Buenos Dias Amigo's ,
The weather for April is again outstanding after a couple of days of light cloud and high winds we have now reverted to type...glorious blue skies, hot sun and warm air.....
Yesterdays blog provided a few ok bets and some solid analysis although i will confess to being a bit surprised at Guitar Pete winning with that late last 1f surge....but we hit 2nd , 3rd and 4th for a good run of consistency , plus we nailed the obvious dutch in the next and just lucked out with a 2nd in the race that followed and then we again hit 2nd with Oscar Whiskey as it was left to much to do and stormed home but just couldnt get there....cant complain on the day..profit was made and that is always good...
Another great winner from E.R.I.C yesterday ( log into HCE and follow ) after a few quiet days and near misses , well worth following readers.
What have we for today...well day 2 of the great Aintree festival and its Ladies Day and it again looks a nice card with some quality about , as time is again of the premium i will not post a card but i will run right thru the card giving various betting and horse thoughts and it will be your job to find the diamonds among the coal.....
AINTREE DAY 2 >>>
Well we start the day of with a tasty looking 2m Hurdle race with JOSSES HILL coming in as a well supported 2.7 Fav having been properly smashed in for big money from 3.0 all the way down and in all honesty looks the likeliest winner on form and shown ability , its holds a few on literal form and a few others on collateral form and will be very hard to beat with the prospect of further improvement a given ( thru experience ) and not forgetting Hendo has won the race ( farmed ) 3 times in the last four years and the last twice with two very very high class sorts in Darlan and My Tent or Yours so is now thinking this is worth an upgrade ( Josses Hill ) , a win bet on this is probably the safest bet with the EW value hunters lurking they would be wise to look at Baltimore Rock ( 11/1 ) who i know is well regarded and looks a very progressive type and is gteed to run its race.>>>RESULT > JOSSES HILL - 1st @ 2.54 ;-))
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Battery has run out...looking for a charge point >>>>...
and im back......
RACE 2 >> ...The MILDMAY Chase and a small field that looks tight as so many have interlocking form and i feel the " Value " could lay with DON COSSACK @ 7/1 as this was going well until falling during the 2nd circuit and with a clear round will surely make a race of it , not a sure fire winner by a long way but is certainly in with a decent looking shout based on all known form.
Wonderful Charm @ 5.3 is a solid looking Lay as this is a real doubtful and weak stayer and i will happily be taking this on.
>>>>>>RESULT = HOLLYWELL 1st ( Don Cossack 2nd @ 5.50 )
RACE 3 >>>.....We now move onto the MELLING CHASE and this looks an intriguing race as many come into this on the back of top level form, broken promises and reputations that need to be restored.
The Fav for todays race is RAJDHANI EXPRESS @ 5.8 and is a fav in name only as the book needs to be balanced and this has rather unluckily been given the Favs slot...although its not without a chance i certainly wouldnt be backing it at such cramped and uninspiring odds, BALLYNAGOUR is an interesting runner for me having scooped my award for race of the festival as this absolutely hacked up and looked a cut above the opposition but this has been better when racing after a break and it was also patently laid out for that Cheltenham race and i think as good as it was this is a tough ask.....but i wouldnt be shocked to see it win.....I think the " Class " in this race is supplied by WISHFUL THINKING and if this is on a going day then will surely be too good imo however a lot has to be taken on trust as you just never know what type of mood this will be in or what type of race it will decide it wants to race......and finally as you may know im a fan of MODULE and although it may just lack the class to be truly competitive at Grade 1 level i think it has easily enough to get involved in this.>>>My Bet BALLYNAGOUR ran a cracker to come 3rd @ 6.0 ( hit 1.42 in the run ) , willie Mullins wins it with Boston Bob.
RACE 4 >>>>
Now we have a tough looking TOPHAM CHASE over the national course and this looks very competitive and 12/1 the field shows you how tough this is...
The horse i like in this will have to carry less ( or equal ) than 10-12 ( stat anomaly ) so the first will be CEDRE BLEU who just scrapes in on 10-12 and at very big odds a cheeky EW on BENNYS MIST as this is a race not to get too financially involved in. - Result - BoooooM as BENNY'S MIST runs a great race for 2nd @ 75/1 ( 12.50 )
RACE 5 >>>>>
This years renewal of the SEFTON looks a crazy affair as any one of around 10 look to have the ability to win....and im going to row in with a very tentative selection on CAPOTE.......and hope AP can provide the requisite magic although it will have to again show further improvement.
Thats me done for today , sun , beer and some lazy trading beckons.....CIAO...x
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