Monday Dutch

Hurricane Lady Wins ;-)

Lay of the Day

Tip Top Gorgeous 14-25 Redcar

Result = 2nd = Win = KERCHING!!

Sat Dutch nos 1

Tribal Myth Wins...;-)

Todays card from..

NEWMARKET ( HQ )...

Quite a nice card with some nice albeit tricky maidens, but i like HQ  , the natural home of Horse Racing..

14-20
A nice 1m 3yr only Hcap to start proceedings , sweet , where a case can in some shape or form be made for pretty much the whole field!!!.
Now as you know by now i do like stats and times, i think times are very important , yes i know that some courses run faster / slower than others , yes i know difet surfaces make a difference  and in some case the trip is shorter / longer than advertised , but behind the scenes i generally do all this groundwork , but the core fact is a horse can run consistently  to within 1.5 secs every time then it gets an average , then if that is say 2 secs quicker than another horse has ever run  it would take a lazerous type of run to turn it around , therefore in my book fast is fastest.
But as always i look into Value as that also plays a big part of my evaluations and summaries , so many factors ( if your american , thats , FAK - TORS ) .... Moving on anyway  ( starting to ramble now )...
Now having watched the relevant races and judged the sectionals i have come to a very odd conclusion , in a field as tight as this i am plumping for a EW WIN bet on CLOUD ILLUSIONS @ 22/1 ( 5.3 place ) , a cracking price , this horse over C @ D has run the mile a whole 3 seconds quicker than any other horse , now if this was trained by say Hannon , Cumani , Varian Etc...it wolonly be around 7/2 - 11/2 ( at best ) is fit , loves the ground , trip and has the very tidy Eddie Ahern aboard , this for me represents a MAX Place bet , and nice win bet i think 30/70 % should suffice i really cannot see this being unplaced.
The LAY in this race for me is EKTIBAAS , a tad slow and with the unreliable R Hills aboard also represents a fair bit of PLACE LAY value.

RESULT- Ektibass 3rd ( lay bet wins ) , Cloud Illusions 5th ( EW bet Lost )
Summary - Falsely run race , cloud illusions was travelling superb and entering final furlong held every chance, but race turnt into a final furlong Sprint and he just couldnt pick up , however this is one worth following, if rntered into any GP 3's..lump on.


14-50
A small field Stakes Race now , again ANY could win , hence any selection here will be speculative at best.
In a race of this nature i will side with the proven trip/ground horses and the fastest of these is CAI SHEN 6/1 , it is tight and nothing is g'teed however this looks to have an outstanding chance here.
My LAY in this race will be the FAV NAQSHABBAN @ 2.44 , in a field as tight as this with a horse not gteed to like the trip its a gimme of a lay and a horse like this i would gladly lay all day and night.

RESULT - Cai Shen ( 4th ) , very odd race , small field split up with runners all over , hit 2.24 in running so traded well , but just got run out of it in the end..very odd....NAQSHABBAN was stone LAST.


15-25
Tight Hcap Sprint now , these type of races with these quality sprinters are a punters nightmare ( backers and layers ) , because due to the nature of these races invariably if this race was run ten times you could quite easily have ten different winners.
The Speed Ratings system have this between , Majestic Myles , Desert Law and L'ami Louis..My slight preference is for the latter as MM has run poorly since it last blitzed a field and DL hasn't run for nearly a year.
my LAY in this race is LEXIS HERO.

RESULT - 1st Majestic Myles 17.5 , 2nd Desert Law 5.1 and 3rd L'ami Louis 4.3 ( MY speed rating system picks up the first 3 , wd me ;-) )....The LAY of the race LEXI;S HERO was obv UNPLACED.

16-00
A shitty small field hcap now that has been decimated by the withdrawals , for me in this race i think the safest bet is a WIN bet in the PLACE market on HUYGENS , its fit and ready to race ( fav isnt and is dropping back in trip for its hcap debut ) and ran a tidy race fto.
The LAY in the race for me is def SHAVANSKY , how the fuck this is 2nd fav is beyond me??!!.

RESULT - 1st - HUYGENS 6.2 ( Place bet wins ) , Shavansky was 3rd  4.3fav ( LAY bet wins )

16-30
The first of a couple of tight maidens where you need to examine not just the horse / trainer combo but also what the connections expect re: future marks and entries ,RIO GRANDE @ 3.4 is a MAX LAY , a short priced Noseda runner in a maiden......come the fuck on , lay lay lay!!!!!
If you really must have a Back Bet in this race my advice is to PLACE DUTCH BACK the two zarooni horses PACIFIC ISLANDS and GENIUS STEP ).

RESULT - RIO GRANDE - UNPLACED and GENIUS STEP 3rd  2.38 ( WIN / WIN )

17-10
The second Maiden and a far less competitive affair , i would suggest the LAY here is MUSNAD with the inept M Hills onboard and the BACK ( EW ) bet is a W/P 20/80 % on DRESDEN.


RESULT = MUSNAD ( UNPLACED ) but Dresden ran like a complete dog avoid at all costs. 

17-45
A super tough end to the card with a marathon 1m6f race to deal with.
I am Laying Veiled , if i do decide to have a win bet it will be on OLD HUNDRED win and place ( ew ).
Result- VEILED WINS!! @ 9/2 to ruin an otherwise great day ,  ( tbh as it hit 12's in running i did trade my position )..but still lost a little there..but gr8 day, other cards were all profitable, so all round ;-)

Good Luck, enjoy your weekend....;-)))
___________________________________

Some Great Racing today..

Just doing my cards , any preference for which one i post??..

One horse to Lay...

This evening ,

Pontefract 19:30 

Youngsters Conditions Stakes

LAY -  Betty Fontaine (IRE) 2 secs slower over the sections than the fav , ran a slower time over a shorter trip and still has the 2nd  to follow , MAX LAY in the win market and is worth a look at laying in the Place market.

Result = UNPLACED @ 7/1

First Dutch for today...

MY EMAIL ...

has been posted in the comments box ;-)

3k dutch ;-)

This is NAILED ON imo!!...Gothic Wins..

then this one...

Two horse Race Green up..

If you have the funds then this is FREE MONEY...
i can gtee 100% it will hit 1.14 in running for an easy profit..

Will the Fav hit 1.4???

actually now it only needs 1.34... ( HIT 1.50 !! )

NEED 1.89 ON THIS NEXT ONE..

Filun wins...MAX PAYOUT ;-)

if...

I am too busy and dont get round to posting midweek dont worry i am only an email away, if you want any totally free advice on any race just ask....if not save your cash till there is some decent racing on ;-)

Only bet of the Day

14-45 Leic

Back Verbeek in the Place market only at 2.0 ( as posted on timeform radio by myself )


Result = 2nd = Win

The day of Reckoning...

For the Belgrade Bullet , The Magyar Mare , OVERDOSE , thought of as being the fastest horse on the planet at 5f / 6f....
This imo is a fallacy , an untruth , a lot of hype , yet its crept in as 2/1 Fav for the big sprint today....we'll see , imo nah i would happily lay this all day long.

Today i dont have the time nor the inclination to give a thorough read of the cards or a card ( busy and running late  ) , but i will give my ideas on some and bet analysis on most...

HAYDOCK.
14-00
LAY - REFLECT
EW - GREYFRIARS DRUMMER

14-30
LAY- SAGRAMOR
EW - MARIACHI MAN

15-00
A very competitive TEMPLE STAKES ( 5f ) and the fastest two in this race ( by some way ) are Borderslescott and KINGSGATE NATIVE , the Hungarian horse Overdose has it all to do in this field and is worth taking on.
LAY -  OVERDOSE
EW -  KINGSGATE NATIVE

15-30
LAY - GOLDEN DYNASTY
EW -   RUSSIAN SPIRIT

16-05
LAY - HAADEETH
EW -  TASMEEM

16-40
LAY - MY GATSO
EW -  DECENT FELLA

17-15
LAY - FIBS AND FLANNEL
EW -  CONO ZUR

_____________________________________________________

YORK
14-05
LAY - JUST LILLE
EW  - SCRIPTWRITER

14-35
LAY - PALACE MOON
EW -  CHACAIMADA

15-10
LAY - THEOLOGY
EW -  TIMES UP

15-40
LAY - JOHAANES
EW -   ANCIENT CROSS

16-15
LAY - ONE COOL DUDE
EW -  APOSTLE* ( NAP )

16-50
LAY - ICEBLAST
EW -  COMMON TOUCH

17-25
LAY - TRANS SONIC
EW -   JEER

_________________________________________________

Thats enough for today , enjoy ,and win win win ( hopefully )....
_________________________________________________

Back to some...

Decent Racing finally after a very average midweek ensemble , today for you i will be doing a card for HAYDOCK ( if anyone wants a different card or a breakdown of a specific race, then just ask )  , and the good news is that finally after a tough ol 3 weeks im finally back in full profit again!!!.,...been a slog and a grind ( miss me monster bets ), but after slowly chipping away i made it , now , as we know , the key is to stay there!!...so will be mainly chipping for next few weeks to build up a decent battle fund ( that said im also saving for a new car , my month in spain , new bathroom....) , then there are my lads driving lessons and he will want a car  ( eventually ) ...the list just never seems to stop , as soon as youve bought something or completed summit from the list summit else comes along to replace it.....thats life i guess.....i do think that in all honesty it will be sept before i can up my staking to a point where i can get back to realistically make £200 + a day scalping / laying...so i will just have to be patient...
Anyway on to Haydock...

Friday May 20 2011

Haydock Park

14:30

 A competitive hcap to start us off today , 1m2f+ with a field full of potential , some nice 2yr old form knocking about but not a great deal in the way of 3 yr old form.

Man of God won nicely over a mile at 2 and is having its first run this term , but @ 2.98 is plenty short enough and i cant back at that price however i cant lay either i would need 2.5 to lay or 3.35 to back so for know that is looked over .

I do like STANDOUT as an EW bet , its last 3 runs , lets look at them..

1.last time out over 1m4f..too far , didnt stay got stuffed....@ 9/2f

2.2nd beaten a nose over 7f..running on

3.2nd beaten a neck over 7f ...running on.....

This horse is primed for this, fit, will get this trip readily and both hannon/hughes in form and @ 16.5 represents some great value for EW backers.

Grumeti is a strange un , i do feel that all tho it does ( just ) get this trip that if there is a battle for the lead in the final furlong that it will get out battled, there may well be some value in having this as a BTL , take 4.7 - 5.2 ( fair price ) then look to tra out in steps  , i would suggest 3.7 1/2 stake then 2.5  and 1.5...

Analysis: No outstanding lay here and i just cant bring myself to back Man of God at its current price so i will be making all my plays on the in-running markets.
-Result = Standout ( 2nd ) , Grumeti ( 1st )

15:00 

A nice maiden to get into here and we have an odds on fav , my ideology is to always always back odds on shots in maidens as you will always come out ahead in the long run , and i really dont like the jockey M Harley ( 3 ) very weak in a finish imo , so all that said i will be LAYING,  REPRESENT   ( 1.79 ) there are plenty of alternatives in this race and at false prices imo , if i was looking at EW alternatives i would be looking at VASSARIA ( 3rd ) or SWITCHER ( 1st ) ....but they are only tentative selections against the Fav.

i would rather have evens the field against 4/6 the fav any day!!...if it wins the damage is small ;-).

Analysis: Lay the Fap Fav.
Result = Fav ( unplaced )

15:30 

A classified stakes race , which for me is a posh Hcap!!..

Imo only a few have any realistic chance of winning and the most likely winner should be REGAL APPROVAL, who is dropped markedly in grade and won at Epsom on the last occasion he competed at this level. Hughie Morrison's charge gets the vote.

That said i also like the look of Squires gate @ 14.5 and the Place LAY of NO POPPY ( 2.32 )

Analysis: The BET is the PLACE LAY of NO POPPY ( 2.32 ) and a in running win lay set at 4.5 ( wont win ) and Squires Gate BACK in the PLACE market @ 3.75.

Result = No Poppy = UNPLACED

16:00

 H'cap time again and a tight one at that , that said the FAV SERGEANT TROY simply has to be taken on @ 7/4 ( 2.88 ) , yes it won readily last time out , but it was in a crappy class 5 , against so opposition , and in a field with so much potential and obvious improver's i feel this def the value call.

TBH i have no idea where the winner will come from as they have questions to answer and have it all to show, so the lay of the fav is the bet for me.

Analysis: Lay the Fav.
Result = Fav 3rd

16:30

A very open maiden ( div 1 ) to contend with now with the horses that have previous have shown nothing to suggest they particularly good , so we'll look at horses from the bigger yards with better ( apparently ) breeding , the first up is MOMARIS ( R Varian )  who is by Dubai Destination and a half-brother to Sajjhaa, a Group 3 winner over this trip. He may just be a little further forward than some of the others.

 Varian's horses are usually quite forward and hes doing good in his first season , but there are ( as far as im concerned ) 3 others with equally solid claims..

1. Antarctic ( Gosden )

2. Daruband ( Zarooni )

3.Opera Box ( tregoning )

For me i think the least likely to get involved will be Opera Box ( place lay ) and i think Antarctic will be worth laying in running as 5.0 is too high in the risk / reward ratio structure so will look for 3.5 and happy to lay or leave and i cant have the Zarooni colt Daruband as Ajtebi rides and , well , hes a cunt!!

The Fahey Horse may well run a decent race but it will be a newcomer that wins this , which one? , for me MOMARIS.

 Analysis: Lay Antarctic in running and a BTL on Momaris.
Result = Momaris = 2nd ( BTL )  , Antarctic ( 1st )

17:00

Div 2 of the above Maiden and one where we have another odds on Fav in a maiden , R Varian's once raced MIIJHAR  8/13 ( 1.78 ) has to be layed  as is always the case in these races.

With at least 6 horses to give him a race this is a max lay for me.

Analysis: Lay the FAV.( i will be setting a trade off at 2.5 )
Result = Fav 1st ( hit 2.92 in running )

and finally at 17-30 its an apprentice race to end the day , the least said the better , if you really have too..Back the Fav...thats it.

( kettle on time for me tho tbh )...FAV WINS...

Enjoy and Good Luck.

Just ...

Doing My Card for today at HAYDOCK...it will be up in about an hour or so....

Nothing today...

May update for this evening but unlikely , nowt really worth blogging at mo , life is good , all chilled and just chipping away nicely...

EW bet for today..

Perfect Point, a half-brother to smart performer Pinpoint, made a winning start to life in handicaps last month, in the process leaving the impression he's well ahead of his mark and, with tonight's extra distance sure to suit, he'll prove nigh-on impossible to beat at an attractive price of 4.6. The only slight concern would be the form of the yard, who aren't quite firing at present, but Walter Swinburn did have a couple reach the frame over the weekend and that's enough for us to pile into what is undoubtedly the best bet of the day.


also..
BRIGHTON 15-20

Swiss Cross improved when winning a six-furlong Kempton handicap in October and his recent third from a wide draw in a hot seven-furlong handicap at Chester was at least as good. This looks quite a bit easier.

Aye Aye Digby won twice for Henry Candy in 2009, but showed his form only once for Jim Boyle last year. He made an encouraging start returning for this stable at Lingfield last time and there's no doubt that he's on a good mark.

Ghostwing was visored for the first time when winning a warm six-furlong handicap at Chepstow a year ago, but has put in largely moody displays with or without headgear since. His recent run at Ascot was a step in the right direction, but he does most of his racing at six furlongs.

Caprio is a quirky sort whose last five wins have all come in claimers, the latest on the all-weather in January. Both his efforts last month were poor and he's easy enough to oppose back in a handicap on turf.

Beaver Patrol is not the force of old, hence he needed a career-low mark to end a losing run over course and distance in September. He was unable to build on his recent return at Ffos Las earlier in the month (both over a mile) but this trip probably suits him best nowadays.

Buxton readily quickened clear when gaining his third course and distance success last month. He has to put aside a lesser effort at Lingfield last time, but course form always counts for plenty here.

Magical Speedfit isn't one to rely on, but he is a four-time course winner. He was slightly unlucky when runner-up over six furlongs here a week ago so much depends on whether he's as effective at this trip

My idea of the winner is Swiss Cross

CBFA

TODAY...SEE YA TMRW..

Sat and its Lockinge Day....

Morning all , Feeling better now my blogger is back up after being off the whole day yesterday!!...tbh i only had a so so day at York yesterday with the best bit of advice given was to back Thyskens Theory ( 1st @ 3.25 ) but    i did also state that i didnt think Duncan would stay ( even tho come race time i actually backed it and traded for a green in running )...so you dint miss much.
Todays main card is at Newbury which is holding the Lockinge Stakes and sees Dick Turpin and Canford Cliffs lock horns..Great race ensues....outside of that it looks  bloody tough card!!...( if anyone wants a specific race highlighting then ask )..
I may well look at some other races / meetings in brief detail if i have enough time...

Newbury 13:25
An awkward little maiden to start the day off but for me a simple betting premise , we have a 1.83 fav in a maiden..INSTA LAY!...always always lay odds on and short priced favs in maidens...it is always always the value call..
Yes the Fap may well win , yes you may lose a few quid , but doing this bet alone over a season would produce a very healthy return.
LAY FIORENTE....1st @ 1.8


Newbury 14:00 
A kinda almost semi stayers race next over 1m5f..odd distance , ive known some great 1m4f horses not get this and ive known 7f horses that have improved over it so yes a bit odd indeed.
The obvious place to start here is with AKMAL...could very well lead from the front, dictate the pace and then burn them off , however hes not the most reliable sort and i just dont have enough faith in him to back him.
There is no obvious class act in the field and all the runners are ronseal...i think the best value LAY is drunken sailor but it must be stressed that even i wouldnt go over board on this one ( sic ) lol...
- Result = DRUNKEN SAILOR 1ST.....Easy..Doof!!
Newbury 14:35 
A ridic tough sprint h'cap and one in which as much i try i really cant enthuse about . i have no real view on this race , No lays....if i was desperate to back something here then it would be addictive dream ew...but i'm not...Addictive Dream = 4th ( paying top 4 )


15:10
The London GOLD CUP , quite a decent albeit small turnout here.
Dominant does have some nice form and was very unlucky not to win lto, however in a small field race like this where in all honesty any one of the first five in the betting could win i would rather take evens the field and lay dominant @ 2.7 that for me is the value call , as you may have guessed with me its not always about knowing or thinking which horse really will win for me its about maximum value....and this is a solid value LAY.
On the back side....I think FULGAR is a good value punt @ 7.2+ worth a few sheckles ;-).
Dominant was DOMINATED And FULGAR was 3rd @ 8.2

Newbury 15:45 

JLT Lockinge Stakes (Group 1) (Str)

A cracking and fascinating renewal of this great 1m race where all eyes will be on CANFORD CLIFFS and DICK TURPIN.

SPEED RATINGS

_____________________________________

Canford Cliffs

1m 37.44s

1m 39.55s ( infront of Dick Turpin )

1m 37.64s

1m 36.35s ( 3rd behind Dick turpin and Makfi )

CityScape

1m 39.84s

 1m 39.44s

1m 44.02s

Dick Turpin

1m 41.92s

Twice Over

1m 40.s ( Lockinge 2009 )

1m 38.7s ( 2008 )

1m 38.54s

Shakespearean

1m 38.92s

Red Jazz

1m 39.76s (  Behind RPW in QE11 Stakes )

Premier Loco

1m 40.43s ( gp 2 )

 1m 36.58s

 1m 38.54s

1m 37.39s ( 2008 )

So as you can see from the above , Canford Cliffs is easily the most reliable yardstick and quickest , Premier Loco has some very interesting form but has failed quite often at the highest level but at 46.0 could prove very interesting as an EW bet. = 3rd
Canford Cliffs is Currently 1.88 and first time out i just think its too short , if i could have got 2.5+ i would have lumped on big style but odds on fto..not for me ( even if i do think its the best horse and will prolly win !! ).
IMVHO i think the PLACE ONLY bet on TWICE OVER @ 2.42 is a better bet than the 1.8 on CC to win plus i think the LAY on Dick Turpin @ 4.2 is a bunce...get stuck in.
Twice over is patently not a 1m horse = Unplaced , CANFORD CLIFFS 1ST = EASY..Dick Turpin = Last ( HATED THE GROUND )


16:20
A nice little fillies H'cap now...( you'll need the breather )..A field of 3 yr old improvers...Someone get me a needle and a haystack plz..there is a game i want to play!!
BIARAAFA EW is only a very very speculative selection in a race i wont be getting involved in.
= 3rd @ 9.2
16:55 
O Fucking great..a 20 runner maiden next..oh fucking joy!!....QUADRANT @ 3.75 MUST BE LAYED!!..it may win , although it has shown nothing to suggest it really can , a moderate 4th fto..big deal...This is a 20 runner race full of  " could be anythings "..lay the jolly!.
 = 1st @ 2.92 ( just )
17:30

Div 2 of the above maiden now..not as big and with an odds on Fap..@ 1.76 im LAYING this fav even if it is related to the great MIDDAY!!!...bah hum , bollocks tits and fanny...i will NEVER back odds on in a maiden..if you have and it wins..your still a mug!!

NON-RUNNER

______________________________________

Was gonna do a Card for Newmarket but run out of time....GL and have a very pleasant day ;-)


Overall , not a bad day, come out ahead ( which is the main thing ) could have been better..but still ok.

WTF??

Where the Fuck has my AWESOME thurs posts gone????!!! , fucking blogger down all day and returns with missing posts?....Fucking bullshit ya set of cunts.....!!
Thanks for fuck all!.

Back on Sat...

Thursday at York...

And that means WORLD DOMINATION DAY!!!,
Gonna have another brief run thru the card and see where that takes us....

*****************YORK**********************
York 13:30 
A super tight Hcap to start the day off....the thing with these races is , that if all the same horses lined up and raced the same race every day for a week you would probably find a different result every day , the trick is nailing a horse with the perfect draw, winning form , likes the ground and has some current form ..and then just hope it gets a clear run and then cross your fingers...so you see , its easy ;-) .
There is no class in this race , they are what they are, all exposed h'cappers , Last Years Winner JOHANNES runs again today and @ 5.8f is the LAY of the race , but not a MAX , as although it did not win again last year it ran well enough fto this year to say " look im holding my form " and will be well primed for this , however with no tangible recent form and in a large field for me this is the bet.
If i was having a back bet ( which im not ) ....i would probably have an EW @ 17's on ANCIENT CROSS , as i feel today Gibbons will try and run there legs off , running well over further ( 7f last time ) and coming from off the pace ( not good at york ) today he will try and blast out for a make all ( proven stamina )...worth a dabble at 17.0.
- Result = ANCIENT CROSS 1ST @ 10/1 , JOHANNES = UNPLACED
**Did actually have a nibble at 17's...but only a small fun bet...Grr..should have lumped on lol...

York 14:00 
Hmmm...this is a very nice renewal with MIDDAY running and i just cannot see anything to beat her , if shes fit , if she runs upto her own level of form...she wins...
The last time she had a break of more than 60 days she came out and won the Nassau Stakes so she can win fresh ( previously 2/3/2 ).
For me its a MAX BET @ 2.34 i think thats a nice price as without the break ( ie: only run a few weeks ago ) on her level of form i would probably make her 1/2 ( 1.5 ) , so im happy with the price.
The LAY in the Race has to be TIMEPIECE , not quite good enough at this level , a nice horse indeed but not an out and out group horse, so @ 6.6 this does represent a solid Lay , Not a max but i would be looking to cover my win stake + 20%.
That said if Midday fails what will win? , open affair , i would probably have a PLACE ONLY bet @ 3.5 on NOURIYA.
- MIDDAY 1ST @ 11/10 Wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii ;-))))

York 14:30
 THE DANTE!!....A small but very select Field , Technically its a 4 runner race as the two outsiders have absolutely no chance what so fucking ever....
So lets look at them...
Carlton House (USA) A Horse with massive potential , won an 18 runner maiden by 9 lengths ( beat todays rival YASEER ) , owned by the queen awith ryan moore in the plate could easily enough win, however today there are two other horse with proven form who im going for and so today i am swerving carlton house.

Seville (GER) Horses from the o'brien stable always merit attention on the big occasions and this beast is the same , however i have a niggling doubt about this getting the trip at pace as it was hard pushed last             time over less and against a lot weaker opposition  , for me this is the LAY in the race and @ 2.7 i feel that is a great price to lay at.

World Domination You may have noticed i have this in bold ;-) , i love this horse and after watching it destroy its field first time out i so so want this to win.
It led on the bit after 1m1f ( was 1m3f ) and won with the greatest of ease , it gets every bit of this trip ( and will get a lot further ) and imo you wont get many opps to BACK this at 3.8..so im lumping on MAX BET


Yaseer (IRE) The last of the quintet ( that matter ) , i really cant see this troubling the other 3.

You could always dutch the top 3 for a gteed return of 10% on youir stake...better than the bank...and trust me this is nailed on!.

Result = 1st Carlton House @ 11/4

So Lost my Max bet but Won on my Lay ( also won on the Dutch bet ) so did ok , but WD was very disappointing, pulled far too hard and ran imo very green...will still come on , CH was a nice winner and is a very useful horse , but still pulled a bit ... interesting....

York 15:00 

Another typically tough york Hcap.....sigh , these are brain busters , Last years winner Fareer goes again , but wont be winning , that said im not going to entertain laying him at 23.0 tho either..The likely Fav PINTURA has a great chance and as such is perfectly primed for this race but at 5.9 is too short to be backing and is too high a risk to lay....

The thing is for me here ST MORITZ won its last race over 1m in 1m37sec , the race was won last year in 1m36secs...so that is race winning form , the fav Pinturra won its last race over 1m in 1m49s and although the ground was sticky....still 12 secs is a long time in a race and at 9.2 , im lumping on W/P ( 40/60% ), It has everything going for it today.

- ST MORITZ 1ST @ 15/2 = Major Wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii's ;-))

York 15:35 

A tough little conditions race for 3 year olds , but a race with interest nonetheless , The odds on ( 1.85 ) fav NIGHT CARNATION ran and won over a flat 5f in 1m 007s , not a bad time, very respectable , however LORD AVON who has won over the minimum 5f on the polytrack and turf 4 times  , in the following times,

1. 1m.034s

2.1m.041s

3.1m.044s

4.1m.006s ( last time out )

Its last timed run was quicker than the favs , this horse likes to front run or be with the pace and to top it off , LORD AVON is a ridic 50.0 on betfair ( 33/1 tissue )...that is insane!!!.

So although Night Carnation may well win ilike the win / place bet on Lord Avon.

Alternatively you could dutch these 3 for a free £1000 payday on lord avon...

Result = Night Carnation 1st @ 4/6f

A few things to take from the race is firstly the Dutch won again , secondly Lord Avon went to 25's in running ( easy trade , 25 point mark up ) and Night Carnation went from 1.6 > 3.55 in running..so easy trade off there.

York 16:10 

Penultimate race for today and its a good ol' fashioned Yorkshire Maiden...Noor Zabeel was given an absolute arseholing first time out and @ 4.2 im quite happy to lay this , Again not a Max Lay , just a work a day trade lay.

If i was backing in this race i would probably be looking at the northern trainers and that said , EW on HADRIANS RULE @ 8.6 looks good.

- Noor Zabeel 1st @ 9/2

** Again i did state that this was another work a day Lay to trade....and my goodness did i , it hit 20's in running for quite a lot and what ever price you want downwards...easy trade**.

York 16:45

No getting out stakes race here im afraid , if your down at this point thats probably how its going to stay, with the final race of the day being a tough hcap..

A speculative last race punt on DESCARO @ 8.8 is the one for me , stays extreme distances , has de sousa onboard and is in form....that ticks all the boxes for a race of this nature..

-Descaro 4th ( paid top 4 ) so a bit of profit from the last...

Have a good day ;-).

All in all another quality day..very very happy ;-)