runners could prove good enough with both being well bred with the 2nd string looking to be the more speedily bred.
The fact that this is 2.62 should have alarm bells ringing on its own as i have this as a 1.8 shot so the market confidence must be low or the bookies are trying to push it out to get more revenue on the others , where we have such a disparity in tissue/actual price then i tend to leave alone or just have a small punt on the jolly but quite often in these small fields you end up getting the roughie winning and that is probably the best long term plan, as this is a PPL race i shall have no other interest.
**PPL Winner
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RACE 4 : VENUE @ 2.32 - LAY - 1ST @ 2.24 ( Hit 4.0 in the run )
Another small field but a Hcap this time over 1m3f and this is wide open and i feel the Fav is worth taking on at this price as any of the remainder are good enough to get their head in front.

And now out of time lol...enjoy your day.....

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