Evening boys n girls ,
Well its a been a long week but another productive and profitable one thankfully and Thanks to HCE Jason Coote the Maestro of the Maiden
as his Pro Tip service smashed another winner ( 3.45 ) to pieces and yet again smashed the bookie with his spot on analysis well done pal and thank you ;-).Well now its back to business and this weekends business at hand is Cheltenham and the further foraging of clues re: the festival as some of the more fancied types try to secure their spot , enhance their reputation and/or get one last run as its only around 40 days away and time is of the essence for some and we have a good looking sort or two on show this Saturday to give us cause to wheeze or whine.
Firstly Yesterday whilst updating my Cheltenham tab i noticed a very good looking " special " on offer this was 8/1 for Peace n Co to Win on Saturday AND at Cheltenham which is odd as its a case of " Free Money " because Peace n Co is currently 1.61 tmrw and 3.50 for its Cheltenham main target so i can ( for example ) Back Peace n Co for £100 in the " Double " @ 8/1 and Lay Both races right now and i still make at least £100 profit regardless as the double only pays around 9/2 this seems rather crazy but is totally legit..so go to Oddschecker check the specials for Peace n Co n lump on i say..you simply cant lose....although some of these funds may be tied up for a couple of weeks.
As to the remainder of the card...well Cheltenham is always a rather interesting card open or not so lets crack on and see if we can smash it to pieces and if i have time i may curse a glance over Donny....
CHELTENHAM
RACE 1:
WIN - PEACE N CO ( NAP ) - 1st @ 1.48
EW - N/A
LONG - N/A
SUMMARY : Today we start off with a Juvenile Hurdle which usually gets my pockets very excited as they expect to be fed large wads of cash as this is my hot area , my specialty , my Niche a place i come to hoover up as much cash as i can so i can then afford to spunk it off elsewhere however this is a seriously tough race for me as a horse i have been told is " the Dogs Bollocks " PEACE N CO is running and i did smash it fto when it hosed up @ 10/11 and i have this in my " double Special " but do i lump the single as i personally think its a nailed on dyed in the wool certainty??!!??...Firstly my " Pro " head says no because it just hasnt done enough to justify its price which in all honesty ( 1.53 ) is right at the bottom end of where it should be ( Even money and i would have smashed in or even 4/5 ) however i gave it a provisional rating of 152 for its last run where it slammed 130 rated rivals by 19L and 32L respectively but this is a different race altogether as these rivals are far far superior in every way and for him to not only justify the " p " on its rating and its place at the Festival it will have to win this....in any way it can as this wont need to be flash he will just need to get in front , Bivouac is rated 147 but has beaten little and surely BG ( Jockey ) will know what is what blah blah so it must be safe to say that Hendo just wants an angle on Bivouac and where to send him after hes been mullered here , Karezak is rated 142 but has been found wanting against the best so one has to assume that even an improved run will not suffice as the Bristol De Mei form has been knocked about and Ibis Du Rheu is not ranked that high by IDK so i think that can be discounted although may be a decent long term sort.
Zarib is another nice looking type and has a stamina laden pedigree but only beat a 111 rated rival 10L last time seen and this form if taken as a direct line gives this around 24lb to find before it can even think of challenging for a place so is easily left aside and Storm Force Ten has no chance what so ever which means all roads lead back to Peace N Co with only Karezak as a live danger....if i can get 1.86 or higher i lump on if not i will leave it even though i feel it will win....either way its a win/win race for me.
RESULT / NOTES : Strange race as they went rather slow early on but he stalked , sprinted and then lengthened when asked...not a great race but he beat this lot very comfortably and is a 150p horse proper.
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RACE 2:
WIN - IRISH CAVALIER - 3rd @ 20.0
EW - NED STARK -
LONG - HORATIO HORNBLOWER -
SUMMARY : Race 2 is a tricky looking Handicap chase and its not one for punting in big time.
Its a £20k race with almost 2 stone separating top from bottom...sigh...fucking sigh....WHAT i will say is this...in the last 5 years NO Fav has even placed and each fav have performed really poor here so i will say that Stellar Notion is a Max LAY and wipe your chin if the stats are rebuked.
As for the winner well i like IRISH CAVALIER , NED STARK and HORATIO HORNBLOWER with a slight preference for the former as i feel that it needed its first couple of runs thus far and will be cherry ripe here and the pull in the weights with Black River will be sufficient to reverse that form but its a tough race and not one im very keen on.
RESULT / NOTES : Fav was AGAIN UNPLACED ;-))
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RACE 3:
WIN - SMAD PLACE - 2nd @ 3.94
EW - DYNASTE - 3rd >
LONG - MANY CLOUDS - 1st @ 5.72
SUMMARY : Next up is a £90k Chase and although its a small field it looks a cracker with many of these holding literal or lateral form lines.
Grands Cru , Time for Rupert , Rocky Creek and Punchestowns have all had their respective arses handed to them on a plate in recent years in what can only be described as a grave yard for favourites so it is with much trepidation that i nominate Dynaste as a LAY @ 3.25 , yes he is the Class act here by some way and easily imo has the best form on offer with a Win in the Ryanair and a 2nd to Silvi' Conti to count among his many great runs but he has to race over a trip less than ideal ( will stretch his stamina to its fullest ) on ground that will be plenty soft enough and against some very useful up n coming chasers , Many Clouds is one of these chasers on the up and confirmed his arrival on the group scene with a taking victory when winning the Hennessy however SMAD PLACE has a 12lb pull in the weights and must have every chance today of reversing that form and has to be backed even at a skinny looking 4.40 as it simply wont have a better chance to show its class , this has some exceptional losing hurdle form and some not too shabby Chase form which includes a good 2nd in the RSA last year this smart travelling smooth jumping type has a cracking chance today.Last years winner The Giant Bolster , Black Thunder and Theater Guide all add spectacle to a race that looks like being a fizzer.
RESULT / NOTES :
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RACE 4:
WIN - ANNACOTTY - ( HCE NAP ) - 1st @ 6.0
EW - QUINCY DES PICTONS
LONG - DARE ME -
SUMMARY : Next up its another Handicap Chase and agin its an impossible to be confident about field with so many having form chances or being weighted into it.
ANNACOTTY ( HCE NAP )must have a cracking chance to shine today having won on this card last year in the Novice event and is a Grade 1 winner without a penalty and has all conditions to suit and coming from a yard that knows how to ready one for a coup i would suspect that this £50k is " his Cheltenham " and he will be all out to take this down and the 7.4 looks a decent price.
Wallkon is thrown in on his best form and is due a win but " being due " is only relevant if your pregnant but im sure Richard Hurd will argue this after his winning loyalty bet on Officer in Command last night....Dare Me can run well after a lay off and Quincy des Pictons can pay his way but may have to lower his sights after getting lumped with a 13lb rise after a facile win lto.
RESULT / NOTES :
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RACE 5:
WIN - VALUE AT RISK - ( NB ) - 2nd @ 2.20
EW - ROBINSFIRTH -
LONG - VAGO COLLENGES - 3rd @ 9.93
SUMMARY : Time for some more graded action as we have a Group 2 Hurdle ( formerly known as the Classic Novices Hurdle ) and it looks a decent enough affair , VALUE AT RISK is a short price at 2.56 for he has achieved but he thrashed former winners by an eye watering 20L lto without coming off the bridle and this very smart bumper could be very special indeed and i will take this bet even though i think its poor value..its one of those in which i feel i have the implied value.
Elsewhere well you can shove a pin where ya like coz its all relative as they are all within a few lbs of each other....Value at Risk is the ONLY one that looks like a potential superstar.
RESULT / NOTES :
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RACE 6:
WIN - UN TEMPS POUR TOUT - 3rd
EW - SAPHIR DU RHEU - 1st @ 4.36
LONG - COLE HARDEN -
SUMMARY : The £60k CLEEVE HURDLE is next on the agenda as we look to further add to our coffers and we have to take a leap of faith in this because " IF " UN TEMPS POUR TOUT can stay this trip then he can hang them out with the washing as he annihilated Cole Harden previously and on lit/lat form lines the whole field have something to find and im thinking that he could have around 12lb in hand on racing form although the higher officially rated Saphir Du Rheu could prove troublesome now back over hurdles and last years enigmatic winner Reve Di Sivola who can win anytime he likes but rarely does with the other two having no chance i think this is another really likable bet @ 3.90.
RESULT / NOTES : Great Race n a cracking finish with the top 3 separated by just 1/2L.
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RACE 7:
WIN - KIAMA BAY - ( EW NAP ) -
EW - LIGHT ENTERTAINMENT - 1st @ 5.14
LONG - BEAU LAKE - Non Runner -
SUMMARY : Lightentertainment has been cleverly placed to win four of his last five. He was just beaten in the other and is worth a stab at this higher level but other recent winners Minstrels Gallery and Beau Lake have more on their plate today. KIAMA BAY has been a revelation this winter for Jim Best. He had the proverbial ton in hand when beating Minstrels Gallery on identical terms at Fakenham in October and would have skated up in a Listed race at Haydock the following month had he not fallen at the last. He was just outbattled by Aso in a Grade 2 back at Haydock last week but compensation awaits here. Dell' Arca may be the pick of the remainder as the going is likely to be too soft for Royal Irish Hussar and Diamond King and Landscape lack a recent run.
RESULT / NOTES :
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Have a Great Day ;-))....lets rattle the PP..
#Placepot Landed with 4 Lines...and not far away from the Jackpot with 4 winners n 2 2nds...lets see what it pays...
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