Thursday, 31 July 2014

Artemis Goodwood Cup

No Group one's today folks but we do have a Group 2 we can look at which should also be a great race to watch.
The ARTEMIS CUP is a solid Group 2 racing over 2m and with a decent looking 9 Runners this promises to be a proper race with some real stayers in the field and a bit of class ta boot.
From the 9 we have 6 Distance Winners which includes a Course and Distance winner  and a CD winner so this should prove to be a battle royale.
Today's Favourite is ESTIMATE @ 3.1 and this is a beautiful stayer with a wonderful tank of an engine however i do feel that this 2m trip is the shortest test she needs and this is a trip she is most vulnerable at , yes she has multiple victories over this 2m trip but most were against much lesser opponents or against flat out non stayers so her attritional running on style was good enough , take her last win over 2m in the Sagaro stakes where she raced mainly against group 3 at best or handicappers and the 2nd , 3rd, 4th and 5th in that race were all hard at / pushed along or just plain ridden at the 1f pole whilst Estimate was just warming up and getting into gear and Won this by an easy 1 1/2L,  its easy beating beaten horses and with nothing able to quicken she had the race at her mercy but today she will find a few of these a completely different proposition and with some real quality in opposition i feel at the price she has to be taken on and laid or dutched/backed against.
So what have we got running for us today ?...Forgotten Voice i feel does stay as he has shown over the sticks however all his best flat form is over a lesser set of trips and i think 1m4-1m6 is probably his optimum so i will give this a miss today , Cavalryman who is rather enigmatic , a horse with undoubted class and ability but so frustrating , has won several times over this trip with the last couple being at Meydan , thrashed in this race last year by Brown Panther but did win the Esher Stakes the year before ( looking at races around this time of year as a parallel ) and i can make no firm judgement as regards his chances here today , can win , has the ability to win , has the class to win and has the back form to win but has shown on several occasions that he is just as likely to throw a strop or not compete if the mood takes him at 6.4 its not really enough to tempt me him but im sure Fallon will give him every chance...possibilities but not for me.
Angel Gabrial is a northern flat track bully with limited staying powers and experience and i simply cannot see this getting involved at the finish.
BRASS RING however is a very interesting sort indeed and could add to the Abdulla trophy cabinet which has seen two wins this week already in Snow Sky and Kingman and the Gosden/Doyle combo are looking at leading their respective fields , this big Rail Link Gelding is bred for staying and after some in out performances it was thrown into the foray that was the Queen Alexandra Stakes over 2m5f but this day he pulled like a train ( only 7 runs still so could be a bit green ) and the rider was forced to go with the leaders and let some rein out and from the 10f pole to 1f out he led and ran very well before weakening but running on to come 3rd this was a spirited performance of zest , zeal and guts but this trip of 2m is a complete unknown , yes he will def stay but can stay this and race and be able to quicken when required...just staying on is rarely enough to win and it wont be today imo...your guessing a bit but to make this almost the outsider at around 20/1 i think is a joke and i think this is a price that is worth a few shillings from anyone's wallet or purse as an EW bet to nothing.
Ahzeemah is another frustrating Godolphin runner , plenty of ability ( 2nd in this race last year ) but throws in too many shockers and its recent form is dire so offers nothing to enthuse about in any form , poor horse and a poor price.
Excellent Result has shown nothing thus far to suggest its a stayer in the making and is probably a pace maker , Whiplash Willie stayed on for 3rd lto running past beaten horses and gives little insight into his staying prowess however he was being hard ridden 1f out just to stay in touch so my guess is that he stays but only just and as i write this i see he has now been pulled out..so thats two non runners now.
So that just leaves us with BROWN PANTHER a horse i detested a couple of years back as it was a complete non trying dog but has since been rejuvenated and is starting to look a class act in the staying game and i do feel that this is truly the one they all have to beat and to say its 4.50...well i think thats a bloody good price for a CD winner and last years winner of this very race ( won it comfortably ) proven stayer on most ground types ( likes todays surface ) and can race at any pace and if he can race to the form of his May win in the Cantor Stakes then it will have to be a career best from one of the others to lower his colours as he won that day with consummate ease beating High Jinx by over 3L and Whiplash Willie by over 5L this will win if he runs true to form imo.

Bet Summary : Brown Panther WIN & Brass Ring EW @ 4.5 / 18.0 ( will be having some at BFSP as well ) the bet staking for this will be staggered (  ie : £100 Win on Brown Panther and £20 Win & £40 Place on Brass Ring , at the current 4.0 the place on Brass Ring i will break even on all bets BP fails and BR places ) i will just for shits n giggles also be having a " fun "and rather speculative RFC on the two which will pay handsomely if it comes in and the stakes in line with the example would be just £5 RFC ( £10 ) .
                                       RESULT : 1st CAVALRYMAN @ 7.92 ( A price i would have been interested in had i not already lodged my bets and stuck by my guns )   with Brown Panther a well beaten 3rd @ 4.50 ( EW money back ) and Azeemah in 2nd for a 'Dolphin 1-2..Estimate ( whom i also Laid for stake back ) was thrashed and never in it and Brass Ring was hung out the back , never put into the race  ( even with a slow early pace ) and didnt look good enough against the back class of the winner.       

Translate

Copy Halt