Friday, 26 July 2013

Big Friday Warm Up ;)

Well yesterday was a good day over all with some solid wins and some solid profits come in, not a winner in every race but a profit from most and its profit that really matters ;)...
Sometimes its not just about selecting a winner because the real skill is understanding a race and how the race should be run and getting that right for me is just as enjoyable as picking out the outright winner , ok there is no glory in that as the work a day " punter 2 just wants to lump on every " good thing " in the hope of scoop after scoop but the reality is ...that doesnt happen that often and the key to staying ahead is not what you bet but how you bet and how your bets are staked , hitting a few losers but coming out even stevens is a result in mine and anyone elses book and when you get that winner it is all profit not a refill on earlier losses and thats how you move ahead...
Understanding the key mechanics behind a market and understanding your own expectations is vital in attaining a profit , too many " mug punters " simply look at selections ( there own or others ) and nip into the bookies splash out some cash and then are surprised , disappointed or both if they havent won the Jackpot....it just doesnt work like that , Multi combo bets require a great deal of luck ( even my own with 2 or 3 selections per race ) , Placepots are the same, back favs and it pays shite , back the roughies and you need your fingers crossed but if you do hit it will pay big but the frequency or chance of winning is much less and much lower, using Online books like Betfair allows you to Back and Lay ( arbing , hedging , trading , laying off ) and this should allow the " Modern " Punter to adapt a new method of punting in both the single and Ew markets and for the Multis ( have a Yankee with 3 winners and 1 to go....Lay that third at fair odds for a good return ) , the options for attaining a profit on any given race are almost limitless these days and all you need is some nous , patience and discipline .
Dont get me wrong i like to " lump on " a few at times but these come from a secondary pot ( explained elsewhere ) and these bets feed my gambling need allowing me to focus on the important aspect of " making money "..;).
We have a cracking couple of days racing coming up as we speed towards Glorious Goodwood and these new betting methods shud be practiced now , open up a Betfair account using the Advert above ( if you dont have one ) deposit and start...stop using the retail fobot shops and start making some money!!.
This part lecture/part tutorial/part rant was bought to you and sponsored by youwontlistensowhydoibother.com.

So Friday...yes we have a couple of very nice looking day cards and a couple of excellent looking Evening cards so i think i will do a card for ASCOT during the day and possibly Newmarket for the evening if time allows ( plus i shall glance over York as well as my friend Ross is going ).

ASCOT

RACE 1

WIN - PSYCHOMETRY - 2nd @ 6.40
EW - LIKLIEHOOD -
LONG - STEALTH MISSILE -

SUMMARY : A very very tough looking 18 runner 2 yr old Maiden starts the day off and this looks big in quality and quantity with some very well bred sorts about and just a few with any form or experience.
The three with the best recent form all ran reasonably well with two getting placed ( 2nd & 3rd ) however they were easily beaten and both were running on after running green early on so should improve but the runs were only to a level of around 67 - 69 and i am expecting a run of 82-88 here so i find it highly unlikely that they will be good enough on that evidence and have to be overlooked.
The two Abdulla horses look very interesting with the Half Sister to the very useful Dundonnell  ( 1st @ 10.40 )carrying the second colours behind Likliehood who is related to Treble Jig and both of these could ( in races like this everything is taken on trust and one can only use the data available ) be in the mix ( or run flat if without chances at halfway ).
Placidia is very exciting being a progeny of the majestic Sea The Stars and out of a Dam that has a degree of success and this could prove very good but the jury is still out thus far regarding STS's off spring....
PSYCHOMETRY  ( 2nd ) look very good ( will be paddock watching ) and is from a sire i very much like and Niarchos is deserving of having a classic entry for next year after such staunch support of UK racing and with Moore taking the ride i feel this could be the answer.
Stealth Missile is very well bred and Clive Brittain likes to take on the big boys and has had one or two mega stars go thru his hands ( Pebbles ) and it would be no  surprise to see this go well at big odds.
Then We have Tea in Transvaal for the all conquering Hannon/Hughes team and this is sure to be thereabouts being by Teofolio. ( 3rd )...so plenty to think about.
**I have had a " word " that Mutatis Mutandis should go well at huge odds, ripe n ready to race early on and currently 70.0**.

*Not really a race to be betting on , gun, bullet etc i would say EW on Psychometry.
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RACE 2

WIN - MR MATTHEWS -
EW - RIZAL PARK -
LONG - STORMY PARADISE - 1st @ 7.24

SUMMARY : Now we have a small field 7 runner Nursery for 2yr olds over 6f and this looks a lot easier to solve although from 7 runners we have a big shortlist of four that will be involved in the finish and they are BANADEER , RIZAL PARK , STORMY PARADISE & MR MATTHEWS and on my speed figures there is very little to separate these and i would doubt if there is much more than 2L splitting them all at the line.

*Laying Banadeer at 2.38 is the Value bet in this.
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RACE 3

WIN - HOMERIC - 2nd @ 2.82
EW - MAWAQEET -
LONG - N/A -

SUMMARY : Another small field ( 6 runners ) but this time over a specialist trip of 2m in which HOMERIC must have a leading chance being a CD winner and only faltered lto after finding the 2m4f too far at Ascot and looks a good bet at 3.9.
Mawaqeet looks to be a leading player after a fine lto run at York in a fairly decent race and does stay this trip very well.
Mysterious Man could get involved after his lto run when only folding in the final 50 yards over 2m4f however it had ran in a quicker race over 1m5f and did the same in that suggesting this is a smooth travelling sort that finds little off the bridle but could prove good for trading.
Broxbourne and Desert Recluse both look to have too much on here as this represents a big step up in class and Highland Castle would need to regain the form of 2011 just to be in the mix and trhis therefore leaves this looking ripe for the taking with Homeric the most likely winner.

*Straight WIN bet on Homeric.
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RACE 4

WIN - AUCTION -
EW - ANNECDOTE -
LONG - LIGHT UP MY LIFE -

SUMMARY : Next up is a nice looking Listed Event over 1m for the Fillies ( older ) and this looks competitive with most arriving with some form of form and all having back form to get involved.
Zibelina ( 1st @ 22.8 ) is very interesting having just the one run in a egg n spoon Maiden but did win it by 10L without breaking sweat  and is bred to be useful so could be anything but the fact that its 3rd string is enough for me to leave although when they arrive mob handed they do sometimes win with the lesser fancied runner.**
AUCTION has to be the big fancy here after rattling up a damn good hat trick and then running very well in defeat and with being a tad unlucky after being hampered and bumped lto and a big run is assured  although old adversary Annecdote will not be easy to beat as this is on the upgrade and will run well again.
And another form tie in gives us Light up My Life who should run better now tackling this less undulating course as this is closely matched up with Auction.

*EW on AUCTION
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RACE 5

WIN - SENNOCKIAN STAR - 1st @ 1.95
EW - VIEWPOINT -
LONG - N/A -

SUMMARY : Another small field with this 4 runner race over 1m2f for the older sorts and any of the four can win....very tight but i do fancy SENNOCKIAN STAR in this and its lto run behind T'hair ( beaten 1/2L ) was very good, stays the trip well, likes the ground, is in form from an in form yard and jockey and really looks the one they have to beat.


*Straight WIN bet on Sennockian Star.
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RACE 6

WIN - LANGLEY VALE -
EW - GLADIATRIX - 2nd @ 6.13
LONG - GABBIANO - 1st @ 3.68

SUMMARY : We round the day off with a pinstickers Hcap which as stated is wide open...
Best Be Careful has slipped down the weights since winning this contest last year but is hard to fancy here racing from out of the handicap. GLADIATRIX has gone close on a couple of occasion this year. She finished ahead of Rowe Park, Diamond Charlie and Muhdiq when third at Sandown in June and a repeat may be good enough to land this. Gabbiano found only one too good in a higher grade sprint over 6f here a fortnight ago but the drop back to the minimum trip is a worry and the same can be said of Langley Vale. Irish Boy escapes a penalty for winning an apprentices race over 5f at Doncaster last time but this is much tougher...

*3 way dutch.
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