Thursday, 25 July 2013

Thursday @ Sandown

                                              

Well this wasnt quite the scene i faced upon my arrival home  ( as i was led to believe ) but the storms had arrived but........oh my how i loved the coolness of the night breeze blowing onto me after 11 Days of 40° + heat!!....it was divine ;) , had a cracking time away meeting a great fam from Barnsley and having a hoot with one of my special highlights having a running race down Benidorm Island against my 19 yr old Son ( smashed it ;) ) but was crazy sweating upon reaching the bottom....it is also a tragic shame they feel the need to make all the fun rides and stuff ( jet skis, banana boat etc ) so bloody expensive ( £300 for fam for a half day ) !! but we did manage to make our own mischief which was a good deal cheaper , the Hotel was ok , the food was appalling and the entertainment was abysmal ( worse than ) but again we managed to enjoy with some good company and took advantage of all the free beer, wine and spirits.
So onto the racing...well it takes me a couple of days to straighten me arrows so i went easy today but struck solid with 4 bets and 4 wins and im gonna do a research card for Sandown tmrw to get my head " back in the game " as i prepare for a mouthwatering Glorious Goodwood and more importantly Doncaster on Aug 3rd ( My Dream Woman is going so i best get a good card sorted !! )...

So without further ado....lets crack on.....

SANDOWN

RACE 1 : SHAMSON - ( MAX NAP ) - 1st @ 1.88
A nice n Easy 4 runner race to solve , a 2yr old maiden over 5f  with Dream Sika looking a pile of shit this brings them down to 3 runners.
The one to focus on here tho has to be the £420,000 son of Invincible Spirit from the Hannon Yard and being ridden by the owners retained and newly appointed Jockey Frankie Dettori SHAMSON and even at the current 1.81 i think this is outstanding value , everything points to a 1st time out victory and it will be a shock if it gets rumbled.

RACE 2 : ARBAAH - UNPLACED**
Now we have a 6 runner Hcap over the odd distance of 1m6f which catches a few untested out and this does look a very tight knit group with all of them arriving in some type of form.
None have winning form at the trip but all have some decent form at either 1m4f, 1m5f or like Debdebdeb at 1m6f so all will be expected to handle the trip and the ground.
I think Deficit easily has the weakest form on offer and is readily overlooked along with Debdebdeb who i feel may struggle racing off a career high mark ( is improving but will have to find another 10-12lb over a trip she only just gets ) so that brings us down to four.
Both Sizzler and Portmonarch are interesting but both have to find a little more than their current best runs and both seem to lack in a finish which may catch them out here so this leaves me with 2 ARBAAH and LADY PIMPERNEL but Lady Pimpernel although out of Sir Percy does seem weak on the stamina side so it is with great reluctance that i veer towards the son of Invasor as the most likely winner as its 2nd ( 2 runs ago ) has been boosted with the winner going in again and then it won lto over 1m5f going away and will enjoy the quicker ground ( on breeding ) so for me its ARBAAH to win and Debdebdeb is a big Stat Lay.

**DEBDEBDEB Won in a frantic finish beating Lady Pimpernel ( At race off was the Stat Lay @ 3.68 Fav ) , Debdebdeb enjoyed the trip, stayed really well and did improve and is good on this evidence for another 12lb so any future rises wont bother her and could be worth following in similar graded races with the 2nd looking a future winner in waiting after trying to make all, the remainder was easily beaten.

RACE 3 : QAWASEEM - 2nd @ 3.50 ( Done at 1.05 )**
Now we have a very tight looking Class 1 Listed Fillies race over 7f with every runner carrying a win into the race and the fact there is little distance winning form will make little difference in this.
This is a proper puzzle to solve with three Arab bluebloods ( 2 x Dolphin and 1 x Maktoum ) plus a good looking sort from Hannon and a free running, front running sort from the Tate yard however i feel that may struggle to contain this better quality field over further so is ticked off and Rasheeda could run better now in a slightly easier race with the remainder left out of my early calculations.
QAWAASEM was easily accounted for by Lamar fto but ran slowly off the pace and then ( under tender handling ) ran on at the end showing to be very green and with this experience ran all over the field in her maiden nto beating Valonia and the very highly rated Oriel with ease and this looks a natural improver that could be anything although rather annoyingly its the current 3.85 Fav and they have a poor record in this and this isnt great value.
Both the Dolphin runners are worth a look and make for an interesting Dutch and could be used as a break even saver if backing Qawaseem ( 3 way Dutch pays just under 2.0 and is not great value and a with profit Dutch paying a slightly better 2.58 ) and having a " fun " punt on Ifrika & Rasheeda at huge odds is not as daft as it seems.

**Qawaseem led for most of this but just couldnt hold on and got nabbed on the line after hitting an incred 1.05 in running!!! , with the winner being the Dolphin runner Majeyda @ 4.03 ( Dutch was good ).

RACE 4 : DUMBARTON - 3rd ( hampered )
Now its back to the Hcaps and this small field racing over 1m2f looks another trappy affair and the Fav Ducab is worth taking on here as this trip tests its stamina to the max and has shown to be a bit paceless at the end of his races although can stay on well without quickening and the trio of Dumbarton , Sadiq and Master Ming will give him plenty to think about.
Now im not saying that Ducab Cannot win only that i feel at 3.0 its worth taking on ( Laying a horse at 2/1 with 3 viable challengers in a small field is good value ) and Master Ming is a rather big 50.0 although it will do well at the weights to reverse form with Ningara and the bet here is probably a speculative dutch on 2,5,6 & 7 at very big odds ( not for me tho as this is a max plus PPL race ), With a gun to my head i would probably say an EW on Dumbarton at double figure odds is probably the best bet.

**Nos 7 Wins ( Ningara ) so the big priced Dutch Wins and PPL smashed it so happy Days ;)

RACE 5 : PERSEPOLIS - 1st @ 1.28 **
Small field maiden for older horses and although just the 4 runners this is a headache with 2 Hannon runners , the form horse of Persepolis and the returning Key Appointment from Paul Cole which had run the very useful Queensbury Rules to 3L in April.
PERSEPOLIS had been smashed over 1m4f but had run very well over this shorter trip either side and looks the very obvious form choice coming in with a proper rating in the eighties and will prove very hard to beat but at 1.18 offers no form or type of a bet although i will be having a dabble with PPL.

**Hardly a surprise as it coasts home , cant take any plaudits for that....

RACE 6 : ITS TABOO - Unplaced **
Finally we round off with a very tight and confusing Hcap over 7f with a field that wouldnt look out of place racing at Kempton in December with most of these either inconsistent , out of form or garbage.
My main bet here will be a LAY on Tight Fit as i dont think this stays 7f and is a very average sprinter at best.
What can or will win??...For me i think the safest bet is an EW on ITS TABOO, 2nd lto after not getting a clear run and having to switch sharply then having to be re-galvanized to run on again and just getting done by a head on the nod and a similar run would put it right in the mix and Sheik The Reigns could be worth a tickle at Decent odds for a spec EW punt.

Thats it for my warm up card as i start my process of getting back on the saddle and off the wagon , some good looking cards for the evening races means its gonna be a busy day, have fun all...ttfn x ;)
** Tight Fit Wins ( although i managed to trade a good bit back on the Photo Market )...


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