Been a tough ol week as the ground has changed and the form book has basically been thrown out the window and we start from scratch for the final 2 months of the Flat season proper.
I did state a couple of weeks ago to watch out for the Dubawi runners in the Autumn and they have been magnificent in rattling a heap of winners and some at big odds making this still a very profitable sire to follow and yesterday's Nap was Mick de Kocks Dubawi newcomer which rattled in looking as good as the $450,000 price tag and now heads to Meydan for the Spring Festival in March.
We are now in Day 2 of the big Ayr Autumn festival which will be highlighted for the final day tmrw when we have the big race the Ayr Gold Cup but for today i think we can nip over to nursery track Newbury and we can have a card that will once again examine the days Favs and possibly highlight any bets thru the card.
NEWBURY
RACE 1 : BET EW - 2nd @ 5.65
HESBAAN @ 3.95 is an obvious choice as Fav in this maiden after running green fto but showing up well and putting in a run full of promise although it was on the poly and i always feel a bit concerned about following runners from the AW to turf as quite often the form isnt translated and this is another that cant be gteed to improve or run the same and in these softer conditions i think its a risk taking a skinny price about anything unproven however @ the current 4.0 i think this is a cracking EW bet to nothing and is worth having as a single or in a nice EW double for some easy turnover.
RACE 2 : BET EW - 1st @ 3.35
CAPE WRATH @ 3.80 , This is one of two Lady Rothschild runners ( i like the 2nd fav the Dubawi runner ) and is fairly priced given the race make up and all Hannon/Hughes runners warrant the upmost respect and there are always worth a punt if your struggling to find anything outstanding against it.
There are a few likely sorts here but nothing outstanding and it doesnt appear to be a maiden of particular strength therefor i couldnt possibly Lay it and i would be more inclined to have it in a EW double with the above mentioned Hesbaan.
RACE 3 : DUTCH BET - 2nd @ 5.0 ( all three were traded IR as they all hit 1.60 , 1.60 & 1.41 )
GOODWOOD MIRAGE @ 4.70 , Couldnt possibly Lay this as i can only make a case for three in this race and this is one of them ( with Sir Bedivere and Continuum ) and is priced correctly and this is another solid Placer or Fap.
RACE 4 : WIN BET - 2nd @ 2.35 ( but hit 1.20 IR for a good profit )
FRENCH NAVY @ 2.32 , This is my NAP for this card as this has won on Soft before , will like the trip and Won lto and looks to be returning to the form that won him the Select stakes in 2011 , this looks an outstanding bet for today.
RACE 5 : PPL Race - 2nd @ 2.34 ( Hit 1.38 IR )
RED GALILEO @ 2.66 , Another Dubawi progeny that it would appear folly to LAY so im not and i wont be backing it either as this is a PPL race and that is what i shall be doing, although if i was using this race as a punting medium then i would be dutching this with the Hannon trained Pupil.
RACE 6 : MAX LTB - 1st @ 2.40 ( hit 4.0 IR )
LADY LARA @ 3.30 , This is an outstanding STAT LAY and this should be laid or Traded ( my choice ) with most of the field open to vast amounts of improvement and coming into this most have some form in the book that gives them every chance as the 96 rating this has attained is i feel rather high as i only rate it around 78.
RACE 7 : WIN BET - 1st @ 2.88
TAWHID @ 2.96 , This is easily the class act here and imo comes here with easily the best recent form on offer after being very narrowly beaten in a variety of races by the likes of Montiridge , Gale Force Ten , Gregorian and lastly Top Notch Tonto and in this field where most have disappointed this must have every chance of getting off the mark for the season.
RACE 8 :STAT LAY ( LTB ) - Unplaced ( = Win )
FLOW @ 4.80 is a very big Stat Lay and will be treated as such in a very tricky finale.
And thats pretty much it for today other than my " Stop at a Winner" bets on Dubawi's Progeny ;)...Some very bookie friendly races about today and Trading looks to be the play and another big dose of super luck similar to yesterday will be very much welcomed ( Placed a Win double to trade and forget that i had done it as i had already done another and laid it off n then checking my bets to see both had won ;) )...TTFN..hopefully back tmrw to do a card for AYR..if time allows...good luck with your punting.
Lovely eyes imo ;)
Awesome ... Not bad tipping either Clint!! ;-)
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