Saturday, 12 July 2014

Darley July Cup

Evening All ,
                    Oh we are spoilt are we not..2 Group 1's in the same week and back to back ;-)..yesterday was a good day with a nice winner so can we follow up....lets hope so or i may have to put the Steak on Hold and order some Scampi...;PP..

Todays fare sees us looking at the Darley July Cup a cracking Sprint and its an oddity in some ways as this is quite often not won by what one would term as a traditional sprinter and what i mean by that is that this is often one by a horse that has competed in Group races over a series of longer trips and been found out for stamina but has found a niche when dropped back into sprinting and there natural class has shone brightest of all , recent exponents of this trip dropping , class dropping malarkey are Dream Ahead ( Beaten by Frankel over 1m then went on to win the Darley July Cup < this race  > next time out ) , Mozart ( 2nd in the Irish Guineas before winning this ) and Stravinsky ( 4th in the Jersey before Winning this ) are just three of the top of my head so if you have a horse that is super classy but cant get a mile proper then take the Dayjur route..go sprinting....

One for me that fits the bill is NOOZHOH CANARIAS  a Spanish horse with a great deal of ability as he showed when 2nd over 6f to Karakontie in the Legadere and tbh nothing would have lived with the winner that day so that run stands out as exceptional then he led the whole field for almost 7f at a searing pace in the Guineas before just tiring at the death and getting swamped by Kingman , Night of Thunder and Australia and Kingman went on to win the St James Palace stakes and the Irish Guineas and Australia won the Derby and he Noozah was only beaten 4L in total making that a very high quality run and performance and i feel at the odds this is worth a chance....a definite dark horse and a spanner in the works for the favs but he wont have it easy...but i was hoping to get more than the current 6.60...#Frustrated

We also get to see two true stars of the sprinting game in the shape of stablemates Slade and Sole Power and its SLADE POWER that will be of the gravest concern as i dont feel SOLE POWER likes this trip on softish ground ..in fact he has been soundly beaten on many an attempt at this and is easily overlooked but Slade Power is a different kettle of fish , can race over 5 or 6f , can race on any ground type and probably any surface and likes to come off a fast pace..which she is guaranteed here and the 3.7 is just a wee bit low to whet my appetite but could easily win this if in the same mood as his last run where he wore down Aljamaheer..cant be totally overlooked.

DUE DILIGENCE is the main O'Brien hope and his lto run gives him every chance as he was snatched up 50 yards from the line when probably held by Slade Power but coming 2nd wasnt a bad run at all and with more luck in running then this can easily make the frame or possibly win although i think he will have to improve again or have his feared opponents fail to come out on top and the 8.2 is still short imo...it should be double figures...

ALJAMAHEER is a frustrating sort...not quite good enough to be a champion miler yet lacks the early pace and pick up to be a champion sprinter and this has been obvious in his last two races the Abernant and the Jubilee , 3rd in both over 6f but all his best work was at the end of the race when running on but readily held...he needs further or a drop in class to win because he just is not a champion sprinter...yes he can sprint but not like a good un...

Finally we have a Champion Sprinter Elect...HOT STREAK a very classy animal indeed and as fast as shit off a stick but he is still green as grass , this can race on or off the pace and has a very good engine and a good leg action that allows for a good cruising speed , can quicken of a fast pace and lengthen and has a heart for a battle...but i think he will be in his prime aged 4, 5 and 6 , still tactically unsure still hangs his head and likes a swish of the tail and a little unreliable ...however.....this is one serious horse im talking about...this could be Europes leading sprinter no doubt but ..i dont know...i have this nagging doubt he is upto it just yet...but 11/1 does interest me....cracking EW bet and probably as good as any bet on the day but the fact all three runs as a 3 yr old have been over the minimum is a little off putting but it is what it is..hey ho..

The rest are much of a muchness, some very capable sprinters all with the back ability to run well or even surprise but they will need every bit of luck to go there way , every favourite to fail or perform bad and then it will need something more...

My 1,2 & 3 are..

1. SLADE POWER
2. HOT STREAK
3. NOOZHOH CANARIAS

With Due Diligence and Aljamaheer running for places and annoyance....

PRO BET : Well i wanted minimum 10/1 on Noozah to get involved and i think the scintillating bit of work after racing the other day has got the bookies running cold , to back a horse on what it could do rather than on what is has done you need a few extra risk points and im not getting them so unless there is a marked drift i am leaving it...but if it drifts to say 12/1 is that a good thing now...bugger...Slade Power is the likely winner on the balance of form but at the tight odds is worth taking on and hoping his race doesnt quite plan out....so i will be dutching HOT STREAK and DUE DILIGENCE @ 11/1 & 8/1 ( or better ) this is a solid bet as both are top quality and both are improving and they will have to....EW or Trade ?...gonna see how the morning goes....If the Fav slips into a heavily backed position of around 2.5 < then i will also be laying its arse off , cant see it but ya never know..all the mugs will watch the morning line and lump on...

This may be subject to a slight change in the morning , if it does i will update...

RESULT :

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