Thursday, 7 July 2011

Morning , Afternoon....

Fuck me what a lie in....feel like half the day has gone already , eyes are still misty and brain is on 75%...but thats still plenty...;-).
Start of the Fantastic Newmarket July Festival today , i will post my blog bets on here and under the race card section will post a Card for Newmarket so good luck.
This week and the meeting that is known as " Glorious Goodwood " are in fact my fav two flat meetings of the year , better than royal ascot and all the others , all the horses should be fit and ready, good racing ground , form should hold up....Great times...

So lets crack on with the Blog Bets....

NEWMARKET

13:20 : - Lay - Solar Sky - £100 @ 3.7 - Result = Unplaced = Won £100
This race is all about the top three in the betting, as Zain doesnt stay and the other two are hopelessly outclassed , On a strict formline through Nambibian , Masked Marvel has the beating of Solar Sky and Census who Ran great behind the brown Panther in the King George V stakes have this , Solar Sky who has the weakest Rating out of the three is selected on that basis to be the lay.
The lay is slightly better value than the dutch here.

Weighed In:1stMasked Marvel2/1jfFull Result  
2ndCensus (IRE)2/1jf


13:50 : - Lay - Frederick Engles - £100 @ 3.1- Result = 1st = Lost £210
This is a very stiff 6f course and FE has never raced beyond 5f , where as a couple have winning form over this trip and a couple more look more likely to improve for this trip , if this was 5f then i would make FE odds on fav easy...as he was super impressive last time out , but the way he races , coming from just off the pace to destroy his rivals is not gteed to work here , he wont be able to dominate , he cant front run , so i think he has an absolute mountain to climb to win this , if he does then you are looking at a future group winner that is for sure , but for now , i think brilliant 5f horse , untried over 6f, @ around 2/1 is a good value Lay.
**Won this very very cosily, won easy , picked up well of a very good pace , Very nice looking horse.

Weighed In:1stFrederick Engels7/4Full Result  
2ndRoman Soldier (IRE)6/4fav


14:25 : - Lay - Mijhaar - £100 @ 3.5 - Result = 2nd = Won £100
This is a slightly risky bet truth be told but the price is just on the verge of being low enough to risk it , because Mijhaar could quite simply be different Gravy to these and could absolutely hack up , mijhaar is in effect a group horse in waiting and its in a Hcap....no math required there!! , however , it has only had 3 runs , still a bit green and this is a big tough field where anything could happen and @ 3.5 im quite happy to go against it even if i do feel it is the best horse in the field.
** Mijhaar cruised through the race only to get collared by Fulgar ( who he previously beat ) they were well clear of the field and both horses should be followed.

Weighed In:1stFulgur7/1Full Result  
2ndMijhaar13/8fav
3rdLabarinto11/1
4thMalthouse (GER)16/1


WARWICK

14:15 : - Lay - Ashpan Sam - £100 @ 8.4 ( LOTD ) - Result = Unplaced = Won £100
With at least 3 better form choices and a couple of potentially smart newcomers to choose from this will find life far too tough here , not sure to stay as struggled with 6f last time and plods not quickens.

Weighed In:1stRed Alpha (IRE)9/2Full Result  
2ndRoyal Majestic4/1
3rdDickens Rules (IRE)15/2



14:50 : - Lay - Fromthestables com - £75 @ 15.0 - Result = Unplaced = Won £75
Utter Shiteness...will not win .

15:25 : - Lay - Brick Dust - £75 @ 3.35 - Result = Unplaced = Won £75
This is fav based purely on the theoretical stance that this will come on for the step up up in trip and that its dam was chocful of it ergo it must be....do me a fucking favour , its last run over 7f  was enough to make it paddle, there was nothing in that race to suggest this is a future super stayer i will never back a horse on what it may be able to do and i will always lay a horse that carries hype , this has to layed , win or lose on the grounds that it has never tried anywhere near this trip and its chances are purely guesswork from the purists.

FOLKSTONE

14:05 : - BACK - Swift Bird £75 @ 4.5 and £75 on Perfect Cracker @ 2.56 - Result = 3rd and 4th = Lost £150
This is a small Dutch , I really like the chances of Swift Bird here but Perfect cracker could be anything , the rest however look dreadful so imo one of these two should be winning this and winning well.
**Dreadful race in which the H Cecil horse improved at least 10lbs on its previous runs and form , every other horse run woefully....Very poor race.

Weighed In:1stCelestyna10/1Full Result  
2ndSemmsu (IRE)3/1



14:40 : - Place Lay - Dine Out - £50 @ 2.88 - Result = 2nd = Lost £94
Pearl Diva WILL win this, however at staggering odds on of 1/25 it is impossible to back and pointless laying , every other horse in this small field is shit , so on the basis that Pearl Diva Wins, you can l any horse for one spot..what will come second?..tbh i have no idea and will be just laying the next shortest price...which i have.
**Hit 11.0 in running lol, just got 2nd in the final few strides....Fav won as expected....Should have left this sire shite alone lol...

15:15 : - Lay - Your Gifted - £100 @ 1.93 - Result = 2nd = Won £100
May struggle to confirm form with Commandingpresence here ,was thinking about the back bet but with too many variables felt the odds on lay was the better bet.

Thats it for the blog today , was gonna do Leopardstown as well but am now saving that , so many bets, o many things to do and just not enough time....Good Luck ttfn....

Overall PnL for the Blog today is.....PROFIT OF £96-00 , Not Stellar , but Steady , a profit every day makes me happy.

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