Saturday Already...!!

Well this is a post born of the midnight oil..,
                                                                 I am obviously awake with a mind a racing and thinking of the racing and what we almost had again on Boxing Day...the Jackpot!!...again i hit 5 winners from the 6 races with a hot fav the faller....tut tut...one day...one day...and this Saturday we have another racing extravaganza and with many an option it seems folly to start looking thru everything so i will instead go right back to Kempton in the hope of more riches although the card at Chepstow looks very good and could well end up being the Jackpot card with the obvious highlight being the Welsh National a race in which i will be donating via Handy Andy and Gas Line Boy.

Over at Kempton we have a fairly decent looking day and we will give it a good go...so lets start...

KEMPTON

RACE 1 :

WIN - BIVOUAC - 1st @ 3.50
EW - STORM FORCE TEN -
LONG - N/A -

RESULT / NOTES : 

Full Result

Pos	Dist	Horse	Trainer	Age	Weight	Jockey	SP
1st		1 Bivouac (FR)	N J Henderson	3	11-8	B J Geraghty	9/4f
Held up in mid-division, headway on outside tracking leaders when hampered 4 out, chased clear leader on long run to 2 out, closed soon after last, ridden to lead final 125 yards, stayed on well opened 11/4
2nd	½	7 San Benedeto (FR)	P F Nicholls	3	10-12 t1	Nick Scholfield	3/1
Raced keenly, tracked leader, led after 2nd, clear 4th, went left 3 out and next, 3 lengths ahead last, headed final 125 yards, kept on opened 9/4 touched 10/3
3rd	12	10 Swivel	J P Ferguson	3	10-12	N D Fehily	5/1
Tracked leading pair, tracked clear leader after 2nd until went left 3 out, soon outpaced, rallied into 3rd before 2 out, one pace, no chance with leading duo opened 7/1
4th	3¼	9 Storm Force Ten	A M Balding	3	10-12	Mr S Waley-Cohen (3)	11/4
Took keen hold tracking leaders, went left and chased clear leader 3 out until well before next, chased leading pair until before 2 out, mistake and outpaced 2 out, went modest 4th before last, hung left run-in opened 10/3

SUMMARY: We start the day with a strong looking Juvenile Hurdle a race type that i like and we have a couple of hot pots in this so it should make for a decent event with fair prices abound.
SAN BENEDETO is a current joint fav and comes here unexposed having just the one run but that was in a soft ground 6f race in France so that form is really of no consequence here however this big son of Layman must be thought quite capable for Nicholls to enter him into a race in which he has dominated of late ( Won this race for he last 3 years with Favs including Irish Saint ) but i have no report on this from IDK ( my man in France ) so will have to assume many things but on the cold hard facts available i will have to take this on.
BIVOUAC is the other Joint Fav and comes into this with much stronger form having shown winning form over hurdles and over this trip including his most recent outing but is that form that good ? , having examined the form i do think it holds up quite well , more so when the form lines involving the very promising Golden Doyen are bought into play and this for me on current form and ability is the one to beat.
Storm Force Ten who was beaten lto by Bivouac looks a rather skinny price at 4.7 as he was flat out n empty come the end , he may improve and should improve but can he improve enough?...i dont think so and i think a bigger danger may come in the shape of SWIVEL a former high 90's rated stayer for Mark Johnston and not without a touch of class this could easily get involved if in the mood for a bit of mud.
I think its an almost impossible ask to expect the winner to not come from this quartet so it then just boils down to preference and taste , Bivouac has the form and ability , San Benedeto is expected to have it all , Storm Force Ten looks promising and Swivel has the class but has yet to taste the trip or the NH experience...all have questions to answer in their own way but ultimately as i have alluded to before i will nearly always side with experience over promise , proven ability over what may be...and for me that means BIVOUAC to Win.
                                   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 2 :

WIN - VIBRATO VALTAT - 1st @ 4.0
EW - THREE KINGDOMS - 2nd @ 6.82 ( Hit 1.14 )
LONG - GODS OWN -

RESULT / NOTES : 

SUMMARY: Next up is the " Wayward Lad " Chase over 2m and its a tight field but a damn good looking one and this should be another well contested attritional race.
We open up with MELODIC RENDEZVOUS ( nr ) a horse with undoubted ability and one that last season was expected to go onto much bigger n brighter things but his career has some what stalled of late having shown a few quirky tendencies and although he keeps putting in decent enough performances he isnt setting the world alight and he struggled on hid Chasing bow to beat some very very average types in a poor race and cant be backed until showing a great deal more.
VIBRATO VALTAT is another quirky type , packed choc full with racing tekkers this lovely son of Voix Du Nord travels supremely well but often finds little in a battle and can hang, run awkwardly at the end of his races and he plays silly buggers against these he will lose..thats a given , however if he has his " A " game head on then he has it in him to rip all these a new arsehole...but you just have no idea what mood he is gonna be in none the less the 4.0 is quite bloody inviting i must say.....
Gods Own is another very nice type and this will win more races than most and his last run can be redacted from the annals of history as it was simply a no show...so he becomes a bit quirky himself and will win this and races like this if he is on song but once again your betting to see what mood he is in...GRANDOUET is probably the class in the race but this is a seasonal bow and a very tough one but if fully wound up could easily take it down and the 5.50 is also quite tempting however its THREE KINGDOMS that looks the winner to me today as this is the horse with the proven ability , current form , liking for conditions and really ticks all the boxes including consistency and honesty couple this with the fact he is 10/1 and it becomes a no brainer bet ( Im dutching with VV ).
                                   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 3 :

WIN - CLARET CLOAK - Non Runner -
EW - HINTERLAND -
LONG - BALDER SUCESS - 2nd @ 2.18 ( 2 lines )

RESULT / NOTES : 

SUMMARY: Another small field race up next and this its the Desert Orchid Chase over 2m with virtually nothing splitting the field this is a minefield.
Module can win but has promised more than he has delivered recently , Special Tiara seems woefully out of form , Third Intention often flat lines at the buckle end so this looks a three runner race between HINTERLAND , CLARET CLOAK & BALDER SUCCESS with slight preference for Claret Cloak as Hinterland has attitude problems and Balder Success  having to show he is as good now as we once thought plus Claret Cloak is 6.2 against the latter who is on 3.1 and Claret Cloaks last run has shown him to be right back on song a tricky race to call and one where attitude and resilience will win the day.
                                   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 4 :

WIN - TALES OF MILAN -
EW - SILVER COMMANDER -
LONG - BALLINVARRIG - 1st @ 4.62

RESULT / NOTES :

SUMMARY: After a nice kip we come back to scouring the pages of form and we start this late morning run thru with a tough little 3m Hcap Chase that does have a large disparity with the weights with almost a stone n a half tipping top n bottom so Cantlow looks out of it being so badly out of form and giving lumps of weight away and Wings of Smoke comes from the spring/summer yard of Vaughan who is also rather cold currently. My Three against the field will be TALES OF MILAN who has been running consistently and winning well although for a front runner this will offer a different test today and Kempton is more of a speed track rather than stamina then we have BALLINVARRIG who runs consistently but wins little however he has been dropped 2lb from its last run and with some luck in running can make the frame or better if all drops nicely and if this does run a decent race that will give the form with Gas Line Boy a nice boost for his run in the Welsh National and finally we will have SILVER COMMANDER another perpetual bridesmaid it would appear but this is well due a nice win and is rarely beaten by that far so in a race full of if's n but's we have a couple of consistent types and a rapid winning improver against a field of badly treated dodgepots..and with the three all at around 6.0+ this makes for a decent enough dutch.
                                   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 5 :

WIN - MAYFAIR MUSIC - NON RUNNER -
EW - MOLLYS A DIVA - 3RD @ 9.13 ( Out of PP due to Non Runners )
LONG - LADY KATHLEEN - Fell

RESULT / NOTES :

SUMMARY: Next on the card is a trappy little Mares Hurdle and with almost two stone top n tailing the weights this could be won by anyone...However i feel it would be prudent to take a closer look at the form of MAYFAIR MUSIC from Hendo , first run it scoots up in a run o the mill NHF race never extended and is then put into the NHF ( Mares ) listed event at Cheltenham and running with merit in 5th ( beaten only 9L ) behind impressive winner the Govaness and the horse in third has since won 3 of her 4 next races whilst the 4th has run 2nd 3 times and the 2nd has won so that form looks solid , then she beat a Nicolls runner who had been behind her against the Govaness ( solidifying that form ) and Fairytale Theatre then went onto win its next 2 races before running in C1 events ( with some merit although well beaten but then dropped to Grade 3 and come 2nd) it then ran in a Listed 3m event on good ground at Donny and won on the bridle and the horse she beat had just run 2nd in a C1 event herself and was rated 130...so that form again looks rock solid then in Nov this year she ran in a Listed event with just 6 runners ( was the stable 2nd string ) and was beaten a long way out behind L'Unique and Caroles Legacy ( quite a decent pair ) and that was on soft ground so was it the ground ? , the opposition ? or just a poor run ?...Well my view is that it was a run that was required and the previous consistency shown has her in good light  and she is every bit worth her rating of 139 and still lightly raced you can hope for more improvement , can she give the weight away?...it will be a close run thing imo but at around 5.6- 6.0 she is well worth a decent punt.
                                   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 6 :

WIN - CHATEZ -
EW - CHESTERFIELD -
LONG - WAR SINGER -

RESULT / NOTES : All unplaced ;(...CHESTERFIELD WOULD have Won had he not fallen at the last and CHATEZ..well no excuses...did nothing..sorry.

SUMMARY: The finale brings us a tricky Hcap Hurdle but this is also a race that holds my NAP for today in the shape of CHATEZ a really likable sort on the flat that notched a rack victories at around 1m and the Alan King charge has not really had to work for either of its opening NH Wins thus far winning most comfortably and the 98 rated flat boy who is getting almost 2 stone from the toppers can outclass and outspeed these , fluent in his jumping and quick between the sticks the ground holds no fears and im not convinced the likes of Starluck and Chesterfield can give so much weight away.
                                   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

My quick Picks for the Jackpot at CHEPSTOW >

1. 1 / 11 / 13 - 1st n 3rd ( 2 lines on PP 1 x JP )

2.1 / 6 / 9 - 2nd n 3rd ( 4 Lines on PP out of JP )

3. 4 / 6 / 9 -  ( 6 ) 2nd ( 4 Lines )

4. 5 / 6 ( NAP ) - 2nd ( 4 Lines )

5. 2 / 13 / 14 / 20 - 3rd ( Glenquest ( HCE NAP @ 61.0 ) ( 4 Lines )

6. 2  /7  /9 - 3rd 

648 lines @ £1 = £648 Spent...4 Lines returned @ £546.30 = £2200 and a £1350 Profit = BoooM

Good Luck.
                      ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Early Look at Kempton on Boxing Day...

Afternoon Folks ,
             
Yes tiz the season to be jolly but can we fill our pockets with Lolly or will the quest prove to be just Folly?..

Kempton has long been the Nos 1 Christmas Venue on a day which sees a ton of racing around the UK and beyond and this year is no different as we look forward to what appears to be a cracking card and i will now take an early peek thru as im not sure how i will be fixed for time come the big day....and it will keep me awake as im suffering after a massive 12 hour session round York Yesterday....;-)()()()

So we start the day off with a nice looking small field Novice Hurdle with some very promising types a debutante and some solid looking winning form and the curious selection of Barry G to ride decent flat recruit Zip Top instead of his Gaffers Bringhomeminty and one would have to presume that the reports have been very generous as the three proper types it has to beat look very smart indeed.
Arzal made all over CD to beat the very very highly rated West Wizard lto and will surely be making this a proper test and if given enough rope its possible he could have them strung out and legless.....        

Sempre Medici is here from the mighty Mullins yard and has to be respected but has a lot of improving to do and will have to have come on significantly from ts opening run to get really competitive thats not to say it cant or wont but it will need to be a 140+ runner to not only win here but to also cement his position in the Cheltenham market...not without a chance but has the most to prove from the winning trio.

JOLLYALLAN looks the likeliest winner as this has proven form which isnt far off Cheltenham class already having won real easy fto and then simply hosed up never off the bridle lto winning by 5L and that was heavily eased down and will be the call for me here plus its price will be juicier than i expect.

The real fly in the ointment or the Dark horse is Zip Top....i just dont know what to make of this and BG's choice of ride....could this really be THAT good ??....i might have to sneak a few squids on it as cover.
*And another thing Hendo has won this race twice in the last 3 years with hot favs in River Maigue and Tetlami and i know for a fact he has much bigger guns than this in the yard including a few yet to run but he still relies on this...makes no sense as the yard reports have this as " not that special , decent engine but will struggle at the top "....i dont know what his ideas are....maybe he is seeing something we are not??....

WIN - JOLLYALLAN - 1st @ 2.26
EW - ARZAL -

RESULT :

                               ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Next up is a decent looking Hcap Chase with a mixture of sorts but still some reliable types none the less and this is a tricky one as you would expect in these race conditions.
Course Winner River Maigue got turned over at 4/9 on his chasing bow here and must be avoided until he can prove his worth , nice horse but has answers to question.
Katgary is unexposed and tackles fences for the first time whilst also being upped in trip and although this son of Ballingarry has a touch of class it is asking quite a bit fto to win in this grade against some battle hardened types and is another to just get pushed onto the watch list...could surprise and win just not for me..no today at least.
Stellar Notion that comes here with bags of potential having shown up very well over a few races at 2m and i dont think the step up will pose any problems whilst i do like the look of THEATREBAR ( NR ) & GENEROUS RANSOM both of these have shown to be resilient , consistent types who can jump well , like the ground and are distance winners and both tick all the boxes in a race where so many questions need to seek answers, i would suggest a Fap Dutch as the probet however a couple of EW's will also be a decent bet at the odds.

WIN - THEATRBAR - NON RUNNER - Replaced with STELLA NOTION - 1st @ 5.20
EW - GENEROUS RANSOM  - 3rd @ 9.40
LONG - KATGARY -

RESULT :

                               ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
3rd Race on the Xmas card is an excellent looking Feltham Novice Chase with just 7 runners but a quality packed line up however this is all about SAPHIR DU RHEU and how good can this be. Tipped up fto on his chasing bow but hacked up when foot perfect lto and this could be a real top tier chaser i mean REALLY special but its still early days but that wont sway me as i am going to stick by it as its a very exciting type and this " if " foot perfect will be too good for these and i think the 2.22 is a damn good price in truth as i was thinking 1.90 - 2.0 so im getting a bit of xmas cheer with that with the only real challenge imo to come from the stable companion Virak who is a very promising type and could come good if SDR falls or fails.

WIN - SAPHIR DU RHEU  - ( NAP ) - Fell
EW - VIRAK - Unplaced

RESULT :

                               ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The 4th Race today is an excellent looking Xmas Hurdle that has very much a Cheltenham feel about it with some very good horses lining up against the likely winner and obvious Fav FAUGHEEN. This is as yet unbeaten after 7 races with victories at Acsot and Cheltenham ( Baring Bingham ) and has never been really tested has such been the superiority delivered but this will be a test make no mistake as Purple Bay has returned better than ever and may finally start to deliver on the potential, Irving has a touch of class and Sign of a Victory is a solid yardstick and is a very very smart type in his own right and Faugheen will have to show all his class and Cheltenham credentials in order to win and for the 1.45 is just too short a price to be involved as i think 2.0 would be fairer in such a quality field so this will be a no bet for me in fact i think the bet i will have is a PLACE LAY on IRVING as i am just not convinced of its quality against the best and it may flatter then weaken once its chance has gone as im expecting Purple Bay to make this a searching test from the front.

WIN - FAUGHEEN - 1st @ 1.41 ( Hosed up..very very exciting horse )
EW - SIGN OF VICTORY -

RESULT :

                               ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The 5th race and its a Xmas Cracker,,,its the

William Hill King George VI Chase (Grade 1)

..and this looks a superb renewal although SILVINIACO CONTI looks a standing dish in this having reversed form from its season bow and looks in tip top form to win this race for the 2nd time having won it last year as he holds many on form both literally and laterally and really is the one they all have to beat and at 3.60 is a pretty decent price in truth and should certainly be backed or dutched ( like me ).
Dynaste looks next best at around 10/1 and is well worth involving in your bet selections as this comes here with every chance although in truth is a horse that has slightly disappointed on more than one occasion and really should have gone to the very top but is subject to what can only be described as bouts of moodiness...but if he turns up fully focused then he is a real force but you have to accept that with his genius comes madness.
Champagne Fever is the " up n comer " and has to prove he is the real deal in this grade whilst Cue Card will make them all go from the front and Al Ferof will no doubt spend most of the race looking like Arkle before again pulling your pants down , Johns Spirit is a very smart Handicapper but is out of his depth here and im rather perplexed as to why they are running it here because if he was to pull out a massive run and get near to winning he will surely be subject to a weight raise for future Handicaps ??...and the remainder would appear to have it all to do as they look well held on all known form.

WIN - SILVIANCO CONTI - ( NB ) - 1st @ 2.97
EW - DYNASTE - 2nd @ 9.20

RESULT :

                               ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The Xmas Finale !!...and its a tight looking Hcap Hurdle and not one to get you out of trouble if you have spent up lol...Daveron's victory at Taunton has been franked but Nick Schofield appears to have chosen stablemate Kilmurvy, who was a lucky winner at Bangor, though the latter is actually a couple of pounds lower. Foxtail Hill is very lightly-raced while the four-year-old Theinval won over 2m here before failing to justify favouritism at Sandown. GO WEST YOUNG MAN's second at Stratford in October has turned out to be a decent effort and he's fancied to go well despite a 7lb higher mark as Hawaii Five Nil is best watched with his stable still struggling for winners. Aalim has his stamina to prove but this trip should suit Alternatif. David Pipe's French import makes his UK debut and has his first start since June, however, and could have been better handicapped.

WIN - THEINVAL- 2nd @ 5.50
EW - GO WEST YOUNG MAN -
LONG - ALTERNATIF - 1st @ 3.96

RESULT :

                               ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Happy Xmas one n All...have a great day and Good Luck on the Day for Boxing.

Happy Xmas

Thats me done now till Boxing Day so i will bid thee all fair well till then , have a Great Xmas and super new year and let the Winners flow..;-)...Love to All x

        

Its Friday but here is Saturday...

Evening All ,
                 Well what a day today was full of highs and well more highs with only a little blip in Josses Hill ( whom i blame BG for as his tactical riding skills were not obvious in this ) , but overall through the day we did very well with a winning NAP and many other winning trades and bets across all cards.
The NAP was a particular highlight as it won with any amount in hand and that gives my Ante post ticket bet on Peace n Co and nice boost as this has been getting stuffed by that at home..;-0)

Can we scoop the Jackpot on Saturday ??...will my three tips for Haydock in ??...will i ever get a winner in the HCE Tipping comp ??....For those of you not yet in this cracking monthly FREE and pay Comp...get the fuck involved ya miserable bastards!! ;-)

If anyone from Premiumukracingtips would like to join our members Facebook banter n tips page for more regular updates and selections then you will have to add me or Jason Coote as a friend on Facebook and then send a request to join...only a couple of very basic rules to adhere to and the door to profitsville will be opened ;-).

Lets take a peek at ASCOT then ....

RACE 1 :
The starts encouragingly as we have a nice 3m Hcap Hurdle with 12 runners and its a tight one as most come into this with a bit of form and some sort of chance and in truth for the Potters its a tough start and a few tickets will be rustling in the wind after this....
With the right weight for ratings in play they should in theory all be coming over the last in a heap..but over 3m in Softish ground this could see a few come home rather leg weary and i will envisage a mishap or two en route to the line , Flintham looks a nice spare for Nico a jockey i like very much and this could be good for a few lbs extra however the current price of 8.20 is a bit on the thin side for me for a horse with a bit to prove and in a race like this i think you will be better off going in with proven over to prove...proven form over potential in a race like this will almost always bring you the winner.
Barton Heather will enjoy the trip but not the ground if it gets much softer so this will have to be monitored but even with ground on the better side of soft i cant see me getting involved at around 9/1. Rascal absolutely hosed up lto and the Skeltons have their string in fine fettle and this must surely run a big race but again the 5.2 is tight considering its been raised 10lbs for that so will have to produce another career best to get in the mix and that is a seriously tough ask Spookydooky is from JJ O'Neil and is bypassed on the basis his horses are running worse than shit right now , Wizards Bridge is of great interest hailing from the hot Tizzard yard and is a horse full of promise but is another that not only fails the proven test but is too short for me to get involved so is overlooked as a punt , The TOURARD MAN however is on the shortlist as its a proven distance & ground performer that also has bags of potential and has been imo let in lightly as i have this rated at 122 with a further area of improvement hike likely to see this get into the low 30's at the minimum and i feel this could end up being a great deal better than most if not all of these ..bordering on Listed or even graded class and i think the 4.6 is a good price even given the context of this race as i had it down at 3.4 - 3.6 so as far as im concerned im getting a whole point more than i expected and to me thats value..i like this as a bet.

WIN - TOURARD MAN ( EW NAP ) - 2nd @ 4.25 ( hit 1.26 )
EW - RASCAL - 4th
LONG - FLINTHAM - 1st @ 9.38

Notes / Result : 
                                       ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

RACE 2 :
Next up is a small but classy chase with a few looking to mend broken reputations in this 5 runner Chase.
For me this is a 2 horse race Between Irish Saint and PUFFIN BILLY as the remaining three although useful look to have a bit to find and Puffin Billy is imo a different class of animal to these even Irish Saint has a bit to prove and has a bit of an attitude problem and if PB gets round in one piece then i feel it wins and wins well and isnt far off being a NAP selection and yet its 3.5 2nd Fav behind Irish Saint who got beaten by habitual non trier Vibrato Valtat last run and goes up in trip..quite significantly and with so many negs against it i am struggling to see how this exactly is an Even Money shot.....Bookies being bandits imo...

WIN - PUFFIN BILLY - Fell ( Poor jumper and would be better served reverting to a Hurdles career ).
EW - IRISH SAINT - 1st @ 1.88
LONG - N/A -

Notes / Result : 
                                       ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 3 :
7 Runner Hcap chase is next on the agenda and this although a shit race for punting could be quite profitable as its a massive Stat LAY race with or without trade.
FTW i would say either of this races previous winners ULK DU LIN or LANCETTO as both have very strong claims and around 5/1 the dutch this is an attractive " punt ".

WIN - ULK DU LIN - 2nd @ 6.69
EW - LANCETTO -
LONG - BALLYGARVEY - 1st @ 5.84

Notes / Result : 
                                       ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 4 :
JLT time todays big race well certainly in stature as we yet again encounter another big race ( almost £80k up for grabs ) with a paltry turn out and paying down to 8th with 5 runners im sure there are one or two owners thinking " why cant i get small share of that ? "....but i digress lets talk race and this race only has one real talking point ZARKANDER a horse everyone is saying is a reformed character and will stay at pace etc etc...well i for one am not at all convinced if anything not only do i not feel its a thorough stayer buts i also am not sure its an out n out G1 horse , yes its decent and is certainly upto C1 but there are big differences in what is required and when up against the best has pretty much always found wanting but this isnt the strongest renewal and he may win without being tested such is the paucity in strength against it with only Medinas looking a capable threat. Medinas himself turned around a nice piece of form lto when routing the 158 rated Cole Harden having been easily accounted for in its previous race so we know this has game but just how much more is the big question.
Aubsson is a nice sort that is on the upgrade but i dont think it is really of the required class to beat one or two here but is still a very decent sort and if the favs dont turn up is likely to make most as it will look to go from the front and get them strung out.
REV DI SIVOLA has won this race for the last two years and wasnt that well fancied either time and had a nice enough warm up in France behind Zarkander and will have been laid out for this so must be an obvious threat and danger but the truth is that Zarkander will win imo with a trouble free passage and will last home as he showed in France in weak conditions but isnt one to follow in the bigger events against more established stars.

WIN - ZARKANDER - 2nd @ 1.72 ( Done at 1.01 )
EW - REV DI SIVOLA - 1st @ 8.20
LONG - MEDINAS -

Notes / Result : 
                                       ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 5:
£100K on offer for this Listed Hcap Chase which has at least attracted some decent runners with all 9 runners looking tight in the weights and most come into it having a good sporting chance.
This is another huge Stat LAY race and that will be my angle of attack but for the Potters and Punters we shall look at potential winners n placers.
Last years Winner HOUBLON DES OBEAUX comes into this just 7lb higher and on the back of an excellent run in the Hennessy and for me is the likeliest winner although he will have to fight hard and be on the top of his game if these components click then for me hes the one and the price at 5.6 just about makes it a bet certainly nothing less than 5.50....
The Young Master has gone up around 80lb lol since it started notching up a rake of wins and is another " Hunt Ball " and he will also feel the ceiling of his ability close in and at 3.90 this is a cast iron , nailed on , stone walled LOTD ( This was 1st but traded at 15.0 in the run )...if it wins then i will just hold my hands up and say fair enough but i am more than happy to take it on at those odds.Its my opinion that the biggest dangers will arrive from Hey Big Spender who is doing well in his advanced years and the Nicholls pair...the rest look to be fighting for scraps imo...

WIN - HOUBLON DES OBEAUX - 2nd @ 6.49
EW - HEY BIG SPENDER - 4th
LONG - SOUND INVESTMENT - 5th

Notes / Result : 
                                       ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 6:
Its the days Finale and from a punting perspective is possibly the days toughest race its an absolute corker , 19 runners in a Hcap Hurdle and its choc packed full of really likable sorts and a few with some class.
We can forget Garde Le Victoire as i have that as my HCE tip and that is the truest Kiss of Death as you will find..seriously the fucker may as well stay at home in its nice warm box and chow down some hay....
So what can win it ??..Well i like Bayan , Shelford , Balgarry , Clondaw Warrior and Pine Creek and a small word for big outsider Jebril as The Commissioner doesnt tilt at windmills readily and he will have had this cherry ripe from a yard i really admire and respect and young Cannon is a fine pilot going places and at 100/1 this could give you a bit of fun with a low outlay....From the 5 i am Keen on Bayan is the most consistent and will be thereabouts stirring up trouble and is good for a FAP whilst SHELFORD comes into this having attracted a lot of support for a tilt at Cheltenham on the back of some fine victories and there will be  some anxious holders of ante post vouchers holding their breath but this couold and should be good for another 20 odd lb rise in the weights such has been the manner of his wins in particular making all to beat a rock solid field lto into submission..not flash but resilient , strong and reliable this horse is going places and today could see it rise right to the top.Pine Creek is not without ability and could easily have a say if in the right mood whilst Clondaw Warrior is trained by Mullins so has to be respected but his UK record is not sparkling so until Cheltenham the fear factor is off and BALGARRY at big double figure odds probably represents the best value bet as Pipe has no peers when it comes to readying a horse from a lay off and this ex French sort has shown enough in his runs to date to suggest he can play a part although this is the proverbial pit of for for a seasonal debut.


WIN - SHELFORD - 4th @ 6.40
EW - BAYAN - 1st @ 19.97
LONG - PINE CREEK - 2nd @ 13.11

Notes / Result : 
                                       ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Have a great day all...i may not be around tmrw..so GL >>>

Thursday Aftermath..

Well Folks that was a ride ,
                                         Thought as i had the whole day free to trade n bet (? did quite a bit of betting today as i am feeling " in the zone ) and i thought i would post  ( as i did ) most of what i was doing today for your digestion and thru the written down 16 Races we hit 5 Winners at 1.81 , 2.02 ( NB Bet ) , 4.74 , 5.03 and 10.40 giving a return of around 22 Points so theres a profit plus i was 100% on my Lays today and a couple of fap trades and PPL bets also paid off , there was a few losses along the road but stayed ahead the whole day thankfully...although i could of had a fair bit more had i followed Winters Patriotic NAP ( 1st @ 10.50 )  and the ERIC NAP ( 2nd @ 22.60 ) and i really ought to have slung those in for a little EW double..tut tut...that is however by the by...so all in all this week we have had some rather decent results , good reviews and some solid profit making..rather marv as its the mid week stuff as well but can we repeat the trick for the weekend ?..well we have a nice little 2 day Ascot meeting to focus on and that is where i shall be focusing my energies...with the Long Walk ( disappointing turn out expected ) the big race on Saturday.


So lets start this update by taking a peruse at the Friday ASCOT card...

RACE 1 : 

We start off the day with a steady 2m6f Maiden Hurdle and as we know by now these n the Juveniles are my bread n butter so im hoping to get a clean start on this as it always helps bolster the day.
Champagne Present will be a very warm order here with prices to range from 1.48 - 1.85 and you have to take caution with this , main reason being that the yard simply cannot buy a winner just now ( heres the list of his recent runners with the only winner being the one at the bottom

Form

• All runs
• Wins only
• Wins & Places
• After 60 day break

Date	Pos	Ride	Race details	Jockey	SP
17/12/14	2/10	Rose Revived	Nby12f Sft C6	A P McCoy	7/1
17/12/14	6/10	Monbeg Gold (IRE)	Nby19f Sft C4	A P McCoy	12/1
17/12/14	6/10	Dursey Sound (IRE)	Lud24f Gd/Sft C3	W Kennedy	33/1
17/12/14	5/17	Communicator	Nby16f Sft C4	A P McCoy	7/4
17/12/14	5/10	Oscar Fortune (IRE)	Nby24f Gd/Sft C3	A P McCoy	6/1
13/12/14	6/7	Mr Shantu (IRE)	Don16f Sft C4	Maurice Linehan (3)	13/2
13/12/14	4/10	Miami Present (IRE)	Ling16f Hvy C6	R P Mclernon	12/1
12/12/14	3/6	Kelvingrove (IRE)	Don19f Sft C3	A P McCoy	8/1
11/12/14	PU	Presence Felt (IRE)	War29f Sft C4	A P McCoy	5/2
11/12/14	7/13	Saint Lucy	War16f Sft C4	R P Mclernon	33/1
09/12/14	2/5	Cloudy Copper (IRE)	Utt24f Sft C4	A P McCoy	4/1
06/12/14	PU	Foundation Man (IRE)	Ain21f Gd/Sft C2	R P Mclernon	20/1
06/12/14	UR	Holywell (IRE)	Ain25f Gd/Sft C1	R P Mclernon	11/4
06/12/14	PU	Burton Port (IRE)	Ain26f Gd/Sft C1	R P Mclernon	33/1
06/12/14	UR	Touch Back (IRE)	Chpw24f Gd/Sft C3	W Kennedy	28/1
05/12/14	PU	American Legend (IRE)	Exe32f Gd/Sft C3	A P McCoy	13/2
05/12/14	8/8	Josies Orders (IRE)	Sand20f Sft C3	D C Costello	25/1
04/12/14	5/6	Vaihau (FR)	Mras21f Sft C4	A P McCoy	11/4
04/12/14	9/10	Temple Lord (FR)	Leic16f Gd C4	R P Mclernon	25/1
04/12/14	6/6	Finding Your Feet (IRE)	Mras25f Sft C4	A P McCoy	11/1
04/12/14	8/13	Beg To Differ (IRE)	Leic16f Sft C4	R P Mclernon	66/1
04/12/14	6/14	Capard King (IRE)	Mras19f Sft C4	A P McCoy	10/1
03/12/14	PU	Dreamsoftheatre (IRE)	Lud25f Gd/Sft C3	A P McCoy	16/1
02/12/14	2/9	Mad Jack Mytton (IRE)	Sou16f Gd/Sft C5	A P McCoy	7/1
02/12/14	3/7	Bandit Country (IRE)	Sou24f Gd/Sft C4	A P McCoy	9/4
02/12/14	2/6	Mackerye End (IRE)	Sou24f Gd/Sft C4	A P McCoy	6/1
02/12/14	5/7	O'callaghan Strand (AUS)	Sou20f Gd/Sft C4	A P McCoy	6/1
30/11/14	6/7	Mr Shantu (IRE)	Leic16f Sft C4	Maurice Linehan (3)	16/1
30/11/14	9/11	Mission Complete (IRE)	Leic23f Gd/Sft C4	R P Mclernon	50/1
29/11/14	3/19	Merry King (IRE)	Nby26f Sft C1	A P McCoy	14/1
29/11/14	3/6	More Of That (IRE)	Nby24f Sft C1	A P McCoy	4/7
27/11/14	2/7	Spookydooky (IRE)	Nby21f Hvy C4	A P McCoy	5/1
24/11/14	6/12	Stand Aside (IRE)	Lud21f Gd/Sft C4	R P Mclernon	33/1
22/11/14	PU	Taquin Du Seuil (FR)	Hayd25f Sft C1	B J Geraghty	9/2
22/11/14	13/16	Upswing	Hayd24f Sft C1	R P Mclernon	16/1
21/11/14	8/11	Josies Orders (IRE)	Asc24f Sft C3	B J Geraghty	7/2
21/11/14	6/8	Rum And Butter (IRE)	Asc19f Sft C3	W Kennedy	14/1
21/11/14	11/13	Rock Des Champs (IRE)	Asc19f Gd/Sft C3	W Kennedy	66/1
21/11/14	2/14	Milan Bound (IRE)	Hayd24f Sft C3	R P Mclernon	4/1
21/11/14	4/14	Master Malt	Hayd24f Sft C3	Raymond O'Brien (3)	20/1
20/11/14	F	Catching On (IRE)	Mras22f Sft C3	R P Mclernon	11/1
20/11/14	3/10	Capard King (IRE)	Mras19f Sft C4	R P Mclernon	14/1
19/11/14	7/18	Beg To Differ (IRE)	War16f Sft C4	R P Mclernon	25/1
19/11/14	1/10	Mont Royale	War19f Sft C4	R P Mclernon	20/1

)....So you see the big dilemma...Take a short price about a horse that should be a grade or to higher and has at least 20lbs in hand and should also have won fto but for AP making a poor move to late in a much better race than this....i am going to have to say that this for me is the Winner but i simply cannot get involved as JJ is in such poor form and had he been even luke warm then i would have lumped the house on it..but for today i will simply sit back watch n wait.....there will be better bets to come in the day but i do expect this to win and win very well and if it doesnt then the vets need to be sent down to Jackdaws asap.

RESULT : The Fav Champagne Present drifted right out to 2.42 and was UNPLACED...not a shock but JJ seriously should just shut up shop and get the whole set up inspected...shocking state of affairs at Jackdaws....WD Tricky i followed you in on Desilvano..nice battling performance.

RACE 2 :
Next up is a small field Hcap chase which at first glance looks too tight to call ....and after a 2nd glance i can confirm this is as tight as a nuns sleeve.
Key to the West will have all conditions to suit and will shrug off the rise in weights and has the in form Sheehan doing the steering however at around 11/4 its offers little to enthuse about as this is a huge STAT LAY race and  that always tempers enthusiasm in the Fav so much so i will swerve the Fav here which in fact as i double check is Dance Floor King at 5/2 so thats tight in itself...hmmm...OK then its gonna be dutch time as i go with KTTW & COLD MARCH As the Williams inmate has smart French form and was brought down at the first in his opening UK Debut and could be a bit better than these although not particularly well treated the 5/1 plus is decent enough cover...but with the Stat Lay option open and the possibility of it being a PPL race i will hold fire until nearer the time....

RESULT : Well i ended up going with the STAT LAY option and Lay / Trading Garrahalish which got matched after just 2 fences..so a decent result as that only managed 2nd anyway with the winner being Dance Hall King and Cold March had every chance leading upto the last then tiring a bit but battled well enough to suggest that it is well capable of winning a race or two.

RACE 3 :
Now we have the Class 1 Kennel Gate Novice Hurdle which for the last 3 years has been won by such luminaries as Irving , Molotof and Puffin Billy and im expecting another smart sort to take the honours here today but quite frankly i think its a cunting disgrace that once again in a £30k C1 we have a paltry fucking 4 runners...you trainers..hang your collective heads in fucking shame...greedy stupid or lazy...cant decide...
Killtuagh Vic is the Irish raider sent over by Wily Willie Mullins but this has beaten less than fuck all thus far and has been soundly thrashed by Shaneshill and Silver Concorde in Graded events and although the first read of that isnt too bad the fact he has shown little in combat against them makes me believe that Mullins is on a fiching mission as on the face of it this has no chance....the form behind Shaneshill maybe good but is it better than what else is on offer?...L'AMI SERGE is the current Fav albeit not by much and is an IDK radar horse that trotted up fto beating the 137 Rated runner up with a heavily eased down 6L and this was achieved even after flattening the last flight and making a few ricks on the way round....i dont think he will get away with making those errors today but at the same time i dont think he will be as extravagant as BG will have his measure and im expecting this to hack up today NAP >
#On a separate not Peace n Co pisses all over this at home to the point of teasing it and it will interesting to see exactly how well it wins and if Peace n Co has its price checked by the shrewdies,....

RESULT : BoooooooooooM as the NAP WINS at 2.15....Superb ;-)
              
RACE 4 :
Another Graded race worth  another £30k and again a pitiful field size...bottling bastards...!!...This is registered as the Noel Novices Chase and is over 2m3f and thankfully i come into this heavy handed with the days 2nd full on NAP ( yes 2 NAPS in the same day...fucking unheard off but its my fucking blog and i will have as many Naps as i feel appropriate ).......and the days 2nd NAP is JOSSES HILL the same horse that come on leaps n bounds last season with its last two runs being a close 2nd to the mighty Vautour in the Supreme and then winning the IFB at Aintree afterwards beating easily Sgt Reckless ( winner already this season ) and i will not summarise the others as quite frankly i will need picking up off the floor if this loses.                        ..

RESULT : Josses Hill comes 2nd after some elaborate and at times hairy jumping however i do feel had he not jumped into the back of Petit Zig and lost all momentum then this could easily have been a different result...disappointing but im not dispondant...

RACE 5:
Golems Father ???? >>>

Next up is a decent looking Hurdle ( Hcap ) over 2m6f which is for me a bit of a specialist trip and is being contested with a strong looking field.
H A A Bannister ( my jockey to follow ) has a solid looking ride in this riding LITTLE BOY BORU and this 8/1 shot comes into this with every chance having conditions to suit and im sure based on recent evidence he stays and having rode it last twice will know exactly what buttons to press and when and looks a decent EW bet although in truth i would be happier taking double figures and trading at around half odds...so i will wait...Batavir sees Pipe n McCoy team up and this has every chance and arrives in decent enough form even tho its been racing with conditions against so an improved performance is sure to be in the offing now but the 2/1 being offered screams LAY ME!!!!...and if i can get a lay in at anywhere near this i will fill my boots up and max out the account trying to get my money on because there is no way this is a 2/1 shot...3/1 or even 7/2 at the top....so if i can lay this at anything upto 3.6 i will gladly take that bet and anyone elses ( already had £300 matched ) this is gteed trade..nailed on...Spartan Angel should run a much bigger race today having its comeback over CD when 4th , Dream Deal is going in the right direction ...decent looking race and should be a good one to watch.

RESULT : Lay was traded as the Fav drifted so i dutched both the Fav and Spartan Angel with A.N.OTHER ( which won at 9.91 ) for a tasty win and a little bit of extras with the trade..Good result and a very nice win from Batavir @ 3.77 ( was trading as high as 5.6 )

RACE 6 :
For the Finale we have a Listed NHF race over 2m with a host of top class yards and very smart sorts on show with the field choc full of promise.
Rios Treasure @ 5/2 is a LAY as this is not in the top tier at the Mullins Yard and i feel he is just testing the water with this to see where his Champion bumpers rank , a crafty move but fully allowed as its running on merit but imo with little  chance even with the mighty Walsh steering.
Yanworth looks exciting and will obviously be a threat to all given connections and the Galileo Gelding Supasundae ( 1st @ 23.0 ) will have the advantage of blood given flat speed but i fancy a fap or EW dutch on THISTLECRACK and SIMON SQUIRREL as i feel both of these will be ready for this and could easily have enough class to damage a few reputations and they are at the right end of the betting table to get involved in such a tremendous looking race....not one to go crazy on but one if correct could prove rewarding.

RESULT : Rios Treasure was 3rd and Yanworth was a well beaten 2nd however mine ran around 5th and 7th...good race tho....

                                 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Have a great day...hopefully i can get a good idea of what to expect for Saturday and maybe win the Jackpot this week after narrowly missing out last weekend... ( 5 winners n a 2nd from 6 ).