Tuesday, 22 April 2014

Afternoon Blog Fans...

Hi all , im back from Sunny Spain and have swapped ...for this... Oh the Joys.....Back to reality it is and on with the weekly trading , race cards etc but i must say i find the Flat season a million times more enjoyable than NH , i have no real reason why this is i just get a bigger buzz from it so i should be reasonably happy till November Now....
**Rib Update .....As a few of you may know i fell off a 10ft concrete wall onto the corner of a smaller 4ft Concrete wall cracking 3 ribs and causing some scarring to my lower right forearm...this was imo an accident however those that were with me the night it happen will just say it was me having a drink too many and thinking i was Spiderman ;().....I can breathe a lot better and until i sneezed this morning was thinking i was on the road for a decent recovery and was even thinking i may be better in time for the May Golf comp at Cottingham park....but sneezing sets me back at least by a day or two and still causes me great discomfort although i do truly feel i will be ready for the Golf comp in Malaga in June with the WPGS ......fingers crossed the next couple of weeks turns out ok....

On the horse front we have some nice looking sorts coming out to play as it is Trials season after all and we start the week in earnest tmrw at Epsom with a Derby Trial and a couple of old enemies lining up in the Hcaps which tbf look quite competitive , elsewhere i do believe that at Xmas i advised you guys to get stuck into LFC for the Prem Title @ 12/1 as i felt they had a very good chance and were over priced.....they now lead by 5 points and are 1.18 with just a few games left.....and Moyes has been asked to leave Man Utd...he should not have taken the job...it was a task too much for any man, poor squad, low funds , following Sir Alex.....this was a poison Chalice..poor bloke...he doesnt deserve the stick hes getting imo even tho i didnt feel he was a big enough character to take this role on he was never going to be a success and certainly not in his first season...it took Alex the Great 4 seasons to produce and the myth is he was a game away from getting sacked himself....he will recover and will do well with another team as i feel he is a decent enough manager but not for Man Utd...

On the Golf front in  particular the USPGA tour we have some good results coming thru with some nice bets landed thus far and the trading has been meaty , Speith still needs following as does Adam Scott , Dufner , Kuchar , Westwood and Donald will all be up there in all comps and we also have two or three breaking thru or coming back and obv dont forget this years masters Master Bubba Watson....mercurial , bizarre but at times astonishing....Tiger has turned into a flat track bully , Big Phil is making too many errors and the old guard are done....

Right..so onto Epsom tmrw....

EPSOM > > >

RACE 1 : 
EW - TAAJUB - unp

SUMMARY : A 15 runner 5f Hcap ..for Epsom this is a tough start however it will be held on near perfect racing ground so it should give us a fair result. As with all sprints and sprinters nothing can be taken for granted as they flick in and out of form at a drop of a hat.
Stone of Folca wud be the best of these at his best but that hasnt been the case for some time now, often shows up well but looks a 4f horse these days and the openings for those races are nil....but it did run a time of 53 secs once so has to be respected for that alone...
TAAJUB still retains plenty of ability and is capable of winning a race like this and comes into this with a bit of recent form having won on his penultimate start but true to fashion ran a nothing race next time out , capable and worth a punt if big odds for a chancey EW.
We also have quite a few CD winners coming out and tbh i think at this stage you could just throw a blanket over half a dozen...New Forest has it all to do off top weight and will probably give a couple to strong today so my idea of a punt in this is FITZ FLYER , you can write off his last two runs and then focus on the good solid form previously , runs well fresh in fact is probably at his best after a break , likes the trip , likes all field sizes , can adapt his racing style to suit although i feel the bigger fields are more conducive to his racing CV , has Fallon riding and will go off at biggish double figure odds and is well worth a few pennies EW.

NOTES :  Winner ( Caspian Prince ) got away out front and nothing else really got involved....poor race but well judged ride from Kirby...
RACE 2 : 
WIN - JAKEY - unp
LONG - BEACON LADY - 1ST @ 19.40

SUMMARY : Another race now for the older brigade but this time its a 1m4f affair and it looks a cracker . This isnt one to get too involved in unless you really feel you have an angle as to me it looks wide open , a super competitive affair where some judgement may be swayed by the heart rather than the head....
JAKEY is an interesting runner for Pat Phelan as this has only been out 4 times coming 7th twice and 1st twice inc a Win here at Epsom over 10f and with its distance winning time well within the scope of this race this son of Cape Cross surely has every chance although i would want double figure odds before i got tempted.
Red Runway has to be taken on as i feel its tripless and paceless and will find at least half a dozen too good..Place Lay for me at anything i can get at 6/4 ( 2.5 ) or under...
Dark Ruler & Certavi both arrive from yards more known for their NH exploits but can ready a flat winner or three and both have to be respected as potential winners.
Aryal looks a bit doggish and can be Place Laid also...Semeen i think has form figures that flatter and is in my opinion Class 4 at best and more likely to win in class 5 events it has beaten nothing of note and looks weak.

NOTES : Won a few quid on the dutch with a nice priced winner but did better on the two Place Lays as both ran unplaced...;-)
RACE 3 : 
WIN - OUR CHANEL - 1st @ 21.50

SUMMARY : Now its time for the days main race and its the Derby Trial over 1m2f in which we have two interesting runners from Gosden , a seasonal debut from Moontime from the boys in blue , The over rated but battle hard Hartnell and the remainder that all look like they could be tasty...do you row in with the Sea the Stars progeny as a bet out of loyalty , go with form , names...yes you really need to clutching some straws here.
The first one i really like is by a sire i will be following closely this year English Chanel and the horse is the Charlie Hills colt OUR CHANEL which has so far run over 5f,6f and 7f and in winning the latter named was going on strong at the business end and with a bit of strengthening up , age and experience im expecting this to run to around 110 at least today ( will be needed ) and this could prove the answer in a tricky puzzle.
The next on my list is MOONTIME who although not entered for the Derby ( Gelded but then neither of the Gosden pair are entered ) could prove good enough to add some stock to the otherwise disappointing bloodline that is Sea the Stars...
Lastly im gonna stick a few EW pennies on TRIP TO PARIS because its from one of my fav NH pedigrees and sires in Champs Elysee's , doesnt make any real sense but this for a Derby trial is fucking bollocks in truth and the more i have gone through all relevant data the more disappointed i have become... 

NOTES : Another nice winner and well backed by me at 21.50 ;-)
RACE 4 : 
EW - CLAYTON - 2nd @ 11.50

SUMMARY : Clayton is up 6lb for landing a strong Pontefract handicap on soft ground and should go well but this looks tough though he holds Sennockian Star on that run. Red Avenger was placed in two handicaps at this level before failing in a Group 3 and the Cambridgeshire and this looks more his class. Hi There could do with some rain but showed up well on his reappearance in the Lincoln and has to be respected, especially as he holds several of these on his victory at Newbury in October. Tres Coronas is 12lb higher than his last victory though the booking of Mikael Barzalona catches the eye while Ajman Bridge has only run four times and has more scope than most of these rivals. Rock Choir couldn't quite cope with Listed company after victories at Goodwood and Newbury but looks on a fair mark and has to be a threat though the vote in a wide-open handicap goes to PASAKA BOY, the winner of a competitive handicap here last summer and just 2lb higher despite scoring again at Newbury on his final start.

RACE 5 : 
EW - RAVENOUS - 1st @ 3.74

SUMMARY : The Hannon yard has won this twice in the past four years and though After The Goldrush has only looked moderate so far and will need to find more this isn't the strongest looking maiden. D'AVIGNON has something to live up to as his dam has produced six earlier foals and all have won including Group 1 winner Rainbow View. John Gosden's colt looked in need of a stiffer test on both starts last term and should get it here. Moshe is likely to need further than this as will Ravenous, who couldn't go the pace over 7f at Doncaster but had run well over a mile on his final start last season. Swilken was a 50/1 chance when runner-up at Lingfield but the winner has been beaten three times subsequently while Permitted has been well beaten in both starts.

RACE 6 : 
EW - BEACH BAR - 2nd @ 9.20

SUMMARY : Another tricky race for punters to fathom. Black Caesar attempted to make all over 7f at Lingfield and will have benefited greatly from the run while Beach Bar ended his first campaign with a victory over a mile on that track and looks certain to improve this year. KILLING TIME made excellent progress last season winning at Windsor and Kempton, both times in blinkers. He wasn't wearing them on his reappearance at Doncaster where he looked just in need of the run and, as they are back on here, he gets the vote. Chatez is by the sprinter Dandy Man but is a half-brother to two winning bumpers. He looked a nice type when scoring at Newbury and is by no means harshly treated for his handicap debut. Mime Dance won a 7f maiden here in September when the ground was soft and it's difficult to rule out any of the remainder in a wide-open contest.



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