Monday, 14 April 2014

Afternoon from the Costa Blanca...

Hi All ,
         As i enter the final week of my stay in the sun i am starting to focus and gather my stats and this is why im posting this early card , thoughts and analysis for Weds as that heralds the start of the classic month as it is Craven time and this is when the shit gets real.....

The last couple of short posts have been fruitful and have provided plenty of profit bearing analysis and tip / bet im hoping im coming into this flt season on point and in tune although i dont have a breeding program to work from just yet im sure over the next few weeks this will come to light.

So lets take a look at Newmarket on WEDS and see how we fare...
As you can see this is a rather unique course and is also termed as the home of racing or HQ ( Head Quarters ) with most races  ( certainly upto 1m2f ) ran on a straight line where pace and tactics will be pivotal to any success , a strong front runner can do very well likewise a good strong finisher that is well ridden can easily find  spot to pounce and this is also  course that runs true and allows for a literal reading of form lines unless the ground rips up soft or worse as this can provide some odd times and stranger results.

Todays big three races will be the European Free Hcap , Nell Gwynn and the Fielden Stakes.......let the fun begin.


ANALYSIS - A tricky 3 yr old maiden to start the card where most with experience look only average although improvement will be expected as the norm and we have a few well bred sorts.
The best bred is probably EMIRATI SPIRIT  a New Approach colt that looks to be Varians main hope as its being ridden by the stables newly appointed retained jockey A Atzeni and should be watched when betting starts any strong support would make me very keen and likewise if it is drifter then i would leave or lay.Imo the strongest with form is probably Provident Spirit but in truth all the form on offer is quite weak my personal preference is for Speculative Bid who ran well enough behind Jallota on his last run to suggest more improvement is in the offing and this could go off at decent price.
WIN - HARRY HURRICANE -  ( EW NAP ) - 3rd @ 3.72
LONG - ABSCENT FRIENDS - 2nd @ 11.41

ANALYSIS - Next up is a tidy little 5f race for 2yr old speedballs and this should in all honesty be dominated by the three that have form including winning form and they are FLYBALL , ABSCENT FRIENDS &  HARRY HURRICANE and my preference at this stage is for HARRY HURRICANE that was beaten fto by Flyball but was only beaten a neck/nose and now receives enough weight to easily turn the tables plus you would expect HH to carry more improvement into this as that was his first run and i feel a similar run will be good enough to both turn the tables and win although Flyball has proven to be a tough nut to crack, Abscent Friends comes from the wily yrd of Bill Turner and his speedsters re always ready and worth fearing at the early season stage however it won at Southwell fto and will do well to carry that form into this his first start on the turf but dont write off completely...
WIN - TOOFI - 2nd @ 3.32
LONG - MAGNUS MAXIMUS - 1st @ 35.05

ANALYSIS - Now we have the 100k Tatts race for 3 yr olds over 6f with a rather poor turnout considering its a $54k race...just the 13 runners but at the same time this is a tight affair with very little to separate most of these , we lots of form both literal , lateral and collateral to decide upon and their is also a disparity in the weights /ratings.....
I think the first place to look is with TOOFI who is a CD winner and has multiple CD form and comes into this one of the highest rated , is racing on pretty much its ideal surface and this trip should be spot on although being by Henrythenavigator one would think or expect it to want 1m later on but at this stage this looks to me the likeliest winner and if betting win single only this would probably be my choice.
WEDDING RING could be interesting back over 6f who herself is a CD winner and also gets a sex allowance however her splits were average and the time a good bit slower than a few others plus she doesnt look a natural sprinter and after this a step back upto 7f or even another crack at 1m will surely be in the offing....
BON VOYAGE at anything remotely sensible will be a MAX LAY for me and i will also try to nil a bit in running as i see no way this winning today....or any day in this grade on available evidence.
The Richard Hannon 2nd string looks quite good tho MAGNUS MAXIMUS and could run a big race if trained on as it had some good splits in its last rce and this track will run ideal and you can throw a blanket over the remainder so a speculative longshot maybe Naadir for the Botti yard with Luke Morris riding.....
WIN - SHIFTING POWER - 1st @ 2.76 ( hit 30.0 in run )
LONG - MUSHIR - 2nd @ 4.54

ANALYSIS - The first of todays big races as we hold the European Free Handicap a race by many a star or horse of quality including the likes of last years winner Garswood ( didnt end up staying 1m but held its form over shorter throughout the season ) and ...well thats it really.....yes this is a reasonably high profile early season race but carries no weight now what so ever as just about every winner from the last twenty years has proven to be average  or worse with very few coming through to be anything else..../..another stat is that Favs have a rather shite record in this with the winner usually being either the second or third fav so this looks an obvious dutch to me in a small field event with an unbalanced book.
Tough to call the winner even with  dutch at this stage so i will say that come race day should Shifting Power be 2.6 or less then it simply becomes a MAX LAY as the bet and a trade is nailed on as this will be a very oddly run race with all bar The fav and Mushir likely pace setters.....
WIN - MAJEYDA - 3rd @7.60
EW - EURO CHARLINE - 2nd @ 6.4
LONG - LILY RULES - 6th ( only beaten 3L @ 55.0 )

ANALYSIS - The second of the days big three races The Nell Gwynn a 7f affair with 15 runners and this looks pretty decent and rather competitive and it looks stacked with pace so expect fireworks...
The first runner to come up on my radar is LILY RULES a proven Distance winner that has shown on several occasions tht it stays the trip with ease, can race on or off the pce can quicken and has the heart for a fight and this was trained by the likes of Stoute , Appleby etc then it would be a good deal shorter...This could run a huge race at a Huge the sort of odds im expecting then a few quid on a FAP is a no harm done bet.
Majeyda is a danger and will run a big race , another CD winner with excellent placed form over 1m  ( May Hill stakes being easily the best ) and will get  very smooth run through as SDS takes over from Inspector Clouseau in the saddle....i will be a little surprised if this cant place at least.
Miss Lillie heads a supporting cast of at least 10 others that all have claims of a sort....this is when it becomes a guessing game and personal choice takes over from the form guide and statistics...
***This race is a graveyard for Favourites....Sandiva at fair odds is a big Lay...( currently ) ...Sandiva went off the 4.98 Fav , WON but traded comfortably @ 10.0 in the run...another easy trade.
WIN - TRUE STORY - 1st @ 3.80

***First three home were well clear...

ANALYSIS - Possibly the toughest of the days featured races the Fielden over  tough 1m1f which not many can get and even less so this early on and it takes a proper staying sort to get this trip at pace which we have for sure.
a tricky race in which nearly 30lbs separates the top rated from the bottom but racing t level weights bar Somewhat who carries a penalty for winning a Class 1 ( Washington Singer ) over 7f t Newbury ( form at Newbury is always a dispute ) but must come into the reckoning as it was a good 2nd  ( beaten a neck ) in the Royal Lodge stakes over 1m and was running on strong t the end and i feel the step up in trip will be no problem at all although the ground will be an issue should it ride any softer than good.
Barley Mow looks a stayer in the making along with Madeed and Obliterator making this a good trials race for all the classics although last years winner Intello was the last half decent winner.....and again is another that Favs have a poor record........
TRUE STORY looks to be  very interesting runner from the boys in blue as both of its runs ( 1st n 2nd ) were here at HQ and both over 7f where it showed a willing attitude and being by Manduro will be expected to be an improved stayer over the course of the season as this bloodline is one that  improves with both age and distance and i am expecting big things from this and again its a billy bonus that SDS takes the ride ( still think he is nos 1 for the stable over the clown that is Barzalona ) .....


So all in all a tough day with tough decisions but some quality racing and a day where we will have a good gauge on how stables are performing, jockeys are riding and what we are up against , today is not a day to smash as most races will require a watching brief but i think we can profit from some good Lays and trades as most have the opportunity for both , hopefully back tmrw for another advanced read on Thursdays card....

**In the 1710 both AYRAD ( 5th )  and CONNECTICUT ( 3rd at 28.63 ) are on my long range breeders guide and in the 1740 KAAB and GREEB ( 3rd @ 8.41 ) both look interesting improvers....TTFN x


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