Oh Lillie Langrty....you lush ;P... ( Day 3 Goodwood )...

                                                           

Well i must say Weds was a much better day both for me and the Blog as my one mega bet cleaned up and at very good odds and as i thought Toranado gained compensation by beating strong travelling Dawn Approach in a somewhat cheeky fashion and the win at worst can be described as cosy and we countered that with hitting the last 3 winners to make it 4 on the day with 3 seconds in the others and tbh the races we didnt win we had excuses or hard luck stories to tell, L Miller in the first ran well but just got outstayed by uber improver Broxbourne then in the 2nd race Excess Knowledge got a pig of a ride to come 2nd in the end but really should have won that and was the best horse in the race in the 4th Outstrip looked every bit the winner when streaking 4L clear inside the furlong only to get done on the line by the very impressive Toormore ( Hannon / Hughes ) so i think myself a tad unlucky in that ( even tho Parbold which ran on for 3rd was very disappointing ) but ultimately it was a very good day and a profitable one, i didnt quite match in winnings the losses from yesterday ( TUES ) but i am certainly in far better shape than before the day begun.

I have been a lot more restrained today and a lot more my old professional self and happier with it , now we into Day 3 and we have the usual scenario, first 4 races all quality and the last 3 are magic pin specials...imvho we should limit all races to a max of 16 ( 12 for me ) as these luckfests are only any good for the bookie and are very off putting for your run o the mill punter after all who really wants to stick there hard earned on something that amounts to either the fav or not much more than a guess , say what you want but the reality is in these 20+ runner races getting the winner requires a far higher degree of luck than skill and using implied odds to make a book in these gives you a 20/1 Favourite..which is total bollocks and pretty much sums up these...the bookies love em, i hate them , no real value in doing fuck all, cant really lay, shouldnt be backing, in running is bollocks as too much happens late on and the markets are fucked up so maybe some pre race trading but that kills my soul...imo if you had the same race but with the best or top rated 12 then you would have a better race, a better market and the same amount would be wagered only now the punter has a chance and the EW markets become fruitful and those that dont make it can race in other races where the opposition is pauce and the shit can be sent into claimers where they belong....

Anyway thats me rant over , lets move onto Day 3 Proper and see if we can get a smash n grab out of the first four races....

GLORIOUS GOODWOOD ~ DAY 3 ~

RACE 1

WIN - THA'IR - 
EW - CODE OF HONOUR -
LONG - MUSHAAKIS -

SUMMARY : Gordons Hcap over 1m1f for 3 yr olds and this looks ultra competitive with just about all these coming here with recent winning form  and all look to have a chance of sorts this is a very tough start to the day...
Without a doubt tho THE CLASS in this race is THA'IR who last year Ran Toranado to less than 3L was also beaten just 3/4L by Group Winner Olympic Glory , Beaten just a Head in the Solario by Fantastic Moon and had Won the Chesham beating some fair sorts and although he seemed a bit disappointing this term after two rather lackluster runs he showed his real class lto when easily accounting for the rapidly improving ( and winner since ) Sennockian Star and now he has found his heart could easily prove half a stone better than these who although good for their grade are no more than decent Hcappers and Tha'ir is Pattern Class at his worst and Full group Class at his best and for me will win this comfortably if reproducing his best form and the thought of getting 8.2 or more excites me greatly.

*Broughton wins for MJ and this was my original EW selection but i rather foolishly went against my own ratings ( even max laid Code of Honour )...i made a good profit from the Lay but i should have stuck with the eventual winner., Tha'ir was very disappointing after having every chance but just threw a strop.
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RACE 2

WIN - FIGURE OF SPEECH - 
EW - ANDHESONTHERUN -
LONG - THUNDER STRIKE - 3rd @ 12.0

SUMMARY : Now its the Richmond Stakes a good race for 2 yr olds over 6f that has been won by a couple of decent types but is usually won by something no better than group 2 and a run of around 96-105 is usually good enough to take this and there are a few that look good enough to run to that level or more.
Firstly we should mention THUNDER STRIKE from the hot as a Poker Richard Hannon who has won this 4 times in the last 5 Years ( and His Master of War was only just touched off into 2nd last year to stop the 5 timer ) , this comes into this on merit tho as it rattled up a good hat trick before finding life too tough in the Coventry but still ran a very good race coming 4th and then did absolutely fuck all when as a 1/2f come last of 5 ( 5/5 ) and ran as tho something was amiss but was scoped and nothing found so that may be an anomaly and Hannon wouldn't be running it if it wasn't 100% but that last run has sown the seeds of doubt and for now i be looking elsewhere.
Parbold is entered but after Wednesday's Run i will be very surprised if he takes it up and even if he does i would leave alone as this looks like it needs 7f or even 1m now.
FIGURE OF SPEECH for me looks the likeliest winner after winning a nothing maiden then ran beyond his experience and years in coming 2nd in the July Stakes and this could be a bit special with improvement to come from each angle and this has to be a strong player here.
Finally i think we should have ANDHESONTHERUN on our side as this won in a very very quick time lto and a repeat of that would put him in the top three for sure and he can win if running to that level with even the most meager of improvement.

*Figure of speech stumbled out of the stalls and was chasing after losing a lot there and then ran on for 4th but was never going to win after that start, is imo still the best horse in the race.
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RACE 3

WIN - ALTANO - 2nd @ 11.8
EW - CAUCUS -
LONG - BOYS IN BLUE **- 3rd @ 15.60 ( Ahzeemah )

SUMMARY : The Artemis now , a tough race over 2m for 3+ yr olds and this field ios one packed with nearly or has been horses and rather unfortunately most are running to a similar level which makes the selection process that little bit harder.
There are also a host of runners that are yet to tackle the trip so quite a lot of trust is being given to most here not least BROWN PANTHER ( 1st @ 7.83 ) who has the form and profile to win and looks as tho he will make into a good stayer IF he stays...Yes if he does then he has an outstanding chance...ifs n butts everywhere...
With the Boys in Blue holding all the aces today i feel they could easily be landing this especially with three runners all of which look good enough to win and have the form to back this up and this really does add spice to a race that is already a conundrum inside a paradox of an enigma...
CAUCUS ran really well when winning the Coral Marathon over 2m lto and will be right up there come mix time and is worth more than a cautionary note, Finally we have possibly the most interesting runner in ALTANO and another possible winner from Ze Fatherland as these German stayers have proved as adept as the Aussies are at Sprinting and this had a taking run lto running on like a train after nodding off half way round and with more forceful tactics applied will be a major player here.
*
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RACE 4

WIN - WILD COCO - ( NAP ) - 1st @ 1.91
EW -
LONG -

SUMMARY : The Lillie Langtry Stakes a wonderfully named race and quite a tricky one over 1m6f a trip that most cant get or the stayers are not quick enough for..this is a special trip and not many truly get it.
However tough this may look i am looking no further than todays NAP in WILD COCO who is not only a distance winner ( only one of two ) but a CD winner as this cracking but tough to train ( injury prone but now lightly raced ) mare won this very race last year and interestingly is also German Bred.
Wild Coco absolutely trotted up last year running away at the finish to win with ease and was pulled a couple of weeks ago from a race with indifferent ground and this would always have been the main aim and right now i see no way that this loses , Highest rated by some way ( at least 10lb in hand ) , CD winner who will love the ground from a stable that continues in great form racing against largely inferior animals over a trip most have never tried or failed at....i cannot see any further than this.

*Very EASY ;)
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RACE 5

WIN - RADIATOR -
EW - REGARDEZ - 
LONG - TENDER EMOTION -

SUMMARY : Now its a 20 runner maiden...QUICK RUN FOR THE HILLS!!....this is just plain bonkers but lets see what we can do...
First on my list is REGARDEZ from a sire ive been tracking some time and has had a good deal of success lately ( Champs Elysees )  and the Beckett team know how to ready a juvenile and Crowley is an ace pilot so this should run well.
The next two on my breeders list radar are RADIATOR and TENDER EMOTION.

*5th , 8th and 9th..
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RACE 6

WIN - PYTHAGOREAN - 2nd @ 4.86
EW - MUHARRIB -
LONG - HOMAGE -

SUMMARY : Now we have a 16 runner Hcap over 7f that again looks very tricky although PYTHAGOREAN must have a big chance if running to his very best along with Muharrib and HOMAGE.
Not one market leader has won this in 10 years. Homage will be vying for favouritism after just failing to complete a hat-trick at Sandown but a high draw won't help. Majestic Moon is improving fast and is just 6lb higher than his latest success at Newmarket. He's well enough drawn as is Shafaani, the winner of two of his last three and not beaten far in Listed company in March. MUHARRIB came up against a smart performer in Law Enforcement at Newmarket and couldn't have done much better. He'll be suited by the drop in trip and can go one better though Pythagorean, who had Majestic Moon behind when scoring at Leicester in May, endured a desperately unlucky run at Sandown last time and connections will be expecting compensation..

*Beaten on the line even tho it traded as 1.50 Fav in the Foty market...;P
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RACE 7

WIN - XINBAMA -
EW - MEAN IT -
LONG - REE'S RASCAL - 2nd @ 11.60

SUMMARY : And to finish both me and the card off is an 18 runner Hcap over 1m1f for the oldies and for Apprentice riders....sigh. Copperwood has won 14 of his 97 races and probably hasn't finished yet despite being beaten here on Tuesday when he completely missed the break. His previous run at Epsom, where he made all with the favourite Highland Duke a length back in third, suggests he will be competitive here. Commend has flattered to deceive but has dropped to a winnable mark and has to be respected along with Xinbama, whose two recent victories have been at Epsom. Mean It has done really well on soft ground and looks well enough treated to run a big race but the vote goes to REE'S RASCAL, who was a bit unlucky at this fixture a year ago and has bounced back to form with a Newbury victory and a good second to Gaul Wood at Windsor...


*
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So there we have it..another stupidly tough day with a tremendous looking NAP....two or three bets is the max for today with some cheap exotics thrown in..enjoy..ttfn x.

Goodwood - Day 2 -

                                              

Well its fair to say that not only was my NAP utter Pants on Tuesday but the whole card was very light on winners and winning opportunities , a rare day where nothing went as i thought or expected and this was compounded with some poor luck and questionable riding but it does happen and i simply cant keep smashing it every day , but i really fell for Sachas Park and expected so much more ( Beaten into 5th beaten nk , nk , 2L , nk , nk ) and i kinda smashed into that and even tho i told myself  " Place Lay for cover and if it hits 3.1 dump it all " i refused to be disciplined and paid the price , note to self : dont be such a twat...that will tough tho as im an awesome twat ;P....

So onto Day 2 and time for a recovery but will today hold anything for me to aim at??...

Lets take a look....

GOODWOOD ~ DAY 2 ~

RACE 1
WIN - LIEUTENANT MILLER - 2nd @ 8.20
EW - GASSIN GOLF -
LONG - KAZBOW -

SUMMARY : Jeez day 2 starts off with an incredibly tough race, 20 runners racing over 2m5f....Magic Pin?...fucking " Miracle Pin " is needed i think...
.The Johnson and Henderson yards have enjoyed recent success in this and both are doubly represented today. Mark Johnston runs the out of form Good Morning Star and last weekend's Ascot winner Broxbourne. The latter carries a 3lb penalty and has something to find on earlier running at Doncaster with Lieutenant Miller while Nicky Henderson's other runner Courtesy Call ran below par in the Queen Alexandra Stakes over today's trip at the Royal meeting. SOHAR was beaten just over three lengths in the latter race at Ascot which was a fine effort considering he had to race on such unfavourable terms. Back in a handicap with Frankie on board, he's fancied to make a bold bid and reverse running with third-placed Seaside Sizzler. Beyond, Sula Two and Beyond Conceit are others to consider but Kazbow and Italian Riviera are upped in class for this wide-open marathon..
I do know for a fact that team Hendo' are keen on Lieutenant Miller and that will attract a bet from me as they are unsure of  Courtesy Call.

*
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 2
WIN - EXCESS KNOWLEDGE - 2nd @ 2.97
EW - ELKAAYED -
LONG - N/A -

SUMMARY : Small turnout for the Gordon Richards Stakes a group 3 over 1m4f for the 3 yr olds but a closely matched one at that with EXCESS KNOWLEDGE  being the standout as this has form in the book and an improving profile although if the ground gets any softer we may end up in unknown territory.
*Cap O'Rushes was in the the Irish Derby to ensure a good pace for the disappointing Libertarian but ended up staying on well for fourth. He has his first start for new Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby here and is preferred to Saeed Bin Suroor's Secret Number. The latter finished virtually upsides with the front-running Elkaayed when a couple of lengths behind Remote at Ascot. John Gosden trains Remote and his EXCESS KNOWLEDGE looks to have leading claims in this after a third behind older and much higher rated horses at Sandown. He should relish today's longer trip and gets the vote. Havana Beat finished just ahead of Testudo when third at Newmarket last time but both have plenty to find in this company as does Spillway. 

*Another race that carries a hard luck story ;((..Grrr..
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RACE 3
WIN - DAWN APPROACH - 2nd @ 1.90
EW - TORANADO - 1st @ 3.90
LONG - N/A -

SUMMARY : Now its time for the race of the day and possibly the race of the Meeting as we have the Sussex Stakes and the much and eagerly awaited Match up between TORANADO and DAWN APPROACH ( met twice already with Dawn Approach winning both although the last one was a contentious victory ) and there will be little to separate them today.
This is a tough one to call for the winner but i will say this..the Dutch is paying 1.24...yes 1.24 and that is possibly the greatest bet this year and will be the easiest Money i make all year!!....yes its only any good if you lump but i would tell anyone that listens..empty your bank account, empty your savings and pile into this dutch like there is no tmrw!!!..£1000 staked for the easiest ever £240 profit.......
What will win tho imo...Honestly its a toughie but i thought pre Derby Toranado was the better horse and i still do and i am expecting this to truly justify its lofty ( with me ) reputation and come out on top.

*Dutch Paid 1.33 in the end..Excellent result.
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RACE 4
WIN - PARBOLD ( NAP ) - Ran no sort of race* - 3rd
EW - OUTSTRIP - 2nd @ 7.83
LONG -

SUMMARY : Another smallish field for the Cliquot Stakes which was won last year by the impressive Olympic Glory and Hannon goes for Gold again with his two entries however i find it inconceivable that Expert will be anywhere near good enough to win this after just hanging on lto in a Class 4 Maiden which was weak.
PARBOLD it has been said by the trainer is a horse that he loves, holds in high regards and is one of the best 2 yr olds he has ever had...quite a statement from someone that has had thousands pass through his fingers!! and this was backed up by a good win in his maiden then a very decent 2nd in the Coventry and easily accounting for a host of other good sorts including Lanark and Parbold for me is the likely winner here and will be getting a decent wedge from me.
Outstrip could prove the best of the rest but is largely untested. 

*Out the back, pushed along from halfway and never in it , the first two home both look very smart.
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RACE 5
WIN - VALONIA - 1st @ 4.80
EW - AUTUMN SUNRISE -
LONG - MUCH PROMISE -

SUMMARY : Next up is another very tough to call , competitive maiden and this looks almost as tough as yesterdays ( in which i failed so miserably ) but this time its harder because so many have some form and most of it is good form.
i think the three with the strongest form are the ones to focus on and they are MUCH PROMISE , AUTUMN SUNRISE and VALONIA with slight preference for the latter.
*It's a bit of a surprise not see Richard Hannon's name among the list of winning trainers in the last 10 years and AUTUMN SUNRISE could that right. She followed-up a promising debut with an even better effort at Newbury earlier this month and Richard Hughes prefers her to the newcomer Arranger. Much Promise found just the one too good on her debut on the Polytrack and she'll need to be winning this if she's to take up her entry in the Cheveley Park Stakes. The same comment applies to Valonia and Merletta who also have engagements in September's Group 1 race. Stars Above Me is out of the family of high-class filly Soviet Song and looks best of the newcomers.
*
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 6
WIN - RIBBONS - 1st @ 5.09
EW - JABHAAT -
LONG - GREAT TIMING -

SUMMARY : Another cavalry charge in this 1m1f Hcap with its 16 runners..Last month's maiden winners Close At Hand and A Star In My Eye look dangerous lurking at the bottom of the weights for their handicap debuts. Great Timing beat Forgive at Newbury on her latest start and can confirm running despite the worse terms while Opera Box isn't out of this as she steps back down in trip after just failing to make all over 1m2f. Jabhaat is not certain to appreciate the longer distance but it should prove no problem for the unbeaten RIBBONS. James Fanshawe's filly is upped a further 7lb for her latest win at Newmarket but an earlier victory over a mile at this track boosts confidence and she gets the nod. Saucy Minx is another course winner with a shout off her current mark.

*
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
RACE 7
WIN - BRAVE ECHO -
EW - MAGIC CITY - 1st @ 7.60
LONG - GOOD AUTHORITY -

SUMMARY : Impossible race to finish on..Magic City remains in fine form and won again at Epsom last time. However, a high draw hasn't done him any favours in this and GOOD AUTHORTY is fancied reverse earlier running over track and trip on better terms. The latter ran below par behind Askaud at Leicester on his latest start but is only 3lb higher than when scoring over course and distance in June and a return to this venue should bring out the best in him. Brave Echo got his head back in front at Deauville last time but both he and Spirit Of Sharjah have a bit to find with the principals as does Tidentime. Nenge Mboko has a penalty and a rise in class to contend with after rattling up a hat-trick over 6f and recent Ayr winner Alejandro makes more appeal..

*
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A couple of nice bets to be had with the rest of the card looking very bookie friendly and i will be taking it easy today...But we do a cracker to look forward to, happy punting and GL ;)..ttfn x.

Much better day ;))

PPL Results ..

Are now updated ( TAB ) since Sept 2012 , the up shot is we are currently showing ...
TOTAL P N L = £14,788.32 PROFIT SINCE SEPT.

TMRW is the start of probably my Favourite week...

                                                   

Yes its that time, its GLORIOUS GOODWOOD a week that for me holds some very special memories , yes it doesnt have quite the class and spectacle of Royal Ascot nor the Prize Money of Champions Day but its close to me..why?...for me this was the start pretty much of my Journey into Horse Racing i got a taste for it when in my local boozer ( aged 16 ) and watched the utterly brilliant ( but limited to 1m only ) WARNING charge away with the Sussex stakes , that lit the flame and i was hooked ( Starkey and Harwood did me some great turns ) and then the following year ( Warning wained a bit here and was not helped for being run in the wrong races , although tbf none of todays cowboys had to race against the likes of Indian Skimmer , Nashwan or Miesque in fact even Doyoun would eat most of todays runners alive ) the mighty ZILZAL won the Sussex stakes beating a high class field that included Warning  , Markofdistinction and Shaadi ( but after seeing him win his maiden by an incredible 10L you knew this was special ) and with it i have always held a fondness for this meeting and this year looks to have a cracking race on its hands again when Toranado takes on Dawn Approach again in what shud be a cracking renewal.

                     

So lets take a good look at the Opening day...

RACE 1

WIN - FAST OR FREE -
EW - VASILY -
LONG - NABUCCO - 2nd @ 9.20

SUMMARY : A very tough 1m1f 18 Runner Hcap to start the meeting and day off and it is one that requires the use of ones " Lucky Pin "..No favourite has won this in the past ten years and the shortest priced winner was 7/1. Mark Johnston has won it three times in that period and relies on the tough Fennell Bay, who is just 3lb higher than when scoring at Thirsk last month and ran well at the meeting a year ago, and Reset City, whose two victories to date have come in lower grade handicaps. Fast Or Free is likely to start market leader despite an absence since landing the Brittannia Handicap at Royal Ascot last year. He won first time out last season and is probably pattern race class though he's up 9lb and this is a very tough race to make a return. Hi There has been racing as though this sort of trip was needed and is just 6lb higher than when scoring at Musselburgh in March so has to go on the short-list along with Nabucco, who showed his quality with a smooth victory in this grade at Newmarket last month, and Blue Surf, though the latter could do with more rain. WHISPERING WARRIOR has more to find but looks capable of doing so despite an 8lb rise for his victory at Newcastle. He's now won five of his last six and a mark of 93 could be underestimating him..


*
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RACE 2

WIN - THE SUPPLICANT -
EW - AMBIANCE - 3rd @ 11.5
LONG - REROUTE -

SUMMARY : The Molecomb Stakes , a good race over 5f for the young uns and a decent albeit only 9 runner field headed by my idea of the winner SUPPLICANT a cracking son of Kyllachy that ran a great race lto coming 2nd in the Windsor Castle Stakes and having backed this in all 3 runs this season i see no reason to desert it just yet as this is still improving and enjoying every outing and will surely be up there and i will be surprised if this doesnt place.
AMBIANCE did nothing in France lto ( Papin ) but had run very well prior to that getting placed in the Norfolk and should be in the mix come the final 1f.
REROUTE is also very interesting for Ed Walker which won its maiden in taking fashion fto and then ran the very good Rizeena to just 4L in the Queen Mary and has a lot more scope than a lot of these and could run a big race at very decent odds.
History has shown us that the " form " horses and those higher rated tend to do much better as its a race more concerned with ability than weight or circumstance.

*Hannon 1-2 with again the " Rag " winning - Supplicant got a very poor ride from Ryan Moore ( 4th )
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RACE 3

WIN - ALJAMAAHEER - NON - RUNNER - ;(
EW - FENCING -
LONG - GARSWOOD - 1ST @ 3.49

SUMMARY : Now we have the Lennox Stakes over 7f and this is an odd race in that it is often won by something group class ( or close ) but does attract a lot of sprinters into the entries and most just cant get it and todays race is no difference with a raft of these most unlikely to get this trip at pace and we have a few 7f specialists to look at.
FENCING will have to be a leading player here having secured a good victory over 1m in a Listed event at Ascot and then running a good race in the JLT Lockinge running midfield but with group class runners in front and behind ( Penitent , Reply and Trumpet Major among others ) and he will enjoy the drop back to this quick 7f.
the winner tho for me could easily be ALJAMAAHEER which has almost exclusively only ever raced over 7f or 1m and has a very good profile and looks very consistent with its last 3 runs bringing back a 1st/2nd and a 3rd with defeats at short distances to Both Farhh and Declaration of War looking top class form as both had run exceptionally well in winning and this feel should def be in the places.
The unexposed class in this could be GARSWOOD after winning the European Free in good style from Emell and Lucky Beggar ( both winners since ) then a decent enough 7th in the 2000 Guineas and a better 4th in the Jersey Stakes leaves enough to ponder about, this could easily get involved or even win if improving but its a case of what if against what has...and for me What has wins..ALJAMAHEER.

*
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RACE 4

WIN - DUKE OF CLARENCE -
EW - ORIENTAL FOX -
LONG - MONTASER - NON RUNNER -

SUMMARY : Now we have a tough looking 1m6f Hcap with a meduuim sized field and this specialist trip catches many a good 1m4f horse out so for me proven form or ability to stay well is key and in a race like this i would rather have a good stayer over a late running quickener every time and this gives us DUKE OF CLARENCE as the first to look at ( although this defies my previous statement as this quickened up from the 1f pole to lengthen away ) which ran and won well lto over this 1m6f and will bu on the hunt from 2f out and having the excellent Hughes riding ( class at coming from off the pace ) this will be bang there i am sure.
Silver Lime i think will be right on his shoulder as this does like to race just behind the leaders and will be wanting to make a move around 2f out.
MONTASER is a funny old horse, stays all day and can run on or off the pace but is a bit of moody so n so but if in the mood could easily take this down.
Finally we have ORIENTAL FOX a horse that runs in typical MJ fashion and is as inconsistent as any in his yard a horse that likes to make all and on two of its last 3 runs has tried this tactic but has been done literally on the line both occasions but this could stretch them out and with so many not sure to stay this could easily have them off its legs .

*Harris Tweed roll back the clock with a good staying performance, making just about all AND quickening off the front from the 1f pole to run away with this..easily his best run from the last few years.
___________________________________________________ Placepot Done.
RACE 5

WIN - SACHAS PARK ( NAP ) - Unplaced 
EW -
LONG -

SUMMARY : Now we have the race im really waiting for and a horse that will either pay for my whole week or one that will mean its just beans on toast till next week...and that is SACHA PARK now i have had some monster bets this year but this will probably eclipse them all as it is so rare to ever get a genuine 97 rated Maiden running in a maiden ( 97p ) , this started its 4 run career off with a good 2nd to the highly thought off Saayerr and with that experience under its belt was sent to Ireland to contest the Listed Rochestown stakes but ran into the useful Stubbs from AoB ( beaten in 6th 8L by War Command ( this was very very impressive ) in the Coventry ) then ran a brilliant 6th in the Norfolk and i say brilliant as they all pretty much flashed passed together with the finishing distances being > nk , sh , nk , nk , 1L and sh so you see this was a frantic affair and then on its last run in a 3 runner race this went off as surprisingly the 7/4 second fav and was again beaten a neck by the 101 rated Emirates Flyer ( giving concrete caste to its 97p rating ).
So although there are a couple of others here with some decent maiden form ( in fact most of the remaining form of those that have run would be good enough to win most class 4 maidens ) the facts are this..it is very very rare to ever get a maiden winning or racing at over 100 and that is what any runner will need to do to beat Sachas Park , SP has run to its mark and is improving and its lto run will be good enough right now with improvement it wins easy by 2L or more but has shown nothing in its character to suggest this is the case and this will be getting a max lump NAP bet from me.
The remainder all look good and there is little to choose between them however Muir Lodge does spike my interest with Crowley riding for Fitri Hay and a first ride for Balding in what looks to me to be probably the toughest maiden of the year so far.

*A bit Gutted to be honest as Brazos Wins and tbh Sacha Park never looked like winning and has run at least 15lb below its rating ,...enough excuses..this was a fail..and im as disappointed as anyone..
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RACE 6

WIN - CAPTAIN CAT -
EW - JUVENAL -
LONG - DESERT REVOLUTION -

SUMMARY : Back to reality now with a monster 20 runner Hcap..Uppercut won this last year from Bancnuanaheireann and Jack's Revenge with the placed horse both claiming unlucky runs. There's little between them this time though all three are drawn high which isn't an advantage here. Mark Johnston won this with the three-year-old Yamal in 2008 so he should know how he stands with Desert Revolution, though a lack of experience won't help and the stable's Copperwood may have more of a chance as he beat Uppercut at Epsom last time. Ascription is progressing and is drawn well unlike the returning Captain Cat, a potential Group winner but facing a very stiff task after such a long absence. DEMOCRETES hasn't won as often as he should but has continued to creep up the weights. He got no sort of run in the Buckingham Palace Handicap at Ascot and hopefully things will fall into place from his low draw so he's given the nod..

*
___________________________________________________
RACE 7

WIN - JEDWARD -
EW - RUSTY ROCKET -
LONG - LOST IN PARIS -

SUMMARY : And a ridiculous 5f Dash with 26 runners...time for the Pin again.
Tony Carroll loves this race and has won it twice in the past ten years including last year when he also had the third VALMINA, who is on the same mark this time, is better drawn and looks more likely to land this than stablemates Tidal's Baby and Edge Closer. Dandy Nicholls was once virtually unbeatable in sprints here and will be hoping Hamoody can relive the glory days and the veteran is no forlorn hope despite recent victories coming in much lower grade contests. Lady Gibraltar hasn't won since dead-heating with Jwala at the meeting a year ago but she's been in fine form as she showed behind Secret Asset at York. Jedward is another who hasn't won since last year but comes here in peak form having just failed to concede lumps of weight to Midnight Dynamo at Ayr. Lost In Paris comes here with a penalty after a convincing success at Catterick last week but still looks well enough treated to make his presence felt...

*
___________________________________________________

                                                             

Well a tough day with some very Bookie friendly races but i have my Banker in this for the week and will look forward to filling up my satchel post-with ;)...A good start to a cracking week..enjoy ;)

Only horse i really Fancy today....

Previously posted at 11:30am today on the Pro Site ( PUK > Premiumukracingtips.com )...

One i Fancy for today….

I really cant explain this, nothing scientific about it really but CHARLES CAMOIN is a horse that keeps averting my gaze , it may be that its 12.5 and the Fav is 3.6 yet CC has better overall form a better overall profile and is higher rated , it maybe that its 12.5 because this is its seasonal bow yet its last 2 debut’s have seen a 1/2 2nd @ 20/1 and a 1st @ 15/2 with the latter over todays trip of 1m3f with its only poor or indifferent shows being over 1m4f so Sylvester Kirk will have a good idea of what , where and when and with regular pilot Keniry riding suggests this should be fit enough to himself justice.

Yes its giving lumps of weight away but it has the form and ability to suggest this wont be a problem and has the burden to carry as its clearly the best horse in the race, it has won and ran v well on ground types ranging from AW, Soft , Gd thru to Good to firm so whatever it is today shouldnt be a problem , yes indeed i think this is a cracking bet today and at the odds is one of those EW bets to nothing, it has to be done, if you lose , you wipe your eye and move on but you can say to yourself..” ahh fuck it man..just had to be done “…;P

BooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooM – 1ST @ 36.80

Fantasy Football League 2013-2014

                              

http://fantasy.premierleague.com/

After a brilliant and close fought season last year , please join us for the new season ;)..Code to join this league: 629867-153061

                                

July PPL Update

1. = £152.00 LOSS
2. = £400.00 WIN
3. = £132.00 WIN
4. = £139.50 WIN
5. = £61.00 WIN
6. = £400.00 WIN
7. = £286.00 WIN

Eow Totals = £1266.50 PROFIT

8. = £150.00 LOSS
9. = NO BET
10. = £50.00 WIN
11. = £576.00 LOSS
12. = NO BET
13. = HOLIDAY TILL 24TH
24. = NO BET
25. = £162.00 Profit
26. = £70.83 Profit
27. = £213.00 Profit
28. = £NO BET

EoM Total £ N/A        / Running Total = £1036.33 Profit

Sat at YORK

               >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>SATURDAY YORK CARD<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
                                                     

RACE 1

WIN - NEMUSHKA - 3rd @ 8.60
EW - MAVEN -
LONG - VELVETY -

SUMMARY : MAVEN is a proven CD winner ( won this race last year ) and that was arguably his best run and will have been primed by his canny trainer for a repeat success whilst Nemushka comes into this race with probably the best recent form with a good win over Tuscania lto and the Fahey/Hanaghan team up for a rare combo since the rider left for arab Maktoum and will surely run a big race and finally on our radar is Velvety the first runner for Chris Appleby who has now taken over the licence that was formerly held by Zarooni ( disgraced drug cheat ) and this unbeaten Daughter of Bernadini could be absolutely anything and shouldnt be totally discounted in a tough looking opening race to the card.


_______________________________________________________
RACE 2

WIN - SMARTY SOCKS - 2nd @ 4.10 ( Dropped whip in final 1f )
EW - SIRIUS PROSPECT - 1st @ 6.82
LONG - NAMEITWHATYOULIKE -

SUMMARY : 12 runner 7f Hcap and a small field which makes a change for York ( changes later )  and i simply cannot get away from SMARTY SOCKS a CD winner and old friend of the blog , this has the ability on a going day to easily win this but can just as easily decide it doesnt want to play.
SHAMDARLEY will also run a competitive race and looks a much improved and more consistent sort this season and will be involved in the finish and finally NAVAJO CHIEF is well worth some EW fun back on a track he loves and if running like he did when winning the Hambleton stakes in May then he will give them all something to think about.


_______________________________________________________
RACE 3

WIN - MUKHADRAM - 1st @ 1.46
EW - N/A -
LONG - N/A -

SUMMARY : Small field Group 2 but quite tight although if MUKHADRAM has not lost any zest after a couple of tough races then this is surely all over as i have this well clear on my TMR and is about 20lb clear on my book ~ but has the defeats behind Al Khazeem taken their toll??...i dont think so but 1.62 is a short price but the right price however...


_______________________________________________________
RACE 4

WIN - BACCARAT -
EW - TROPICS - 1st @ 5.79
LONG - FAST SHOT -

SUMMARY : 20 Runner Sprint Hcap...this is more like York..get your magic pin out, chuck it in there and lets see what happens..Traditionally one of the biggest betting races of the year and the prize can stay in Yorkshire if BACCARAT can do the business. The four-year-old raced a little too exuberantly in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot but he looks to have plenty of quality about him and is a previous winner on the Knavesmire. Farlow is also set to represent Richard Fahey. Though more exposed, he caught the eye in defeat at Doncaster and is slowly slipping down the handicap. Dick Bos had a couple of awaydays to Ireland and was ahead of Fast Shot when they met at Ripon. Tim Easterby's inmate wasn't far away in the Scottish Stewards' Cup at Hamilton and he is entitled to be a big player here. Tropics has continued to improve and he won well at Windsor. Khubala has a chance re-opposing on much better terms, however, and Hugo Palmer's four-year-old has gone on to run a cracker in the Wokingham since..


_______________________________________________________
RACE 5

WIN - KICKBOXER - 3rd @ 7.45
EW - HOT STREAK - 1st @ 2.71
LONG - N/A -

SUMMARY : Next up is a poor looking Maiden for York and this looks a straight fight between newcomer HOT STREAK who was expensively purchased for the up and coming Qatar team and is trained  by Kevin Ryan who won last years renewal and Mick Channons only runner at the meeting KICKBOXER who was a decent 2nd lto after a tardy start and will do much better here in a weak looking renewal.


_______________________________________________________
RACE 6

WIN - DR IRV - 5th ( hit 1.61 )
EW - ALEKSANDER -
LONG - GABRIALS STAR - NON RUNNER - ( Placepot money on Fav ) - Fav Placed ( 1st ) -

SUMMARY : Now its a 2m Hcap with 13 runners and this will be tough for the off pace runners trying to make ground up on a firm York takes some doing and with tired legs is nigh on impossible but GABRIALS STAR does appear to have been laid out specifically for this race and should run well along with the re opposing pair of DR IRV and ALEKSANDER.



Placepot Hit - 4 Lines @ 25p = £1 @ ( Need £27 to break even , all extra is profit ) 
_______________________________________________________
RACE 7

WIN - BAYTOWN  KESTREL -
EW - INNOCENTLY - 1st @ 4.48
LONG - N/A -

SUMMARY : Finally we have a 7 runner Nursery and this should be the time for BAYTOWN KESTREL to get his head back in front and prove the doubters wrong , beaten by very narrow margins on its last 2 runs and an expected no show at Royal Ascot behind Rizeena plus a very good maiden win make for very good reading and this should run a massive race back at York.


_______________________________________________________

Big Friday Warm Up ;)

Well yesterday was a good day over all with some solid wins and some solid profits come in, not a winner in every race but a profit from most and its profit that really matters ;)...
Sometimes its not just about selecting a winner because the real skill is understanding a race and how the race should be run and getting that right for me is just as enjoyable as picking out the outright winner , ok there is no glory in that as the work a day " punter 2 just wants to lump on every " good thing " in the hope of scoop after scoop but the reality is ...that doesnt happen that often and the key to staying ahead is not what you bet but how you bet and how your bets are staked , hitting a few losers but coming out even stevens is a result in mine and anyone elses book and when you get that winner it is all profit not a refill on earlier losses and thats how you move ahead...
Understanding the key mechanics behind a market and understanding your own expectations is vital in attaining a profit , too many " mug punters " simply look at selections ( there own or others ) and nip into the bookies splash out some cash and then are surprised , disappointed or both if they havent won the Jackpot....it just doesnt work like that , Multi combo bets require a great deal of luck ( even my own with 2 or 3 selections per race ) , Placepots are the same, back favs and it pays shite , back the roughies and you need your fingers crossed but if you do hit it will pay big but the frequency or chance of winning is much less and much lower, using Online books like Betfair allows you to Back and Lay ( arbing , hedging , trading , laying off ) and this should allow the " Modern " Punter to adapt a new method of punting in both the single and Ew markets and for the Multis ( have a Yankee with 3 winners and 1 to go....Lay that third at fair odds for a good return ) , the options for attaining a profit on any given race are almost limitless these days and all you need is some nous , patience and discipline .
Dont get me wrong i like to " lump on " a few at times but these come from a secondary pot ( explained elsewhere ) and these bets feed my gambling need allowing me to focus on the important aspect of " making money "..;).
We have a cracking couple of days racing coming up as we speed towards Glorious Goodwood and these new betting methods shud be practiced now , open up a Betfair account using the Advert above ( if you dont have one ) deposit and start...stop using the retail fobot shops and start making some money!!.
This part lecture/part tutorial/part rant was bought to you and sponsored by youwontlistensowhydoibother.com.

So Friday...yes we have a couple of very nice looking day cards and a couple of excellent looking Evening cards so i think i will do a card for ASCOT during the day and possibly Newmarket for the evening if time allows ( plus i shall glance over York as well as my friend Ross is going ).

ASCOT

RACE 1

WIN - PSYCHOMETRY - 2nd @ 6.40
EW - LIKLIEHOOD -
LONG - STEALTH MISSILE -

SUMMARY : A very very tough looking 18 runner 2 yr old Maiden starts the day off and this looks big in quality and quantity with some very well bred sorts about and just a few with any form or experience.
The three with the best recent form all ran reasonably well with two getting placed ( 2nd & 3rd ) however they were easily beaten and both were running on after running green early on so should improve but the runs were only to a level of around 67 - 69 and i am expecting a run of 82-88 here so i find it highly unlikely that they will be good enough on that evidence and have to be overlooked.
The two Abdulla horses look very interesting with the Half Sister to the very useful Dundonnell  ( 1st @ 10.40 )carrying the second colours behind Likliehood who is related to Treble Jig and both of these could ( in races like this everything is taken on trust and one can only use the data available ) be in the mix ( or run flat if without chances at halfway ).
Placidia is very exciting being a progeny of the majestic Sea The Stars and out of a Dam that has a degree of success and this could prove very good but the jury is still out thus far regarding STS's off spring....
PSYCHOMETRY  ( 2nd ) look very good ( will be paddock watching ) and is from a sire i very much like and Niarchos is deserving of having a classic entry for next year after such staunch support of UK racing and with Moore taking the ride i feel this could be the answer.
Stealth Missile is very well bred and Clive Brittain likes to take on the big boys and has had one or two mega stars go thru his hands ( Pebbles ) and it would be no  surprise to see this go well at big odds.
Then We have Tea in Transvaal for the all conquering Hannon/Hughes team and this is sure to be thereabouts being by Teofolio. ( 3rd )...so plenty to think about.
**I have had a " word " that Mutatis Mutandis should go well at huge odds, ripe n ready to race early on and currently 70.0**.

*Not really a race to be betting on , gun, bullet etc i would say EW on Psychometry.
_______________________________________
RACE 2

WIN - MR MATTHEWS -
EW - RIZAL PARK -
LONG - STORMY PARADISE - 1st @ 7.24

SUMMARY : Now we have a small field 7 runner Nursery for 2yr olds over 6f and this looks a lot easier to solve although from 7 runners we have a big shortlist of four that will be involved in the finish and they are BANADEER , RIZAL PARK , STORMY PARADISE & MR MATTHEWS and on my speed figures there is very little to separate these and i would doubt if there is much more than 2L splitting them all at the line.

*Laying Banadeer at 2.38 is the Value bet in this.
_______________________________________
RACE 3

WIN - HOMERIC - 2nd @ 2.82
EW - MAWAQEET -
LONG - N/A -

SUMMARY : Another small field ( 6 runners ) but this time over a specialist trip of 2m in which HOMERIC must have a leading chance being a CD winner and only faltered lto after finding the 2m4f too far at Ascot and looks a good bet at 3.9.
Mawaqeet looks to be a leading player after a fine lto run at York in a fairly decent race and does stay this trip very well.
Mysterious Man could get involved after his lto run when only folding in the final 50 yards over 2m4f however it had ran in a quicker race over 1m5f and did the same in that suggesting this is a smooth travelling sort that finds little off the bridle but could prove good for trading.
Broxbourne and Desert Recluse both look to have too much on here as this represents a big step up in class and Highland Castle would need to regain the form of 2011 just to be in the mix and trhis therefore leaves this looking ripe for the taking with Homeric the most likely winner.

*Straight WIN bet on Homeric.
_______________________________________
RACE 4

WIN - AUCTION -
EW - ANNECDOTE -
LONG - LIGHT UP MY LIFE -

SUMMARY : Next up is a nice looking Listed Event over 1m for the Fillies ( older ) and this looks competitive with most arriving with some form of form and all having back form to get involved.
Zibelina ( 1st @ 22.8 ) is very interesting having just the one run in a egg n spoon Maiden but did win it by 10L without breaking sweat  and is bred to be useful so could be anything but the fact that its 3rd string is enough for me to leave although when they arrive mob handed they do sometimes win with the lesser fancied runner.**
AUCTION has to be the big fancy here after rattling up a damn good hat trick and then running very well in defeat and with being a tad unlucky after being hampered and bumped lto and a big run is assured  although old adversary Annecdote will not be easy to beat as this is on the upgrade and will run well again.
And another form tie in gives us Light up My Life who should run better now tackling this less undulating course as this is closely matched up with Auction.

*EW on AUCTION
_______________________________________
RACE 5

WIN - SENNOCKIAN STAR - 1st @ 1.95
EW - VIEWPOINT -
LONG - N/A -

SUMMARY : Another small field with this 4 runner race over 1m2f for the older sorts and any of the four can win....very tight but i do fancy SENNOCKIAN STAR in this and its lto run behind T'hair ( beaten 1/2L ) was very good, stays the trip well, likes the ground, is in form from an in form yard and jockey and really looks the one they have to beat.


*Straight WIN bet on Sennockian Star.
_______________________________________
RACE 6

WIN - LANGLEY VALE -
EW - GLADIATRIX - 2nd @ 6.13
LONG - GABBIANO - 1st @ 3.68

SUMMARY : We round the day off with a pinstickers Hcap which as stated is wide open...
Best Be Careful has slipped down the weights since winning this contest last year but is hard to fancy here racing from out of the handicap. GLADIATRIX has gone close on a couple of occasion this year. She finished ahead of Rowe Park, Diamond Charlie and Muhdiq when third at Sandown in June and a repeat may be good enough to land this. Gabbiano found only one too good in a higher grade sprint over 6f here a fortnight ago but the drop back to the minimum trip is a worry and the same can be said of Langley Vale. Irish Boy escapes a penalty for winning an apprentices race over 5f at Doncaster last time but this is much tougher...

*3 way dutch.
_______________________________________

Thursday @ Sandown

                                              

Well this wasnt quite the scene i faced upon my arrival home  ( as i was led to believe ) but the storms had arrived but........oh my how i loved the coolness of the night breeze blowing onto me after 11 Days of 40° + heat!!....it was divine ;) , had a cracking time away meeting a great fam from Barnsley and having a hoot with one of my special highlights having a running race down Benidorm Island against my 19 yr old Son ( smashed it ;) ) but was crazy sweating upon reaching the bottom....it is also a tragic shame they feel the need to make all the fun rides and stuff ( jet skis, banana boat etc ) so bloody expensive ( £300 for fam for a half day ) !! but we did manage to make our own mischief which was a good deal cheaper , the Hotel was ok , the food was appalling and the entertainment was abysmal ( worse than ) but again we managed to enjoy with some good company and took advantage of all the free beer, wine and spirits.
So onto the racing...well it takes me a couple of days to straighten me arrows so i went easy today but struck solid with 4 bets and 4 wins and im gonna do a research card for Sandown tmrw to get my head " back in the game " as i prepare for a mouthwatering Glorious Goodwood and more importantly Doncaster on Aug 3rd ( My Dream Woman is going so i best get a good card sorted !! )...

So without further ado....lets crack on.....

SANDOWN

RACE 1 : SHAMSON - ( MAX NAP ) - 1st @ 1.88
A nice n Easy 4 runner race to solve , a 2yr old maiden over 5f  with Dream Sika looking a pile of shit this brings them down to 3 runners.
The one to focus on here tho has to be the £420,000 son of Invincible Spirit from the Hannon Yard and being ridden by the owners retained and newly appointed Jockey Frankie Dettori SHAMSON and even at the current 1.81 i think this is outstanding value , everything points to a 1st time out victory and it will be a shock if it gets rumbled.

RACE 2 : ARBAAH - UNPLACED**
Now we have a 6 runner Hcap over the odd distance of 1m6f which catches a few untested out and this does look a very tight knit group with all of them arriving in some type of form.
None have winning form at the trip but all have some decent form at either 1m4f, 1m5f or like Debdebdeb at 1m6f so all will be expected to handle the trip and the ground.
I think Deficit easily has the weakest form on offer and is readily overlooked along with Debdebdeb who i feel may struggle racing off a career high mark ( is improving but will have to find another 10-12lb over a trip she only just gets ) so that brings us down to four.
Both Sizzler and Portmonarch are interesting but both have to find a little more than their current best runs and both seem to lack in a finish which may catch them out here so this leaves me with 2 ARBAAH and LADY PIMPERNEL but Lady Pimpernel although out of Sir Percy does seem weak on the stamina side so it is with great reluctance that i veer towards the son of Invasor as the most likely winner as its 2nd ( 2 runs ago ) has been boosted with the winner going in again and then it won lto over 1m5f going away and will enjoy the quicker ground ( on breeding ) so for me its ARBAAH to win and Debdebdeb is a big Stat Lay.

**DEBDEBDEB Won in a frantic finish beating Lady Pimpernel ( At race off was the Stat Lay @ 3.68 Fav ) , Debdebdeb enjoyed the trip, stayed really well and did improve and is good on this evidence for another 12lb so any future rises wont bother her and could be worth following in similar graded races with the 2nd looking a future winner in waiting after trying to make all, the remainder was easily beaten.

RACE 3 : QAWASEEM - 2nd @ 3.50 ( Done at 1.05 )**
Now we have a very tight looking Class 1 Listed Fillies race over 7f with every runner carrying a win into the race and the fact there is little distance winning form will make little difference in this.
This is a proper puzzle to solve with three Arab bluebloods ( 2 x Dolphin and 1 x Maktoum ) plus a good looking sort from Hannon and a free running, front running sort from the Tate yard however i feel that may struggle to contain this better quality field over further so is ticked off and Rasheeda could run better now in a slightly easier race with the remainder left out of my early calculations.
QAWAASEM was easily accounted for by Lamar fto but ran slowly off the pace and then ( under tender handling ) ran on at the end showing to be very green and with this experience ran all over the field in her maiden nto beating Valonia and the very highly rated Oriel with ease and this looks a natural improver that could be anything although rather annoyingly its the current 3.85 Fav and they have a poor record in this and this isnt great value.
Both the Dolphin runners are worth a look and make for an interesting Dutch and could be used as a break even saver if backing Qawaseem ( 3 way Dutch pays just under 2.0 and is not great value and a with profit Dutch paying a slightly better 2.58 ) and having a " fun " punt on Ifrika & Rasheeda at huge odds is not as daft as it seems.

**Qawaseem led for most of this but just couldnt hold on and got nabbed on the line after hitting an incred 1.05 in running!!! , with the winner being the Dolphin runner Majeyda @ 4.03 ( Dutch was good ).

RACE 4 : DUMBARTON - 3rd ( hampered )
Now its back to the Hcaps and this small field racing over 1m2f looks another trappy affair and the Fav Ducab is worth taking on here as this trip tests its stamina to the max and has shown to be a bit paceless at the end of his races although can stay on well without quickening and the trio of Dumbarton , Sadiq and Master Ming will give him plenty to think about.
Now im not saying that Ducab Cannot win only that i feel at 3.0 its worth taking on ( Laying a horse at 2/1 with 3 viable challengers in a small field is good value ) and Master Ming is a rather big 50.0 although it will do well at the weights to reverse form with Ningara and the bet here is probably a speculative dutch on 2,5,6 & 7 at very big odds ( not for me tho as this is a max plus PPL race ), With a gun to my head i would probably say an EW on Dumbarton at double figure odds is probably the best bet.

**Nos 7 Wins ( Ningara ) so the big priced Dutch Wins and PPL smashed it so happy Days ;)

RACE 5 : PERSEPOLIS - 1st @ 1.28 **
Small field maiden for older horses and although just the 4 runners this is a headache with 2 Hannon runners , the form horse of Persepolis and the returning Key Appointment from Paul Cole which had run the very useful Queensbury Rules to 3L in April.
PERSEPOLIS had been smashed over 1m4f but had run very well over this shorter trip either side and looks the very obvious form choice coming in with a proper rating in the eighties and will prove very hard to beat but at 1.18 offers no form or type of a bet although i will be having a dabble with PPL.

**Hardly a surprise as it coasts home , cant take any plaudits for that....

RACE 6 : ITS TABOO - Unplaced **
Finally we round off with a very tight and confusing Hcap over 7f with a field that wouldnt look out of place racing at Kempton in December with most of these either inconsistent , out of form or garbage.
My main bet here will be a LAY on Tight Fit as i dont think this stays 7f and is a very average sprinter at best.
What can or will win??...For me i think the safest bet is an EW on ITS TABOO, 2nd lto after not getting a clear run and having to switch sharply then having to be re-galvanized to run on again and just getting done by a head on the nod and a similar run would put it right in the mix and Sheik The Reigns could be worth a tickle at Decent odds for a spec EW punt.

Thats it for my warm up card as i start my process of getting back on the saddle and off the wagon , some good looking cards for the evening races means its gonna be a busy day, have fun all...ttfn x ;)
** Tight Fit Wins ( although i managed to trade a good bit back on the Photo Market )...

Back From me Jollies ...

and soon ready to rock ;)....

One for today.....

Darley July Cup (British Champions Series And Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1)6f

• (3yo+, 6f, Class 1, 12 runners)
• Winner £283,550 2nd £107,500 3rd £53,800 4th £26,800 5th£13,450 6th £6,750
• Going: Good to Firm
• Surface: Turf

..






                                            

Can SOCIETY " ROCK " ??....

Well quite simply my answer is yes , will he win today ? , quite simply i think YES ...ok but what leads you ( me ) to think he can reverse recent form?....this is why?..

If you watch the lto run he was travelling wrong side of the draw was switched right across from behind the pack and at this stage Kirby had " stole the race " and he simply couldnt get back up quick enough butu comfortably beat the rest and he had beaten him cosily the time before when ridden up behind him and not spotting him such a lead.
Lets look at Society Rocks form and last 5 runs from the last Year...

1.As we have stated lto this had a rough ride, switched and imo was given a poor ride and left too much to do but was a good 2nd in the scheme of things and ridden more prominently would have been closer if not winning.

2.Beat a world class field in the 17 runner Duke of York stakes on ground he loves beating a few he meets today including Lethal Force.

3.Was 5th behind Maarek in the Champion Stakes but still only beaten a few heads and he simply couldnt pick up and quicken on the soft ground., although a decent enough run this is easy to write off.

4.Won the Betfred Sprint Cup again beating a lot of old rivals but again proved he likes the ground to be racing as rattling quick as possible.

5.3rd in last years July Cup  ( todays race ) comfortably beating world class Ortensia but also easily dismissed by Mayson however on this day Society Rock reared in the stalls and was on his toes all day before and raced keen and never looked happy so coming 3rd when clearly not in the mood was a good run...and this was on Heavy Ground....another reason that makes this run look even better.

All the big guns have questions to answer , Slade & Sole Power both have proven to be not quite good enough over this 6f trip as they are full on speed whores, Shea Shea is completely unproven over the trip and it must be doubtful as to whether or not he will stay a fast run 6f on a stiff track with a uphill finish? , Gale Force Ten hits flat spots in his races and this will be a real problem and i simply cant see it winning , Shamexpress has yet to prove hes arrived with any ability intact and the remainder look to be just making up the numbers bar the two i feel will be the most dangerous and they are Old Enemy Lethal Force who will make a race of it regardless and if given an easy lead could pinch it again but they will be wiser this time but cannot be discounted and the much overlooked HAMZA a horse that runs very quick over 6f is very consistent and can make all....it could be a battle royale between these two.

On a perfect day on perfect ground in an ideal race with pace a plenty everything is set up for Society to Rock n Roll up the hill and take this.

Summary :

WIN - SOCIETY ROCK - 
EW - HAMZA - 
LONG - LETHAL FORCE - 

...............Now time for some beers ;))

The Matty Rawrrrr Quick Piks...

YORK

RACE 1. : SMARTY SOCKS - EW
Impossible to guess when she is in the mood but is perfectly capable of winning if in the right frame of mind, at double figure odds this well worth a bash.

RACE 2 : SUN CENTRAL - WIN
Tough race with both Montaser and Songcraft looking capable of striking but Sun Central looks ripe for this on perfect ground.

RACE 3 : EXPERT FIGHTER -EW
A typical runner from godolphin, races at a few gaff tracks, steps up on the AW and is ready to pounce off a low looking mark even tho it routed a strong looking field lto pulling double.

RACE 4 : HOOF IT - WIN
This is a ton clear and if ready for action after a year off will piss this as its a bit special , but with bigger fish to fry this may used as a warm up and a place lay as cover is advised.

RACE 5 : BRAZOS - WIN
I think Fahey really wants to win this but Clive Brittain has this son of Clodovil in and it should win if building on a solid looking fto run.

RACE 6 : BIG TIME BILLY - WIN
This is a cracking runner for the red hot Bowen yard and SDS is a smart recuit to have riding, this has racked up a 6 timer under both codes and its lto win showed it is still massively on the upgrade, rock solid bet.

RACE 7: LANARK : WIN
Another good ride for SDS who could have a field day here , did shite all in the Coventry but did look useful prior to that and this steep drop in class is what is needed.

York Advice : Front runners do well here , northern trainers strike well and CD winners even if out of form return to form here..

Have a great day.

Adios Amigo's

Thats it now till the 24th as im taking Friday off to sort all my shizzle out, bags packed etc and generally chill as im in full wind down mode now ;)......Smash the Lantern ;) , have Fun and play nice..TTFN x

Newmarket July Meeting ;)

                                           

Well Howdy folks!! , its two days to me summer Jollies and im stoked but before i go i get to enjoy a couple of days of racing Nirvana that is Newmarket ( HQ ) and tmrw we have a card that would befit and super Saturday!!...superb stuff with some right ol class out n about...gotta love racing when its this mouth wateringly good and i feel some el lumpo bets coming on for tmrw...Im not going to do a full card for tmrw instead i will just give a glimpse of what i like in each of the first 6 races....

RACE 1 :
FEEL LIKE DANCING : 1st @ 4.15
I have to stick with this as i feel their is a big win in this and it almost had it lto but was just done by Leading Light over 2m in the Group 1 Queens Vase at Royal Ascot and this 1m5f will be no problem but it will need a strong pace or will have to take the brave route from the front as this lacks some toe in acceleration but does have a high cruising speed and stays and Buick should be looking to make this as tough a test as possible , current price of 4.40 is only fair  , anything under 5.2 and it has to be a Win bet likewise anything over and it becomes a max EW ( Std WP 30/70 ).

RACE 2:
I have reviewed, replayed and adjudged every fraction run by these and every way i do it the same three come out on top by a clear margin and they are ( in no order ) ..
CANYARI :
FIGURE OF SPEECH : 2nd @ 5.28
ASTAIRE :
These three look well above average have all run and won in very good times, they will like the ground but i cant split them however at the current and expected prices there is plenty of room for a 3 way dutch ( Current prices a dutch Pays 2.42 which i think is a sensational bet ).

RACE 3:
WILD COCO : NON RUNNER
I have been waiting for this to run all season, a quirky madam that has been beset with training issues ( 5 yrs old with just 7 runs ) but has run in Class 1 last 5 times and has won 4/7 including the last two and obviously has a good deal of both ability and scope and this is currently a beautiful looking 6.60 which is some price considering the way it blew aprt its fields in both the Lilly Langtry and Park Hill ( Slamming Royal Ascot 3rd and Pretty Polly winner Ambivalent along with Gallipot et al ) , if this is fit and well it wins..simple, if its last two runs were just say 4 weeks ago then this would be no more than 6/4-7/4 so to say your getting 6.60 for a proven group /Class winner over a trip and ground it loves just because its coming off a break...well your mad if you dont consider it., for me its a Max EW.

RACE 4 :
SPACE SHIP : Unplaced > Garbage run and race...
This is arguably the toughest race of the day and you really should try and find something in double figures in this as its wide open and Space Ship comes in at 10.0 to just about be my selection, i had previously slated this as a bit of a rogue as it had looked like a non trier but its gallant place in the King George V stakes at Ascot  ( was 2L in front of Cap o Rushes who then ran a good 4th in the Irish Derby ) has led me to alter my ranking of this and i think its upto winning a race of this nature and stature, my alternate in this for a fun ew would be Royal Prize with Quinn riding for Beckett.

RACE 5:
ORIEL : 3RD @ 3.18
A good looking maiden with some powerful yards and big names about But Oriel was Hughes chosen mount for the Queen Mary in which it never really got going but its earlier 2nd when badly hampered, impeded and blocked looked good and Richard ( Jockey ) must have felt he was on a good un before and is staying true to his beliefs and i will take that tip in itself and follow suit although i do feel 2.80 is plenty skinny enough....i will be hoping for a drift as i will be plumping for some bfsp action.

RACE 6 : 
MONTRIDGE : ( NAP ) : 1ST @ 1.69
This is a horse i really really like , first time out in a maiden it smashed useful yardstick Pythagorean by 6L ..going away , then on its next run it beat multiple Stakes winner Baltic Knight by a head  ( cosy ) , on its 3rd run  and its first try over todays trip of 1m it was badly hampered but still ran on only to be denied in the dying strides by eventual Irish Derby Winner Trading Leather ( only beaten 1/2L ) but still pissed all over the likes of Glory Awaits and Galileo Rock ( 3rd in UK Derby & 2nd in Irish Derby ) ,On its 4th run ( seasonal debut ) it was woolly and lethargic and in a small 5 runner field was comfortably held into 3rd by 98 rated Guest of Honour so with that run under its belt it took on Al Waheb in the Heron Stakes another 4 runner small field falsely run race took place however this time it absolutely demolished them winning as he liked beating 94 rated Mango Diva by an easy 4L , and finally its last run was over an inadequate 7f in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot where it ran 2nd just getting done in the shadow of the post by Gale Force Ten , so back upto 1m here in this field this has MAX BET , UBER NAP written all over it and i will be absolutely shocked if this doesnt win.

SO there you have it, some fascinating races, and some wonderful bets to be had.....come on boys n girls Fill them boots ;)))...TTFN X