Saturday, 5 July 2014

Coral Eclipse

Morning All ,
                    Well the rain has arrived but not enough to really bring a smile to the connections of Kingston Hill as the ground will still be on the firm side of good.
This is a fascinating race that has been won by a host of classic winning stars including the likes of Nashwan , See The Stars and So You Think and it does generally take a good one to win on a course which is regarded as being the stiffest 1m2f test in the country that comes with a nice uphill finish and the winner will have to truly stay the trip to be considered.

The FUGUE is the current fav at 3.70 which i feel is a tad generous given the opposition as i would be having this down at 6/4 if i could get the book to fit around it...You see there are two laws of bookmaking  the price it should be ( true price = expected chance of winning ) Versus its implied chance ( the odds you see advertised and bet on , Implied odds ) and this is one of those where the prices are the wrong way round for the bookmaker as they know they have a 6/4 shot trading at 5/2 or better and can do nothing about it as the book is unbalanced so what do they do..well invariably they will try and push the fav out further to gather momentum on other runners to bring the book back using the middle order as cover whilst this is a pain for the bookies it should be treated as Mana for Heaven for punters as this should be backed regardless...your getting 5/2 on a 6/4 shot....that is value if ever there was any.
From an review point can it win ? , absolutely , it has the trip , ground , form ( old n new ) and comes into this with all conditions in favour and with some questionable opposition i personally think it would be folly looking elsewhere although that wont stop a lot from trying their arm with a few roughies.

Mukhadram is a solid enough runner but isnt really a Group 1 horse and is very vulnerable against the best (*should be found some nice Group 3's to mop up ) , Tullius is a nice horse but is another that just isnt good enough , Trading Leather...well i hated it last year then it won a poor Irish Derby and has done nothing since and i think a complete turn around in both form and attitude would be required to see this even get competitive...not out of the question but highly unlikely , Verrazano is a doubtful stayer , Night of Thunder is very interesting as it looked a cooked on stayer in the making when it won the Guineas but the way it got trampled on by Kingman ( Europes leading 3 yr old )  lto after he had try to make all up the rail suggested to me it wouldnt in fact stay , well certainly not a fast finishing , whips out battle up the hill so im gonna say this is a grand beast but may be found found wanting for stamina today , both War Command and True Story come into this with reputations and expectations for this season currently in tatters as both have been hugely disappointing after so much was expected and until either show the sort of form that has been media mentioned then im afraid..toodle ooo and the remainder bar one are just padding for the field...

The bar one i mentioned and the last for me to cover is KINGSTON HILL 2nd in the Derby this year behind the utterly fantastic Australia ( good battle up the straight ) but well ahead of the field and this is a true stayer in every sense of the word , a grinder, a battler not a quickener but a horse that has a very good cruising speed and stays on and on ( ideal type for the St Leger imo ) but has appeared to be very ground dependent to see the best from him and its good to soft / soft what we want not this good to firm / firm and i have a feeling this will be enough to stop him from winning but he will place at the minimum.

It has to be said tho that this is easily the best field / turnout we have had for a few years now well probably since STS won it in 2009 and im hoping its going back up the pecking order of races as its a great test and a good chance for the 3 yr olds to mix it with the older brigade and opens the doors for all the classic winners to meet up.

SUMMARY : For me this is a race that lay between THE FUGUE and KINGSTON HILL and with KH having the concerns over the ground it looks likely The Fugue will come out on top and not forgetting from a punting point of view The Fugue has to be bet at the odds and at 3.7 & 5.7 respectively there is plenty of room for a dutch , bet with cover , bet savers and rfc's..personally i am just Backing the Fugue to win as its a stand out bet price wise.

RESULT : Very Poor 6th after a very poor ride on The Fugue by Buick...Idiotic.....all the stats told you that coming off the pace here is suicidal and coming round the final bend he was still 10L in arrears , yes he ran on but he was never going to reach Mukhadram that won but was dead on his feet crossing the line...very disappointing effort from Buick again....;(

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