Tuesday, 15 April 2014

Early Thursday Thoughts....

 Morning / Afternoon , Another sunny day means another " Beach Day " and so for the early Thursday review i will focus on the days 4 main big trial races and hopefully i can guide you to some profit or give you another angle in which you can dissect and scrutinise....

Todays 1st Race is the WOOD DITTON a race for 3 yr olds over 1m and a race won previously by the likes of Mukhadram although in truth the winner of this rarely goes on to win much after and looking through the entire field of the last 3 years renewals i dont hold much hope for any in truth...this seems like a white elephant of a race....a poison chalice if you like....
But i will offer my own unique insight to try and unravel this affair...here goes..The first on my list would have to be the very well bred PRINCE OF STARS from Mick Channon and ridden by G Lee this Son of Sea The Stars son is a proper half sister to the very good Lady of the Desert ( 1st: 2009 Princess Margaret Stakes (GB-Gr2,6F-T, Ascot), 2009 Lowther Stakes (GB-Gr2,6F-T, York), 2010 Diadem Stakes (GB-Gr2,3yo+,1200m,Ascot)
2nd: 2010 Sprint Cup (GB-Gr1,3yo+,1200m,Haydock), 2010 Prix De L'Abbaye De Longchamp (FR-G1,2yo+,5f-T,Longchamp)
3rd: 2009 Cheveley Park Stakes (GB-Gr1,2yo F,1200m,Newmarket), 2010 Fred Darling Stakes (GB-Gr3,3yo F,1400m,Newbury).) and could prove to be a very good , speedy 2 yr old and should be watched in the markets.

I also like the other Sea The Stars colt MAWASEEL although the dam has no real progeny performances to call upon but still looks blue bred but is also the 2nd string for the owner as Hanaghan has taken the ride on Tabreek but i will not back any USA bred unless the ground turns firm or the blood provides a strong reason to change.

Finally i have heard some good words and received good reports regarding the Haggis trained SATELLITE by Danehill Dancer and this could be a proper group horse...but time will tell.....

My Selection would be Satellite as a Win / Place Lay as a lot of these precocious types will be looked after if the chance to win has gone...but in all honesty its not really a race to get to madly involved in.

RACE 2 is....THE ABERNANT STAKES a race over 6f for 3yr olds plus and is usually won by a sprinter with a touch of class but rarely by the Fav....and that is a stat the irks me here as i feel ALJAMAHEER has an outstanding chance ...that said all of its best form is over 1m..admittedly this form is outstanding but its still not sprint form..so where do we look , Es Que Love is an absolute nutcase but an outstanding speedball and if the switch to Cox has had the desired effect this could try and make all and burn them all off...but a lot of if's n butt's here with this....
TROPICS is the horse that comes under the banner " out n out sprinter " and will give them all a race and if in the mood could easily be upto winning this but sprinters rarely run two races alike...a good option but its a bet on a whim...

To be honest the remainder have it all to do in this company although they all have some back form which entitles them to a tad of respect but none could be backed with any confidence.

Summary : The Stats say the Fav cant win , ALJAMAHEER has all its best form over 1m but i do think it could prove to be a class above these , a small field lacking in options and real class this lay between Aljamaheer and Tropics and i will be going in with a win on Aljamaheer and a saver on Tropics.

Todays third race and the principal race of this meeting is the Craven and this has again received a poor turnout , this won last year by the brilliant Toronado and has been won by the Favourite 5 times in the last 7 runs and 3 times in the last 4 and this years Favourite is likely to be 122 rated Toormore ( Toronado only rated 114 last year ) and this comes here unbeaten in 3 although i dont feel it beat much at the Curragh but its run in the Vintage Stakes was very good indeed and this will take a world of beating if back to that level or higher.
The Grey Gatsby doesnt look good enough and will have to have improved markedly to get involved here today , Be Ready and Postponed both look interesting ass they hold decent enough form already and with improvement expected could easily be upto making a race of this but Anjaal looked a bit of a speed merchant at 2 and will do well to transfer his form at 1m on the first go....

Everywhere you look it ends up coming back to the Fav and in all honesty backing against it here is a mugs bet...may pay off but you will need more luck than judgement to come out on top......SUMMARY : Win on the Fav is the only logical bet choice to make.

Finally we have the Earl of Sefton stakes for the older brigade  ( 4yr + ) and this is just packed with " ye olde enemies " as these all pretty much have form against one and other with some collateral form thrown in to mix it up.
FIRST MOHICAN can give Alan King a tidy winner as this former Cecil inmate is a very useful flat performer and destroyed a couple of good fields previously when winning tat York and Nottingham over this distance and any return to that form would put it in with a big chance.
Elsewhere JUST THE JUDGE will be looking to get his career back on track after running two very poor races last season as his season nosedived after 3 very good runs especially when winning the Irish 1000 Guineas and had only been denied by the brilliance of Sky Lantern and any real return of form and this will be hawking them all up and could easily run a place or better.
The remainder all have a Chance of sorts and a solid case could be reasonably made for any and i certainly wouldnt try and talk anyone out of backing the outsiders here as i really dont feel there are any.

Summary: I will be backing Just the Judge and First Mohican in a decent sized dutch and will looking to get small place lays matched at around the 1.12 mark as both have the potential to flatter only to deceive ....

Thats it for Day 2 as i hit the Bar once again....TTFN x

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