Friday, 16 January 2015

Saturday @ Ascot



Afternoon ( or whenever ) Folks n Fuckers ,
                                                                          Yes the poor weather has been arriving in dribs n drabs but thankfully the worst of it seems to have missed Ascot with only Haydock requiring a Morning Inspection so we should be fine in fact the ground is reportedly holding quite well and should be firm enough to allow the imperious Sprinter Sacre to make its well touted and long awaited return after pulling up lto with a slight heart murmur , this will not be a strong betting heat as like many we just want to see him return in one piece safe n sound and a nice long striding victory will be a bonus and i feel if back to full fitness and strength then this has at least 3 more solid seasons in front of him...time will tell and all we can do is fingers crossed.

Gotta say tho the air has a right ol bite to it today as im sat upstairs in my office ( windows is open as im smoking ) and the chill is strong with this Jedi......right i have no rant as such today but will just say Je Suis Charlie...i often take the piss out of the French but with the Paris massacre we should ALL stand strong as brothers , shoulder to shoulder and defeat the extremist murderers they are not soldiers fighting a war they are stone cold Murdering bastards  full stop killing innocents in such a cowardly fashion ..well there are no words to describe them they need lynching every single one of them , that is the extremists not all Muslims as not all are evil and hell bent on killing all the " infidels " but the extremists need taking out now.....if it was me i would go into the middle east give notice and assist the innocents and let the likes of isis have their lands....let it cool down for a few weeks to let them all go and congratulate themselves and i would then just carpet bomb the whole fucking territory and if any of the cunts survived then i would follow it up with a nuke..chow fuckers and adios!!....this is all fantasy of course as nothing like that will happen whilst there is money to be made as human life is nothing compared to the mighty dollar!!....

Well that is enough of that shizzle...lets crack on with the ASCOT CARD and lets see if we nail a few winners and make some money.

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                                                           ASCOT
RACE 1:
WIN - TOP NOTCH - 1st @ 1.32
EW - N/A
LONG - N/A

SUMMARY - We start the day off as i like with a Juvenile Hurdle but as has been the rant for weeks now its another very poor turn out with just the 4 runners but there is a modicum of interest in this as Golden Doyen lines up and after getting mauled by the very smart looking Bristol de Mai last time out  ( beaten 24L ) it will provide a much better guide to how good that is as Golden Doyen faces another very strong Cheltenham bound candidate in TOP NOTCH and its this i expect to canter home after not being allowed to run in today's big race due to past Victories in France this consolation prize will be absolutely hoovered up and i will be earthquake shocked if this loses...it is the nearest thing to a nailed on certainty this side of Frankel.

RESULT :

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RACE 2:
WIN - KINGS LAD - 1st @ 3.70
EW - VIVACCIO - 
LONG - N/A

SUMMARY - Next up its another small field for this Hcap Chase and this is a race that doesnt enthuse me at all , tight across along all lines and with race conditions met any of these can win which makes it a good race for both Stat Laying and PPL.
KINGS LAD looks the likeliest winner after a facile win lto and the shorter trip is not an issue an improving sort and a solid jumper he will be there all the way and the most likely to give his true running.
Vivaccio is looking to get his reputation restored after an uncharacteristic fall lto when going well and will give the selection the most to do as two of the remaining three have big lay offs to overcome and cant be followed in such a tight heat until they have shown their worth and Trafic Fluide is probably flattered by his last run and i find it doubtful he will be good enough to seriously trouble these.

RESULT :

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RACE 3:
WIN - CAROLES SPIRIT - 2nd @ 3.85
EW - JENNYS SURPRISE - 
LONG - FAIRYTALE THEATER -  

SUMMARY - A decent field size for a decent race finally!!..this is a Grade 2 Hurdle ( Registered as the Warfield Mares Race ) and there are some nice types out here today in an open looking event.
Dark Spirit is much improved this term and ran a sound race lto but has to prove she stays this longer trip after only running on lto and not staying on the same sentiments can be aimed at Mischievous Milly as this was just a tad behind in the same race but could run well if staying.
Bitofapuzzle is still a Bitofanenigma as this much touted and hyped sort has been getting reviews not worthy of her performance imo and still has a ton of improving to do and on official ratings she has to find at least 16lb and for me is best left alone and if she wins just shrug, say nice horse and move on....
Caroles Spirit only defeat last term was in this race when well held by Highland Retreat and as likely fav and a reasonably short price this is worth swerving even if i think its probably the winner.
Fairytale Theater is a flat track bully and will struggle to get into these like she does in Class 4's and is best left alone unless the ground suddenly turns into a bog.
JENNYS SURPRISE is one i like , yes it has to find a ton on official ratings but gets a non descript 5lb from the top rated and the assistance of Paddy Brennan in the saddle and lets not forget its unbeaten this term after being upped in trip and although a small field win lto was the ticket in she won that doing handstands with an official winning distance of eased down 3L this could easily have been 30L such was the dominance and i think this is good for at least 20lb or more in future Hcaps which puts her in with a squeak and possibly more as she is so unexposed she could improve massively and with a likely starting price of around 14/1 is well worth an EW punt.

RESULT :

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RACE 4:
WIN - GARDE LE VICTOIRE - 
EW - ABRACADABRA SIVOLA - 
LONG - WILLEM - 

SUMMARY - Next up is another nice looking Graded Hurdle race this time over 2m3f and this one has over 14lb difference in weight from top to bottom which brings them all into play.
This is a race full of " Potential Horses " with so many looking to build upon light experience and promise however Garde Le Victoire has done it all Haviing raced Bayan to within 7L in the Ladbroke with the likes of Shelford only smidges in front and a prior win in the Greatwood beating the likes of Vaniteaux and Pine Creek comfortably being the best form on offer by a country mile i think the top weight will not be an issue and its only the big weight being carried that is allowing you to get around 4/1 on a horse that on form alone should be no more than 6/4...the 4/1 is a bloody good price and rather generous imo however my money will be going EW on ABRACADABRA SIVOLA who arrived from France with a very tall reputation and IDK said this could be a future Champion only to do little more than fuck all on his first season although he did round the season off with a solid win when beating the excellent and 140+ rated Aurore D'Estruval quite convincingly and that puts the gelding right into the mix and although i would have preferred 10+ i will take some of the 8/1 and hope to get the remainder of my EW stake matched better on Betfair ( currently 10.0 ).

RESULT : Gar fucking bidge...;((..

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RACE 5:
WIN - SPRINTER SACRE - 2nd @ 1.77
EW - DODGING BULLETS - 1st @ 5.48
LONG - N/A

SUMMARY - The days big race the Sodex CLARENCE HOUSE a race won in recent years by the likes of  Sire de Grugy as this is a nice scalp to take down en route to Cheltenham with the winner getting over £70k.
ALL EYES will be on SPRINTER SACRE and for me if back to his best is simply the best horse anywhere in the world at around 2m-2m4f...but after a lack lustre lto run in which he was pulled up and found to have a heart defect a lot of trust must be held with the trainer if punting and for me personally i will say that i think it will win and win easy or completely fail and may even be pulled up if not travelling or looking like the winner so a win bet and place lay as cover is the option you have but i so so so want this to win and win easy...please be back ( the news is that he is 100% so fingers crossed ).
Both Somersby and Twinlight are very decent performers on their day however it should be Dodging Bullets that wins if anything is amiss with SS as he easily accounted for Somersby lto and pretty much always runs true to form.

RESULT :

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1stDodging BulletsP F Nicholls711-7 tN D Fehily7/2
Tracked leading pair, pushed along to challenge on outside in close 2nd 2 out, ridden to lead between last two, stayed on strongly run-in opened 3/1
2nd3Sprinter Sacre (FR)N J Henderson911-7B J Geraghty4/6f
Took keen hold very briefly, held up in 4th, headway on outside 8th, went 2nd 4 out, led 2 out, headed between last two, no impression when switched left before last, one pace run-in opened 5/6 £2000-£2000 £1000-£1000(x2) £500-£600(x3) £3200-£4000 £400-£600(x2)
3rd5Twinlight (FR)W P Mullins811-7R Walsh6/1
Chased leader until 4 out, well outpaced next, went well held 3rd run-in
4th7Somersby (IRE)M R Channon1111-7 pA P McCoy8/1
Mistakes, led and set decent pace, hit 2nd, mistake 7th, pushed along after 3 out, ridden and headed 2 out, chased leading pair, soon no impression, well held when blundered last, weakened into 4th run-in opened 9/1

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RACE 6:
WIN - NICEONEFRANKIE - 
EW - MISTER GREZ - 
LONG - KING EDMUND - 

SUMMARY - Numero Six and its a 12 runner Hcap Chase which is enough to get me running for the hills!!..and this looks a very strong race so only pocket change and speculation will be available on this.
I love Tom Cannon and Chris Gordon but King Edmund is getting on a bit now and he would really have to roll back the years to win this so regrettably is left out of this equation , NICEONEFRANKIE has now had two runs at Ascot over CD and has won them both and the 7lb  rise for an easy win at Cheltenham will not deter another dash for the line , loves the trip, ground and course and the stable are in decent fettle and i fancy a pillar to post Victory and i will make this my HCE and Blog NAP for the day.

RESULT :

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RACE 7:
WIN - OUT SAM ( Pro Bet )  - 1st @ 1.51
EW -  N/A
LONG - N/A 

SUMMARY - A Small field Novice Hurdle to round the day off but we have our " Pro Bet " in this and that is OUT SAM and this is a standout bet and will be doubled with Top Notch and smashed if that fails as this is an absolute certainty imvho...the three runners it beat fto have all Won since with the third that day Tea for Three recently turning the Lanzarote into a procession and now looks proper Grade 1 material and that form is just in a different league on a different planet to anything else on show and i will walk to USK naked if this loses ( bar a fall as that cant be factored in )....Smash This for all your worth.

RESULT :

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Enjoy the Snow #Ascot #Winning #Phoenixracing3 ;-)))

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