Friday, 30 January 2015

Saturday @ Sandown..

Afternoon All ,
                       Well the dentist trauma is over...or is it...? of the fillings is apparently sat right on the nerve end of a tooth and it may not take which means root canal and crown...and let me tell you...this fucker hurts and im already on my 4th packet of pain killers in less than 24 hours and they cant or wont do anything till fucking Monday....Jeez!!!....fucking toothache man it gives you so many other symptoms like earache, eye ache , nausea , dizziness...blah blah blah , this is completely cuntish ;-((....i just wanna curl up and sleep it off but i cant!!...

Regardless of all the shit...hows your week been?..mines been pretty fucking good let me tell you with a few nice touches and some decently struck bets....and im hoping we can carry this shit on thru to tmrw where we head to Sandown where we get to see some very nice types on show although in truth the 48 dec stage made the cards look a lot more impressive than the final show as we are again cursed with some small field shit.

But we will be given one or two further clues for Cheltenham as a couple of fancied festival runners are out and it may pay to get on the Ante Post market as a good win by any will see a price collapse!! without further ado lets Smash Sandown!!...>>>


WIN - OLD GUARD - 2nd @ 5.90
EW - PAIN AU CHOCOLAT - 1st @ 2.50
LONG - N/A -

SUMMARY : We start the day off with a very tasty Juvenile Hurdle...oh no wait a minute the Early dec field of 22 has been whittled down to a pathetic spineless cunts ffs...right ..start again..We start the day with a very poorly turned out Juvenile Hurdle where the newcomer is best left alone and Lil Rockefella has it all to do on a form line through Devilment , The Saint James is bred for much further and will probably make a better chaser and maybe even a better long term prospect than most here however todays race looks a straight match between Pain Au Chocolat and OLD GUARD and its the latter im gonna take once more.
Old Guard pulled like a train lto and virtually ruled himself out of the race before pulling up but his earlier victory over 142 rated Kazerak is easily the best form on offer and a repeat of that run sees him win and any misbehaving will see Pain Au Chocalt mop up as this isnt the most fluent of jumpers and is a weak stayer but over this trip on this ground he should have enough pace to fend the others off but at the likely odds i think a punt on Old Guard is the bet here.


EW - GARDE LE VICTOIRE - 1st @ 5.96
LONG - N/A -

SUMMARY : Next up is a £20k race with just three runners ( the 4th runner only wins if the other three all fall ) which is a massive disappointment....however the three remaining runners all look very smart prospects indeed and there is little to split them on form or ratings.
Garde Le Victoire is a very nice sort which can and has raced over a variety of distances and will love the ground but will struggle to give weight away to two very promising types the first of which is Jollyann who is unbeaten and relatively untried and this is by some way the best caliber of opponent he has faced so i think in all honesty this will go to leading Cheltenham fancy BRISTOL DE MAI who is a strong 2nd Fav for the Triumph and is also much vaunted within the yard and is another who comes here with the strongest form also behind Karezak and he was also entered in the first race on todays card so must fancy this a good bit more or were they worried by something ?...either way i think BDM will win this and may well win it a shade comfy.



SUMMARY : A nice looking field for both punters and bookies is up next as we entertain a Hcap Chase  over the minimum , a field that is reasonably well packed with many having a chance or even two this should be a good race to punt in and watch.
Arkaim has little chance at the weights and has it all to do so is readily dismissed, My Brother Sylvest only has one decent run after a break and in a tight field like this will probably be found wanting at the end a nice sort just not for today , French Opera is a nice horse although prone to errors and for me is about 10lb too high in the handicap still so is left alone till back in the low 140's.
I dont like Brick Red as he seems a bit of a dog and finds little at the business end of his races and Ulck Du Lin has some form to turn around today which i feel may well be beyond him.
Greywell Boy got stuffed under these conditions in a much easier race lto so is easily dismissed which leaves FESTIVE AFFAIR who is now running with the yard back on song and will be a much stronger rival today than when previously seen and im expecting a very bold show from this today but for me the Winner will be BALLGARVEY , this won fto this season beating Ulck Du Lin by a comfortable ( in the end ) 4L with a 140 rated rival a further 5L back in 3rd and given he would have needed that run i think a run to around 144-146 is well on the cards today and that puts him a few lb clear with most and well in with the remainder , a slick jumper, smooth traveler and gutsy battling heart make this a strong betting proposition and will most likely be my HCE Nap for today to see me over the winning line ( only 3 points clear ).


WIN - GITANE DU BERLAIS - 1st @ 6.02
EW - IRISH SAINT - 2nd @ 3.0

SUMMARY : This is probably the stand out race for today a Grade 1 Chase worth £40k but again only 5 runners compete but thankfully they are all pretty decent so it should provide a nice race to watch at least but is it any good as a betting proposition ??...Champagne West has a jumping technique that requires a lot of luck as its sketchy at best and wanton at worst and until he can improve his jumping will always remain one to avoid in this class as he simply wont get away with the mistakes he has been making however..with a clear round is a danger to all.
Splash of Ginge is a bit of an Enigma...not without a great amount of ability this can mix it with the best but does look to lack the class to be the best so i will say that if all conditions drop right and the race falls kindly then she can win..but on a pound for pound straight fight she simply cant and at the odds is best left alone.
Grumeti....Grumeti Grumeti Grumeti..what a cunt you one stage i thought this was going to be a mega star but has failed me so many times when the big occasion arises that i simply have no faith left in this beast and will always leave alone unless it gets left in a very weak small field race and this simply isnt that....shame but i have no just cant be trusted.
Irish Saint is another thats a bit of a bully and could end up having a fight with Grumeti all the way round and usually only beats Grade 2 and 3 types and nearly always fails when pitched in against classy sorts but this race is there for him to take down if he puts it all in and is the likeliest winner although that is said with little confidence.
GITANE DU BERLAIS has traveled over from Ireland and is in the care of master handler Willie Mullins  however he has a wank SR outside of Cheltenham and the festival and his chasers are the least effective of all so all the stats!?!...And another thing he has shown a tendency to jump left which will not help on this right handed course so could lose further ground...all the signs are bad yet this French sort has a ton of potential and could be very good indeed based on what he has shown to date....but is it worth a punt with so many negative factors ?...probably only at around the 6/1 mark in a field like this which i doubt you will get so then the answer will be a no...and we are back at the beginning again!!....


LONG - EL DANCER - 2nd @ 20.60

SUMMARY : A grade 3 Hurdle next with an absolute ton in weight splitting the field and i doubt very much if Mijaar actually stays this trip proper but JUNCTION FOURTEEN does and it could pay to strike with a yard coming into form at the right time , will need a clear round and will have to be a good racing position but has the ability to win a race like this if it all clicks into place.
Cadudoff and El Dancer are also worth looking at if its a dutch your after in a very tightly packed field.


WIN - LE REVE - 1st @ 6.71

SUMMARY : Ardkilly Witness finally got back to winning ways at Kempton three weeks ago but his jumping has to be a concern around here. It's a while since Cantlow showed any worthwhile form but that means he's dropped to a very fair mark and a resurgence may be imminent. LE REVE ran a very nice race behind The Young Master off this mark at Ascot last month having been pulled up in the Hennessy earlier. He likes it here so is just preferred to Hadrian's Approach, who looked as though he needed a blow-out at Cheltenham and ran accordingly. Bertie Boru was second to Unioniste here last time but is looking too high in the weights now and There's No Panic is better over further. Theatrical Star also stays longer trips and had a hard race from a lower mark in a Grade 3 at Warwick three weeks ago.

RESULT / NOTES : Placepot LANDED > 4Lines = £2 = 2 x What ever it pays and ive a feeling it could be pretty decent......???????? > £732.50 BoooooM = £1465.00 Happy Days.

EW - MONBEG THEATRE - 2nd @ 4.80

SUMMARY : Nicky Richards rarely ventures this far south so Ayr winner Sir Vinski is respected. She's Late, Amidon, Lewis and Aigle De La See have all been knocking on the door and should be thereabouts. The latter's trainer also runs Brigadier Miller but the grey took a backward step last time at Exeter. MONBEG THEATRE is a real staying type and may be ready for this step up in grade having ground out convincing victories at Southwell and Towcester in the autumn. He might just out-last After Eight Sivola, though Nick Williams' charge appreciated the step up in distance at Taunton last time and Lizzie Kelly has already been seen to good effect for the yard this winter. Grove Silver may be the pick of the remainder.




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