Saturday, 19 July 2014

The IRISH OAKS

TARFASHA...this is the one on form both current and historical and arrives from the eternally and perpetually in form stable of Dermot Weld and this should get the run of the race with so many b list o'brien runners out .

There only a couple of relevant dangers in this line up with the first of them being the Cumani trained VOLUME a horse that has little to find and will be better suited here than at Epsom where it rolled around on its cambers and will be running on towards the end when most have given up as most are non stayers...

And the 2nd real danger is BRACELET who lto Won the Ribbelsdale which form wise isnt as strong but did prove she stayed well enough although you can make a decent enough case for Lustrous on that showing as the Hannon inmate was running on strong at the end but it is puzzling as to why JoB has chosen to ride Tapestry here a horse that hasnt raced over more than 1m and doesnt look a stayer at all....maybe they are seeing a different animal at home.....

Summary : Straight forward WIN bet on Tarfasha here @ 3.4+ which i feel is a fair price although i wouldnt be too dismissive on Lustrous at 20/1 as this is a very good EW punt for those wanting some value.

Result : 

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (3)Bracelet (IRE)A P O'Brien39-0 hC O'Donoghue10/1
Dwelt, soon chased leaders, ridden in 3rd 2f out, improved to lead 1 1/2f out, stayed on well under pressure final furlong opened 9/1
2nd (10)nkTapestry (IRE)A P O'Brien39-0J P O'Brien13/2
Mid-division, pushed along in 7th 3f out, ridden in 6th 2f out, went 3rd 1f out, stayed on well final furlong, went 2nd at line opened 5/1
3rd (2)nk10 VolumeL M Cumani39-0K J Manning4/1
Led and clear, ridden under 3f out, headed 1 1/2f out, no impression on winner 1f out, dropped to 3rd at line opened 7/2
4th (7)Beyond Brilliance (IRE)A P O'Brien39-0 hAnastasia O'Brien80/1
In rear, ridden in last 2f out, progress on wide outer 1 1/2f out, moderate 7th 1f out, kept on without threatening go go 4th inside final furlong opened 66/1
5th (4)1Tarfasha (IRE)D K Weld39-0P J Smullen7/4f
Chased leaders, 3rd halfway, ridden in 2nd 2f out, dropped to 4th 1f out, no extra opened 2/1

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