Thursday, 24 April 2014

The Friday Post....

Evening all ,
                 As the flat season gathers a pace we find ourselves nicely spoilt for a Friday as we have both Donny* and SANDOWN having meetings and both look decent with imo Sandown being the pick as it holds some very nice looking races indeed and i will be producing a card for this , Sandown itself is a grade 1 track which is a true track that lets horses run as they should and usually returns a solid set of results.
 Course Details
Flat Course
Sandown Racecourse Flat Course
Effect Of Draw

Right-handed oval of 1m5f with 4f uphill run-in. Essentially galloping. Separate diagonal 5f also uphill
So there ya go..lets crack on with Friday's 7 Race Card....

EW - END OF LINE - 3rd @ 3.75

SUMMARY : We start the day off with a very decent looking ESHER CUP a race over 1m for 3yo's and not a race that favours Favourites by statistics as few ever do well here which is not surprising as the Fav is usually that on last seasons form or hype and both are frail stats to look upon as so many come having improved a stone or are just early to hand types.
Against the Stats John Gosden ( Won this in 2009 & 2010 ) looks to have the winner in Secret Act a horse that Won well over 1m on soft ground despite carrying his head high and running green but was full of running and with natural improvement expected this should easily turn into a 110+ horse and could well be the winner in this but i will look for some value against it today.
Richard Hannon ( now Jnr ) runs two ( has also won this twice in recent years ) and stable jockey Richard Hughes returns to riding by taking the ride aboard Art Official who ran some fine races last year but will have to have improved significantly to trouble the fav and the other Cricklewood Green has yet to encounter softer going but looks a very nice sort open to any amount of improvement.
End of Line is the mount of out of form Jamie Spencer and was a shock winner fto winning at 25/1 but won that maiden very very easily by a cosy 6L and this is the proverbial dark horse....
First Flight was a weak maiden winner that then got thrashed on ideal ground in the Acomb stakes and with the ground now out of favour has to be over looked.
Almargo won 3 times on the AW but this godolphin cast off has beaten nothing of note and is another that has far too many questions to answer and cant be considered as a bet.
What about Carlo and Streetforce look to be heading into moderate Hcaps after this as both are exposed and look no better than a rating of around 74 so have it all to do....
So after my analysis i can find no value alternative to the Fav...sigh...such a shame....its current price of 3.25 does allow for some BTL action and currently that is the only bet choice i have , however if it stays between 3.30 - 3.85 then it becomes a max LTB.


WIN - TELESCOPE ( NAP ) - 2nd @ 3.83
EW - NOBLE MISSION - 1st @ 5.60
LONG - N/A -

SUMMARY : Next up its the Gordon Richard Stakes for the older brigade ( 4yr + ) and it looks a decent turn out.
Yes its a small field but its a good quality field with all the runners having shown a good or better level of form. The first one we simply have to mention is TELESCOPE...Once talked about as a possible Derby Favourite and possible legend this had trouble in training and only ran three times last year with the best of them in the final outing when winning a good Voltiguer this bypassed last years St Leger for " better " engagements which never came to pass but this will be his sure of it...this is a seriously classy sort and it will take either a world class run to beat him or he turns up and runs well below par...but any run to form and he wins this probably hard held....
Noble Mission a full brother to Frankel is a horse i love..its all heart ( and a bit of class ) but is not quite group 1 class that said this is his perfect trip ( only just stays 1m4f ) loves all ground ( bar heavy ) and will make them all go and should Telescope not turn up will be the one battling on to take advantage.
Sky Hunter who won four from 5 for A Fabre last term could be anything as its relatively untried but on his first outing in the UK will have to be at least as good as his official rating just to get involved.....the rest..well...good honest performers that really shouldnt be able to get a blow in at this level....

NOTES : Having also made Sky Hunter my LOTD ( posted on PUK ) ..this was a big boom race for me ;-)))

WIN - MONTIRIDGE - 2nd @ 4.73

SUMMARY : Another for the older brigade as we head into the Bet365 Mile and this is packed with class ( based on old and current form ) ...if you was to look into the back form on most of these then just about any could win...very tough i think i may stick with current form and not let my heart get involved...#
This will be a good earner for me as i will be laying both Pentinent and Tullius @ around 8.0 as neither will be winning this unless something incredible happens or the perpetrators of flight MH370 are involved...
The winner will come from the trio of GARSWOOD , TOP NOTCH TONTO or MONTIRIDGE , TNT really come into form and his own last season with four or five runs of the highest quality and considering he was struggling in Hcaps and the ilk before it was a brilliant rise up the ranks...can he sustain it this year ??...well i can only say "time will tell" . 
Personally i like to stick with not just proven form ( TNT ) but pure class , a blood dripping blue and a horse that has always and continues to run to form or thereabouts...and for me the class is with 2 he was 2nd in the Autumn Stakes ( after winning his maiden with ease ) , at 3 he Won the Heron Stakes ( Listed ) , Head 2nd in the Jersey Stakes , Won the Pink Stubbs ( Listed ) , Won the Bonhams Stakes , ...then put a no show in the Bet Fred Mile in which Top Notch Tonto Won easily and was then a moderate 2nd to Soft Falling Rain in the Nayef Joel Stakes, now those last two runs were 2 too many as its my opinion he had just too much racing last year and was pretty much burnt out after a long hard season and just went off the boil...I think this former CD winner will be right back to his mercurial best today and will have too much kick for the others.
GARSWOOD is a bit of an enigma , liked by me for the 2000 Guineas last year it never really got going and has quite a bit of form to over turn to beat these, the step up in trip may help but then again may not...wouldnt be a total shock if it won..just very unlikely...but will be back to winning ways sooner rather than later , a nice sort that deserves some success but will it be here or back sprinting ?? this space.

NOTES : Ground is now soft and that changes everything....anything could now win...1443pm>> As expected the 3 outsiders all of which had superior soft ground form were at the fore...Tullius wins ( both of my Lays were caped pre race as posted on PRFB ).

WIN - WESTERN HYMN - 1st @ 1.59
EW - N/A -
LONG - N/A -

SUMMARY : Now we have a Derby Trial and a race that has had as much bearing on the outcome as i have...and this race looks pants tbh with only WESTERN HYMN offering any slivers of class and i am going to hope that class wins the day.
I really dont know what to say about the remainder..a poor bunch with poor form , poor attitudes and little to like . Most have been running in low grade shit that means most are nothing more than average Hcappers at best and if Western Hymn cant win this on the bridle then he may as well go to stud now.
I cant even summon the energy to write about the others as they shouldnt be lining up in a Derby Trial...Polytrack ( AW ) winners and runners, Group 4 and 5 runners and not even winners...this is shit....Western Hymn...Win or Fuck Off....

NOTES : Not very impressive but did run green , will improve...will need to tho...

LONG - HEY CHEWED - 2nd @ 15.80

SUMMARY : Next up is a race for 3 yr olds over 5f with 12 runners and plenty of pace this is a tough race to call.
Sacha Park is a complete dog regardless of its win lto i wouldnt back this with bags of dog shit and will gladly lay this all day long...
Stars above Me could be anything and is open to bags of improvement and is best watched just now but isnt out of it. Desert Ace is a CD winner but won an ordinary race in a slow time so gives me nothing , PUSHKIN MUSEUM has only won two egg n spoon AW races but did so quite well and rattled home two decent times with decent splits so is high on my list of probables and with Moore ridng ...yes this could be the one.
CHARLES MOLSON arrives from in form ( and excellent trainer of sprinters ) H Candy and is another which could easily improve 20lb through the season and must go on the shortlist and finally i think we should have HEY CHEWED whose best run was at Yarmouth when he clocked some very quick times and any improvement ( or run to form ) will put him bang in the mix.

NOTES : i Was convinced i had Ecclestone ( Winner ) as my WIN it a million times yet never twigged...but i backed it from my subconscious regardless...very strange...

EW - TIME SIGNAL ( Champs Elysees runner ) -

SUMMARY : The Stoute camp won this last year so the superbly-bred Time Signal is one to keep an eye on as she makes her debut. Nancy From Nairobi was a 40/1 chance on her debut at Newbury but ran really well and the experience won't have been lost on her. Sweeping Up is by Sea The Stars and a half-sister to several useful winners. She'll be much better suited by today's trip and should put the experience gained last season to good use. Wahgah started odds-on for her debut in a Newmarket maiden but disappointed and the form hasn't worked out. With the Gosden yard in unstoppable form, MILLIONAIRES ROW looks a logical selection to make a winning start as she's a half-sister to three winners including a Grade 1 winner in the USA. Perfect Light is by Galileo out of the very speedy Beauty Bright and related to a couple of winners so she's also worth a market check.


WIN - WINDSHEAR - 1st @ 13/8
EW - ELITE ARMY - 3rd @ 5/2

SUMMARY : A very tricky finale with most of these having the scope to go on to better things though Richard Hannon has a very strong hand with Hymenaios and WINDSHEAR, who both made impressive reappearances. The former made his debut over this trip on soft ground at Doncaster and came through smoothly from the back to land a maiden going away. He can go well but it's his stablemate who has to be the selection as his close second to the well-supported Cloudscape over this trip at Newmarket was a cracking effort and, with the winner now rated 94, Richard Hughes' mount looks very well treated. Taghrooda is by Sea The Stars out of a triple Listed winner who stayed 1m6f so this could prove on the short side but Elite Army did everything right at Kempton and there's much more to come. It's impossible to find one without a chance of sorts and Gothic appreciated soft ground to score at Leicester while Mannaro justified strong support to land a decent Yarmouth maiden.


__________________________________The ground killed a lot today <<<<<<>>>>>>


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