Wednesday, 31 July 2013

Oh Lillie lush ;P... ( Day 3 Goodwood )...


Well i must say Weds was a much better day both for me and the Blog as my one mega bet cleaned up and at very good odds and as i thought Toranado gained compensation by beating strong travelling Dawn Approach in a somewhat cheeky fashion and the win at worst can be described as cosy and we countered that with hitting the last 3 winners to make it 4 on the day with 3 seconds in the others and tbh the races we didnt win we had excuses or hard luck stories to tell, L Miller in the first ran well but just got outstayed by uber improver Broxbourne then in the 2nd race Excess Knowledge got a pig of a ride to come 2nd in the end but really should have won that and was the best horse in the race in the 4th Outstrip looked every bit the winner when streaking 4L clear inside the furlong only to get done on the line by the very impressive Toormore ( Hannon / Hughes ) so i think myself a tad unlucky in that ( even tho Parbold which ran on for 3rd was very disappointing ) but ultimately it was a very good day and a profitable one, i didnt quite match in winnings the losses from yesterday ( TUES ) but i am certainly in far better shape than before the day begun.

I have been a lot more restrained today and a lot more my old professional self and happier with it , now we into Day 3 and we have the usual scenario, first 4 races all quality and the last 3 are magic pin specials...imvho we should limit all races to a max of 16 ( 12 for me ) as these luckfests are only any good for the bookie and are very off putting for your run o the mill punter after all who really wants to stick there hard earned on something that amounts to either the fav or not much more than a guess , say what you want but the reality is in these 20+ runner races getting the winner requires a far higher degree of luck than skill and using implied odds to make a book in these gives you a 20/1 Favourite..which is total bollocks and pretty much sums up these...the bookies love em, i hate them , no real value in doing fuck all, cant really lay, shouldnt be backing, in running is bollocks as too much happens late on and the markets are fucked up so maybe some pre race trading but that kills my soul...imo if you had the same race but with the best or top rated 12 then you would have a better race, a better market and the same amount would be wagered only now the punter has a chance and the EW markets become fruitful and those that dont make it can race in other races where the opposition is pauce and the shit can be sent into claimers where they belong....

Anyway thats me rant over , lets move onto Day 3 Proper and see if we can get a smash n grab out of the first four races....




SUMMARY : Gordons Hcap over 1m1f for 3 yr olds and this looks ultra competitive with just about all these coming here with recent winning form  and all look to have a chance of sorts this is a very tough start to the day...
Without a doubt tho THE CLASS in this race is THA'IR who last year Ran Toranado to less than 3L was also beaten just 3/4L by Group Winner Olympic Glory , Beaten just a Head in the Solario by Fantastic Moon and had Won the Chesham beating some fair sorts and although he seemed a bit disappointing this term after two rather lackluster runs he showed his real class lto when easily accounting for the rapidly improving ( and winner since ) Sennockian Star and now he has found his heart could easily prove half a stone better than these who although good for their grade are no more than decent Hcappers and Tha'ir is Pattern Class at his worst and Full group Class at his best and for me will win this comfortably if reproducing his best form and the thought of getting 8.2 or more excites me greatly.

*Broughton wins for MJ and this was my original EW selection but i rather foolishly went against my own ratings ( even max laid Code of Honour )...i made a good profit from the Lay but i should have stuck with the eventual winner., Tha'ir was very disappointing after having every chance but just threw a strop.

LONG - THUNDER STRIKE - 3rd @ 12.0

SUMMARY : Now its the Richmond Stakes a good race for 2 yr olds over 6f that has been won by a couple of decent types but is usually won by something no better than group 2 and a run of around 96-105 is usually good enough to take this and there are a few that look good enough to run to that level or more.
Firstly we should mention THUNDER STRIKE from the hot as a Poker Richard Hannon who has won this 4 times in the last 5 Years ( and His Master of War was only just touched off into 2nd last year to stop the 5 timer ) , this comes into this on merit tho as it rattled up a good hat trick before finding life too tough in the Coventry but still ran a very good race coming 4th and then did absolutely fuck all when as a 1/2f come last of 5 ( 5/5 ) and ran as tho something was amiss but was scoped and nothing found so that may be an anomaly and Hannon wouldn't be running it if it wasn't 100% but that last run has sown the seeds of doubt and for now i be looking elsewhere.
Parbold is entered but after Wednesday's Run i will be very surprised if he takes it up and even if he does i would leave alone as this looks like it needs 7f or even 1m now.
FIGURE OF SPEECH for me looks the likeliest winner after winning a nothing maiden then ran beyond his experience and years in coming 2nd in the July Stakes and this could be a bit special with improvement to come from each angle and this has to be a strong player here.
Finally i think we should have ANDHESONTHERUN on our side as this won in a very very quick time lto and a repeat of that would put him in the top three for sure and he can win if running to that level with even the most meager of improvement.

*Figure of speech stumbled out of the stalls and was chasing after losing a lot there and then ran on for 4th but was never going to win after that start, is imo still the best horse in the race.

WIN - ALTANO - 2nd @ 11.8
LONG - BOYS IN BLUE **- 3rd @ 15.60 ( Ahzeemah )

SUMMARY : The Artemis now , a tough race over 2m for 3+ yr olds and this field ios one packed with nearly or has been horses and rather unfortunately most are running to a similar level which makes the selection process that little bit harder.
There are also a host of runners that are yet to tackle the trip so quite a lot of trust is being given to most here not least BROWN PANTHER ( 1st @ 7.83 ) who has the form and profile to win and looks as tho he will make into a good stayer IF he stays...Yes if he does then he has an outstanding chance...ifs n butts everywhere...
With the Boys in Blue holding all the aces today i feel they could easily be landing this especially with three runners all of which look good enough to win and have the form to back this up and this really does add spice to a race that is already a conundrum inside a paradox of an enigma...
CAUCUS ran really well when winning the Coral Marathon over 2m lto and will be right up there come mix time and is worth more than a cautionary note, Finally we have possibly the most interesting runner in ALTANO and another possible winner from Ze Fatherland as these German stayers have proved as adept as the Aussies are at Sprinting and this had a taking run lto running on like a train after nodding off half way round and with more forceful tactics applied will be a major player here.

WIN - WILD COCO - ( NAP ) - 1st @ 1.91
EW -

SUMMARY : The Lillie Langtry Stakes a wonderfully named race and quite a tricky one over 1m6f a trip that most cant get or the stayers are not quick enough for..this is a special trip and not many truly get it.
However tough this may look i am looking no further than todays NAP in WILD COCO who is not only a distance winner ( only one of two ) but a CD winner as this cracking but tough to train ( injury prone but now lightly raced ) mare won this very race last year and interestingly is also German Bred.
Wild Coco absolutely trotted up last year running away at the finish to win with ease and was pulled a couple of weeks ago from a race with indifferent ground and this would always have been the main aim and right now i see no way that this loses , Highest rated by some way ( at least 10lb in hand ) , CD winner who will love the ground from a stable that continues in great form racing against largely inferior animals over a trip most have never tried or failed at....i cannot see any further than this.

*Very EASY ;)


SUMMARY : Now its a 20 runner maiden...QUICK RUN FOR THE HILLS!!....this is just plain bonkers but lets see what we can do...
First on my list is REGARDEZ from a sire ive been tracking some time and has had a good deal of success lately ( Champs Elysees )  and the Beckett team know how to ready a juvenile and Crowley is an ace pilot so this should run well.
The next two on my breeders list radar are RADIATOR and TENDER EMOTION.

*5th , 8th and 9th..

WIN - PYTHAGOREAN - 2nd @ 4.86

SUMMARY : Now we have a 16 runner Hcap over 7f that again looks very tricky although PYTHAGOREAN must have a big chance if running to his very best along with Muharrib and HOMAGE.
Not one market leader has won this in 10 years. Homage will be vying for favouritism after just failing to complete a hat-trick at Sandown but a high draw won't help. Majestic Moon is improving fast and is just 6lb higher than his latest success at Newmarket. He's well enough drawn as is Shafaani, the winner of two of his last three and not beaten far in Listed company in March. MUHARRIB came up against a smart performer in Law Enforcement at Newmarket and couldn't have done much better. He'll be suited by the drop in trip and can go one better though Pythagorean, who had Majestic Moon behind when scoring at Leicester in May, endured a desperately unlucky run at Sandown last time and connections will be expecting compensation..

*Beaten on the line even tho it traded as 1.50 Fav in the Foty market...;P

LONG - REE'S RASCAL - 2nd @ 11.60

SUMMARY : And to finish both me and the card off is an 18 runner Hcap over 1m1f for the oldies and for Apprentice riders....sigh. Copperwood has won 14 of his 97 races and probably hasn't finished yet despite being beaten here on Tuesday when he completely missed the break. His previous run at Epsom, where he made all with the favourite Highland Duke a length back in third, suggests he will be competitive here. Commend has flattered to deceive but has dropped to a winnable mark and has to be respected along with Xinbama, whose two recent victories have been at Epsom. Mean It has done really well on soft ground and looks well enough treated to run a big race but the vote goes to REE'S RASCAL, who was a bit unlucky at this fixture a year ago and has bounced back to form with a Newbury victory and a good second to Gaul Wood at Windsor...


So there we have it..another stupidly tough day with a tremendous looking NAP....two or three bets is the max for today with some cheap exotics thrown in..enjoy..ttfn x.


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