Monday, 29 July 2013

TMRW is the start of probably my Favourite week...

                                                   





Yes its that time, its GLORIOUS GOODWOOD a week that for me holds some very special memories , yes it doesnt have quite the class and spectacle of Royal Ascot nor the Prize Money of Champions Day but its close to me..why?...for me this was the start pretty much of my Journey into Horse Racing i got a taste for it when in my local boozer ( aged 16 ) and watched the utterly brilliant ( but limited to 1m only ) WARNING charge away with the Sussex stakes , that lit the flame and i was hooked ( Starkey and Harwood did me some great turns ) and then the following year ( Warning wained a bit here and was not helped for being run in the wrong races , although tbf none of todays cowboys had to race against the likes of Indian Skimmer , Nashwan or Miesque in fact even Doyoun would eat most of todays runners alive ) the mighty ZILZAL won the Sussex stakes beating a high class field that included Warning  , Markofdistinction and Shaadi ( but after seeing him win his maiden by an incredible 10L you knew this was special ) and with it i have always held a fondness for this meeting and this year looks to have a cracking race on its hands again when Toranado takes on Dawn Approach again in what shud be a cracking renewal.

                     

So lets take a good look at the Opening day...

RACE 1

WIN - FAST OR FREE -
EW - VASILY -
LONG - NABUCCO - 2nd @ 9.20

SUMMARY : A very tough 1m1f 18 Runner Hcap to start the meeting and day off and it is one that requires the use of ones " Lucky Pin "..No favourite has won this in the past ten years and the shortest priced winner was 7/1. Mark Johnston has won it three times in that period and relies on the tough Fennell Bay, who is just 3lb higher than when scoring at Thirsk last month and ran well at the meeting a year ago, and Reset City, whose two victories to date have come in lower grade handicaps. Fast Or Free is likely to start market leader despite an absence since landing the Brittannia Handicap at Royal Ascot last year. He won first time out last season and is probably pattern race class though he's up 9lb and this is a very tough race to make a return. Hi There has been racing as though this sort of trip was needed and is just 6lb higher than when scoring at Musselburgh in March so has to go on the short-list along with Nabucco, who showed his quality with a smooth victory in this grade at Newmarket last month, and Blue Surf, though the latter could do with more rain. WHISPERING WARRIOR has more to find but looks capable of doing so despite an 8lb rise for his victory at Newcastle. He's now won five of his last six and a mark of 93 could be underestimating him..


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RACE 2

WIN - THE SUPPLICANT -
EW - AMBIANCE - 3rd @ 11.5
LONG - REROUTE -

SUMMARY : The Molecomb Stakes , a good race over 5f for the young uns and a decent albeit only 9 runner field headed by my idea of the winner SUPPLICANT a cracking son of Kyllachy that ran a great race lto coming 2nd in the Windsor Castle Stakes and having backed this in all 3 runs this season i see no reason to desert it just yet as this is still improving and enjoying every outing and will surely be up there and i will be surprised if this doesnt place.
AMBIANCE did nothing in France lto ( Papin ) but had run very well prior to that getting placed in the Norfolk and should be in the mix come the final 1f.
REROUTE is also very interesting for Ed Walker which won its maiden in taking fashion fto and then ran the very good Rizeena to just 4L in the Queen Mary and has a lot more scope than a lot of these and could run a big race at very decent odds.
History has shown us that the " form " horses and those higher rated tend to do much better as its a race more concerned with ability than weight or circumstance.

*Hannon 1-2 with again the " Rag " winning - Supplicant got a very poor ride from Ryan Moore ( 4th )
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RACE 3

WIN - ALJAMAAHEER - NON - RUNNER - ;(
EW - FENCING -
LONG - GARSWOOD - 1ST @ 3.49

SUMMARY : Now we have the Lennox Stakes over 7f and this is an odd race in that it is often won by something group class ( or close ) but does attract a lot of sprinters into the entries and most just cant get it and todays race is no difference with a raft of these most unlikely to get this trip at pace and we have a few 7f specialists to look at.
FENCING will have to be a leading player here having secured a good victory over 1m in a Listed event at Ascot and then running a good race in the JLT Lockinge running midfield but with group class runners in front and behind ( Penitent , Reply and Trumpet Major among others ) and he will enjoy the drop back to this quick 7f.
the winner tho for me could easily be ALJAMAAHEER which has almost exclusively only ever raced over 7f or 1m and has a very good profile and looks very consistent with its last 3 runs bringing back a 1st/2nd and a 3rd with defeats at short distances to Both Farhh and Declaration of War looking top class form as both had run exceptionally well in winning and this feel should def be in the places.
The unexposed class in this could be GARSWOOD after winning the European Free in good style from Emell and Lucky Beggar ( both winners since ) then a decent enough 7th in the 2000 Guineas and a better 4th in the Jersey Stakes leaves enough to ponder about, this could easily get involved or even win if improving but its a case of what if against what has...and for me What has wins..ALJAMAHEER.

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RACE 4

WIN - DUKE OF CLARENCE -
EW - ORIENTAL FOX -
LONG - MONTASER - NON RUNNER -

SUMMARY : Now we have a tough looking 1m6f Hcap with a meduuim sized field and this specialist trip catches many a good 1m4f horse out so for me proven form or ability to stay well is key and in a race like this i would rather have a good stayer over a late running quickener every time and this gives us DUKE OF CLARENCE as the first to look at ( although this defies my previous statement as this quickened up from the 1f pole to lengthen away ) which ran and won well lto over this 1m6f and will bu on the hunt from 2f out and having the excellent Hughes riding ( class at coming from off the pace ) this will be bang there i am sure.
Silver Lime i think will be right on his shoulder as this does like to race just behind the leaders and will be wanting to make a move around 2f out.
MONTASER is a funny old horse, stays all day and can run on or off the pace but is a bit of moody so n so but if in the mood could easily take this down.
Finally we have ORIENTAL FOX a horse that runs in typical MJ fashion and is as inconsistent as any in his yard a horse that likes to make all and on two of its last 3 runs has tried this tactic but has been done literally on the line both occasions but this could stretch them out and with so many not sure to stay this could easily have them off its legs .

*Harris Tweed roll back the clock with a good staying performance, making just about all AND quickening off the front from the 1f pole to run away with this..easily his best run from the last few years.
___________________________________________________ Placepot Done.
RACE 5

WIN - SACHAS PARK ( NAP ) - Unplaced 
EW -
LONG -

SUMMARY : Now we have the race im really waiting for and a horse that will either pay for my whole week or one that will mean its just beans on toast till next week...and that is SACHA PARK now i have had some monster bets this year but this will probably eclipse them all as it is so rare to ever get a genuine 97 rated Maiden running in a maiden ( 97p ) , this started its 4 run career off with a good 2nd to the highly thought off Saayerr and with that experience under its belt was sent to Ireland to contest the Listed Rochestown stakes but ran into the useful Stubbs from AoB ( beaten in 6th 8L by War Command ( this was very very impressive ) in the Coventry ) then ran a brilliant 6th in the Norfolk and i say brilliant as they all pretty much flashed passed together with the finishing distances being > nk , sh , nk , nk , 1L and sh so you see this was a frantic affair and then on its last run in a 3 runner race this went off as surprisingly the 7/4 second fav and was again beaten a neck by the 101 rated Emirates Flyer ( giving concrete caste to its 97p rating ).
So although there are a couple of others here with some decent maiden form ( in fact most of the remaining form of those that have run would be good enough to win most class 4 maidens ) the facts are this..it is very very rare to ever get a maiden winning or racing at over 100 and that is what any runner will need to do to beat Sachas Park , SP has run to its mark and is improving and its lto run will be good enough right now with improvement it wins easy by 2L or more but has shown nothing in its character to suggest this is the case and this will be getting a max lump NAP bet from me.
The remainder all look good and there is little to choose between them however Muir Lodge does spike my interest with Crowley riding for Fitri Hay and a first ride for Balding in what looks to me to be probably the toughest maiden of the year so far.

*A bit Gutted to be honest as Brazos Wins and tbh Sacha Park never looked like winning and has run at least 15lb below its rating ,...enough excuses..this was a fail..and im as disappointed as anyone..
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RACE 6

WIN - CAPTAIN CAT -
EW - JUVENAL -
LONG - DESERT REVOLUTION -

SUMMARY : Back to reality now with a monster 20 runner Hcap..Uppercut won this last year from Bancnuanaheireann and Jack's Revenge with the placed horse both claiming unlucky runs. There's little between them this time though all three are drawn high which isn't an advantage here. Mark Johnston won this with the three-year-old Yamal in 2008 so he should know how he stands with Desert Revolution, though a lack of experience won't help and the stable's Copperwood may have more of a chance as he beat Uppercut at Epsom last time. Ascription is progressing and is drawn well unlike the returning Captain Cat, a potential Group winner but facing a very stiff task after such a long absence. DEMOCRETES hasn't won as often as he should but has continued to creep up the weights. He got no sort of run in the Buckingham Palace Handicap at Ascot and hopefully things will fall into place from his low draw so he's given the nod..

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RACE 7

WIN - JEDWARD -
EW - RUSTY ROCKET -
LONG - LOST IN PARIS -

SUMMARY : And a ridiculous 5f Dash with 26 runners...time for the Pin again.
Tony Carroll loves this race and has won it twice in the past ten years including last year when he also had the third VALMINA, who is on the same mark this time, is better drawn and looks more likely to land this than stablemates Tidal's Baby and Edge Closer. Dandy Nicholls was once virtually unbeatable in sprints here and will be hoping Hamoody can relive the glory days and the veteran is no forlorn hope despite recent victories coming in much lower grade contests. Lady Gibraltar hasn't won since dead-heating with Jwala at the meeting a year ago but she's been in fine form as she showed behind Secret Asset at York. Jedward is another who hasn't won since last year but comes here in peak form having just failed to concede lumps of weight to Midnight Dynamo at Ayr. Lost In Paris comes here with a penalty after a convincing success at Catterick last week but still looks well enough treated to make his presence felt...

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Well a tough day with some very Bookie friendly races but i have my Banker in this for the week and will look forward to filling up my satchel post-with ;)...A good start to a cracking week..enjoy ;)

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