Saturday, 28 September 2013

What a Satdee....

                                             

Morning Folks.....
Yes it would appear i have shit the bed being up at this crazy hour yet that is not the case.
The reason for me being up so early is todays racing needs a lot of looking at on what appears to be a blockbusting day.
Having looked at all the cards today i do feel that the obvious place to visit is Newmarket which has what looks on paper at least a superb card even if one or two races are smaller than one would expect.

So lets take a gander through the Newmarket Card...

RACE 1 : BERKSHIRE (NAP ) - 1st @ 2.56


Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2)

..This is a small ( rather disappointingly ) field and a fairly tight one although the obvious place to start is with BERKSHIRE , Firstly i will state from the off that i believe this will have no problemo with the extra 1f...Now onto its form and well being , well form wise it looks an absolute fucking shoo in...Won the Chesham lto over 7f and when i say won what i meant was demolished a decent field...cantering up to join the leaders on the right hand side of the center racing pack and was on the bit at the 5f pole and within a few strides had lengthened to sweep into the lead and then from the 6 pole he simply carried on lengthening and run away with this and he showed no signs of stopping at all and in behind some 8L was Somewhat and it will be somewhat of a shock if he can get to within 4L this time and Somewhat had beaten the progressive Wahaar a few Lengths in the Superlative Stakes giving that an awful lot to do, Sir Jack Layden was another behind in the Chesham and this was further back..fully 10L and i find it inconceivable that this can turn the form around even over this longer trip.
The relative unknown here is Kingfisher and although he was beaten out of sight by almost 10L lto ( 3rd of 4  ) that was behind the rather excellent duo Free Eagle and Australia , i have these down provisionally at 104 and 115 putting Australia in the top 5 we have seen this year so on that basis i would rate Kingfisher around 95 ( not the 102 it officially has ) as it had won its maiden by 9L but beat little of distinction so i think Berkshire not only has a good few pound in hand it also holds a few on previous form and one on lateral form and i can see no way this loses today, this is a classy sort and this son of Mount Nelson should give P F I Cole a welcome return to the big time.

RESULT :

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (3)Berkshire (IRE)P F I Cole28-12Jim Crowley11/8j
Held up beind leading trio, took keen hold, headway over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, soon edged left, ran on to lead narrowly inside final furlong, held on well opened 5/4 touched 6/4 £600-£400 £1100-£800 £550-£400 £2500-£2000 £1250-£1000 £1000-£800 £500-£400
2nd (4)nkSomewhat (USA)M Johnston28-12G Mosse11/8j
Led, ridden and edged left 2f out, headed narrowly inside final furlong, ran on, just held opened 6/4 £1200-£800
3rd (1)nkSir Jack LaydenD H Brown28-12R Hughes40/1
Broke well, held up, outpaced over 3f out, switched right and headway 2f out, stayed on to take 3rd inside final furlong, unable to challenge opened 33/1 touched 50/1
4th (2)½Washaar (IRE)R Hannon28-12P Hanagan9/1
With leader, ridden 2f out, edged left over 1f out, unable to quicken inside final furlong, no extra close home opened 10/1
5th (5)Kingfisher (IRE)A P O'Brien28-12R L Moore7/1
Tracked leaders, pushed along over 3f out, outpaced and no impression from over 1f out opened 10/1
__________________________________________

RACE 2 : VORDA  ( Although a FAP DUTCH on Joyeuse & Princess Noor looks tempting ) - 1st @ 2.48

Connolly's Red Mills Cheveley Park Stakes (Fillies' Group 1)

..Another smallish field for a classy event and this is just as tight with most of these in form, improving or proven and i can see this being a very tight race.
Obviously i would like to see the mighty Frankel's Sister win here and carry on the great name i am not sure she is quite upto it just yet, she won her maiden in an unimpressive time beating trees and then ran 3rd in the Albany behind Sandiva and todays chief rival Kiyoshi  running to the same time figure and rating as her maiden win showing no real signs of improvement or temperament and she was doing all her best work towards the end of the race making the impression that she would be better suited to an extra furlong or two.
She then ran and Won the Dick Poole Fillies Stakes at Salisbury but again ran to the same previous level and recorded the same time rating as her previous 2 races again showing no real signs of obvious improvement now this is a concern as she WILL have to improve to win this but has yet to do so at all in runs 2 and 3...is this her limit or is she a late developer / lazy sort?..Given the fact she has the easy beating of two of the runners here ( Dorothy B and Alutiq ) and the narrow top level opposition i would say that if she does improve by around 10lb she wins , improves by 6 and shes in the shake up ...doesnt and she will be lucky to place.
Kiyoshi will be many a punters choice but has a awkward form read , has won ( Albany ) but in a very average time and its maiden time was better but then upped to 7f ( trainer must have felt this move was warranted ) and just weakened towards the end running a good 2nd ( disq placed 3rd ) and will surely be in the firing line.
The Irish challenger Come to Heel looks an out n out speed ball winning fto in a very good time ( Group Class over 5f ) and then ran well in a ok time but the ground was on the sticky side and i think looking at the race the form of that can be upgraded and this will make the race a good test of speed and this could possibly try and burn off from the front.
Princess Noor is very interesting , registering a ordinary win in her opening maiden before being comfortably beaten by Kiyoshi at Ascot however this then had a good run in the Cherry Hinton and although beaten around 4L and running 5th this was won by Lucky Kristale in a very quick time and this was an improved run and this was backed by a run of further improvement to win the Princess Margaret Stakes in a time just marginally quicker than her 5th previously so she does look like an improving sort and a run to her current level will put her in the shake up and another step forward could give her a very live chance of winning.

Red Lady doesnt look anywhere near good enough however the rather exciting VORDA does. This beauty ran a corker lto behind the amazing and almost impossibly quick No Nay Never lto and although her unbeaten record was lost she lost no caste in losing it to that there may be a query raised or even two over the fact she is being upped in trip but im absolutely prepared to take this on trust..now this is something i dont usually do as i will normally always take proven form over possible form however to win this race based on previous running's i feel a run to around 1m11s will be required and none of this field have got anywhere near that level which means they all have to improve or its a sub quality event now i do think that a couple of these can improve and if we are backing improvers then why not take Vorda as this doesnt have to improve all it needs to do is stay ..and it wins..although the current 3.05 is a wee bit short want at least 3.6 tbh...

RESULT :

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (5)Vorda (FR)P Sogorb28-12O Peslier11/8f
Tracked leaders, raced keenly, ridden to chase leader 1f out, led inside final furlong, ran on well, readily opened 7/4 £7000-£4000 £1750-£1000(x2) £1400-£800(x2) £3250-£2000 £600-£400
2nd (8)¾Princess Noor (IRE)R Varian28-12 bJ P Murtagh11/1
Raced alone towards stands side of centre, prominent, led over 3f out, ridden over 1f out, edged left and headed inside final furlong, not pace of winner opened 10/1
3rd (4)KiyoshiC Hills28-12J P Spencer9/4
Broke last, held up, closed over 3f out, ridden over 1f out, unable to quicken inside final furlong, stayed on same pace opened 5/2 £5000-£2000(x2)
4th (7)nkCome To Heel (IRE)D Wachman28-12W M Lordan9/1
Tracked leaders, took keen hold, ridden and unable to quicken over 1f out, stayed on final 100 yards opened 8/1 £2250-£300
__________________________________________

RACE 3 : SKY LANTERN / ELUSIVE KATE ( DUTCH ) - Sky Lantern 1st @ 2.90
                                                       

Kingdom Of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes (Fillies' Group 1)

..And once again we have a small field for a good prize of over £100,000 and this is a select field and is almost as tough to call as the Cambridgeshire later on with so many having kriss crossing form lines, proven form, chances and questions to answer.
SKY LANTERN is a key cog to the whole event as this has comfortably beaten Just the Judge several times already this season and on a very strict line i see no way it reverses the form and this ran an absolute shocker lto but is capable of making its presence felt if right back to its best.
Sky Lantern has had a fairly tough season in fairness, Trumpeted by me all pre season and i smashed it fto and lost a fortune as it ran 2nd to the inspired and continually disappointing Hot Snap so i left it alone for the 1000 Guineas and watched in Horror as it hosed up @ 9/1...gutted.com..i was almost in tears...anyway i got back in the camp after agreeing with myself that my original thoughts on this were in fact correct and set out to try and retrieve my Losses by smashing it nto in the Coronation Stakes and it duly obliged at 9/2 although looking at this retrospectively this was a weak race and the form is questionable at best but it then went onto in the Falmouth and i left it alone here as i had reservations regarding Elusive Kate and these were confirmed as although it got carried right across the track Sky Lantern was beaten into 2nd a shade to easy for my liking making me think its either regressed or has had enough as it just didnt shine like it had done but  then it come out for the Nassau Stakes which was won by Winsili however i think even Hughsey will admit this was not his finest hour in race riding, just off center mid halfway brought out alongside Winsili and behind Hot Snap with 3 to go then moved rather oddly back inside and then when they all made a push for the line he decided to try and thread a gap that just wasnt there and inside the final 1f he had to sharply pull his mount up as the gap closed and then run on again...this race was hers for the taking and its my opinion that with a clear run she would have won cosily but can she reverse that form and run with Elusive Kate??....Honestly...i just dont know...this will be the acid test , EK has argubaly the better form , age and experience on her side and is ultra consistent but if she plays around and starts hanging like she does it will cost her the race for sure but it will be a close run thing and i dont see the others getting involved for the win with Duntle, Chigun and Just the Judge fighting for minors.

RESULT :

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (2)Sky Lantern (IRE)R Hannon38-13R Hughes7/4f
Held up in last, closed from 3f out, shaken up over 1f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on well, readily opened 15/8 £2000-£1000 £1200-£600 £1000-£500(x2) £8750-£5000 £7000-£4000 £2100-£1200 £875-£500 £700-£400 £3750-£2000(x2) £1500-£800(x2) £750-£400
2nd (1)1IntegralSir Michael Stoute38-13R L Moore8/1
Held up in 6th, switched right and headway over 2f out, ridden to lead over 1f out, headed and not pace of winner inside final furlong opened 13/2
3rd (4)2Duntle (IRE)D Wachman49-3W M Lordan8/1
Held up in touch in 5th, headway going well 3f out, ridden over 1f out, not quicken inside final furlong, stayed on same pace opened 10/1
4th (5)Elusive Kate (USA)J H M Gosden49-3William Buick11/4
Led early, prominent, led again over 2f out, ridden, hung left and headed over 1f out, no extra final 100 yards £1500-£500(x2)
__________________________________________

RACE 4 : KING GEORGES RIVER  ( EW ) - Unplaced - 

Betfred Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap)1m 1f

  • (3yo+, 1m 1f, Class 2, 32 runners)
...

                                                    
Now its time for the " BIG ONE " and big it is with a mind blowing 32 runners lined up in this annual cavalry charge where more luck in running is needed than anything else and more often than not the best horse doesnt win.
I like the EW chances of KING GEORGES RIVER , Shuky likes Nine Realms and the " Luck Box " will probably back Sam Sharp...but the likes of Forgive, Ascription and Graphic could all easily get involved ...
Tricky race and heres the SL review..
Impossible barely does justice to the latest renewal of this historic handicap and the last two winners, Prince Of Johanne and Bronze Angel, will do well to feature again. William Haggas is responsible for six of the 35 declared runners with Queensberry Rules catching the eye reunited with Ryan Moore, who rode him to victories at Kempton and Sandown earlier in the season. Frankie Dettori teams up with the penalised Graphic, who beat Ascription at Haydock on his penultimate start. Hugo Palmer's four-year-old is 4lb better off here, however, and there shouldn't be much to choose the pair now. Danchai, another Haggas representative, may improve for blinkers while Forgive caught a tartar in Lanansaak at Ascot and shouldn't be ignored. Tha'ir was beaten less than a length at Doncaster earlier this month and Top Notch Tonto also has to go on the short-list after his surprise victory in a Group 3 at Haydock. He has a penalty to contend with in this but should easily confirm that form with Nine Realms. CODE OF HONOR finished just behind Red Avenger at Goodwood two runs ago but is a couple of pounds better off here and has the beating of Tha'ir and King George River on that run. Just beaten on a return visit to Goodwood, he shapes as though this slight drop in distance will suit and should give supporters a run for their money at decent odds. Strictly Silver could reward each-way support and looks best of the rest..( Fun stakes only ).

RESULT :

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (4)EducateI Mohammed49-9J P Murtagh8/1f
Held up towards rear far side, headway over 3f out, led group 2f out, hung left over 1f out, led overall inside final furlong, just held on opened 9/1 £3000-£330(x5) £2000-£220(x2)
2nd (28)s.h28 Code Of HonorH Candy38-13D Sweeney12/1
Hampered start, held up in rear stands side, switched right and headway well over 1f out, edged left inside final furlong, ran on well, just failed opened 16/1 £3000-£330
3rd (3)234 Tres Coronas (IRE)T D Barron68-12M Barzalona25/1
Held up in rear far side, headway over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on inside final furlong opened 28/1
4th (20)nse30 Graphic (IRE)W J Haggas48-13 pL Dettori16/1
Led stands side, overall leader over 2f out, headed inside final furlong, unable to quicken, stayed on
__________________________________________

And that my round up of the biggest four races at the Heath today and with a plethora of good looking races across the country today will be a very interesting and hopefully rewarding day..Good Luck All.

                                                    

She can come n do my Laundry any time ;-)

Translate

Copy Halt