Monday, 26 January 2015

13:45 @ Ludlow

Morning Race Fans ,
                                Its a dull morning and there isn't much to whet ones appetite today however we did see a very impressive run from the Arkle Fav yesterday ( Read the Cheltenham Ante Post n Notes Tab ) which is making my Cheltenham Double look nailed on....

We have just the one race and one bet from me today and its as you would expect by now in the opening JUVENILE HURDLE at Ludlow , you should know by now that these are a specialty of mine and they are races i do like to punt on and this looks a pretty decent event in truth however i would be very shocked if the winner didn't come from the trio of Arabian Revolution , Sebastian Beach and Cape Caster.

1. CAPE CASTER : This was a decent performer on the level reaching a rating high of 87 and winning twice over middle distances this former Ralph Beckett inmate is bred for speed being by Cape Cross but had no trouble at all hacking up almost 5L from Eddiemaurice fto with the 3rd another 13L back, Led on the bit 2 out , hit the last and still pretty much cantered home only having to be gently pushed out to win this could be a very nice sort for a yard i am really starting to like in Evan Williams , with some good money already laid down at 4.0 the current 3.44 seems short enough but it is still the right side of being backable and this will be in the mix from the outset and will def place.

2.SEBASTIAN BEACH : This was also another consistent flat sort getting a rating of 84 and also had a couple of nice Flat wins over middle distances although did seem to prefer a firmer surface so im not to sure yet how really soft ground will be suited although it ran 2nd fto on softer going.
This was beaten a comfortable 9L fto by the decent Souriyan however he did have the Pipe inmate Skylander ( 13/8f ) a further 17L back in third making the form look solid enough and with the JJ yard now back in some form and starting to rattle in a few winners this has to be given every chance although being by Yeats it wouldn't be a surprise to find that this would be better with an extra 4f in front of him and is probably the weakest  ( for this race ) of the three.

3. ARABIAN REVOLUTION : This was also rated 87 on the flat in a short career that saw him destroy his field in his maiden before hurtling backwards so fast its a surprise he didnt actually go back in time...he declined so quick and was so awful after that fine run that i think this was his only option ....That said his opening run was excellent beating another Pipe inmate Rathealy ( 9/4f ) by 8L but in truth it could have been 28L as he was very hard held and was on the bit the whole way and never did anything more than an exercise canter...this was a very easy win and " if " he can build on that and not regress like he did on the flat i think this will be very hard to beat and could conceivably be a grade or two higher than most ( Cape Caster looks very good ) and must surely be in the mix but a bit of trust will be required that he is in the same frame of mind and mood to compete.

SUMMARY : The ONLY bet for me is a DUTCH on CAPE CASTER & ARABIAN REVOLUTION as both look different class and Sebastian probably needs further and with the current prices being 3.0 / 3.35 i think there is just enough juice in that to call it a very strong bet.

RESULT : BELTOR Wins @ 16/1 and a Loss for me ;-( , Arabian Revolution ran ok hit 1.33 as it led over the last however it got completely outstayed on the flat and was shown up for the unreliable type that it is may win more races but they will have to be easy pickings as this g4 at best , CAPE CASTER never settled, never travelled and it has to be said was a major disappointment ;(...never in racing mode and is worth another try but this was a very poor show , Bellator the winner was a former flat type trained by Sir Mark Prescott and is a useful sort in the making having showed a good attitude and picked up nicely off a decent enough pace.....theres always tmrw ;)



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