Sunday, 13 November 2011

Yes its Sunday....

The day of rest and that's what im doing today, front of the PC , everyone has fooked of out today , so im all McCauley Culkin , its another tough day at Cheltenham and at first glance it certainly looks like a day for the favs , so i will be doing a slightly different type of card just for the day , one in which i will try to find value against the favs or explore any  , if any , weakness within the hot pots.....
Yesterday was a quite bonkers day as i ignored several stats and features that i have painstakingly put together and followed a lot of " info " yesterday most of which was shizzle , i have spoken to Henderson this morning and he offered no reasons for why his horses are generally under performing ( quanativeasing the exception but he couldn't explain the improved run either! ) , the stable is fine , no illness and they are all fit for this time of year ,and although many are running good races , most are blowing up at the business end again no reasons for as to why? , although Ozeta  could be partly explained...very poor jumper , used up too much energy chasing back lost lengths on the flat ( ran a 2m4f+ race ) so was never going to be in it and daves dream was just hugely disappointing , so if you followed yesterday im sorry but can offer no excuses , as for today's yard runners , he just expressed some caution and back off for a month while they work on fitness in time for a big Christmas campaign.


Forget the bottom two as they simply have no chance so it boils down to a 6 horse race ( still paying top 3 on Betfair ) .
Al Ferof is an odds on fav in this and certainly has ( on old form ) a leading chance but 1.88 ? , is there enough to take him on with? , i think so , Lancetto , Court in Session ( the quickest form figures and speed ratings over 2m ) and Belvano are all very smart with the first two having proven current winning form and Astracad who has ability and could run well if putting it all in today , Delphi mountain looks to tilting at windmills here and will need to lower his sights before winning again.
So now for me this boils down to a 5 horse race ( top 3 being paid ) and with Astracad not guaranteed to run his best i will discount and make this now a 4 horse race , take out the fav as we want to take him on and we have 3 left.


For me  i think the best profit spinner here is to place Dutch Lancetto and Court in Session  , for the more speculative just place only on Lancetto ( 2.48 ) it is for me a better bet than the 1.88 for the win only on the Fav.
** RAce is destroyed by Lancetto being a NON RUNNER**

***Al Ferof won very easy but tbf the race was a nothing race after the withdrawls.....

Weighed In:1stAl Ferof (FR)5/6favFull Result  
2ndAstracad (FR)13/2


Now we have in effect a 4 horse race with Nicholls Jolly currently trading at 2.14 now at first glance you would think " wow thats seems too big " , but think for a minute? , the bookies are not in the business of giving money away so why is it not 1.4 ? .
I will tell you why because first time out this season it got blitzed into 3rd a poor 3rd in a very slowly run 2m pipe opener so it has chinks , can they be exploited? , again i think so although the opposition is notably weaker with channibar having to run as well as he ever has to figure, this will lay between west with the wind and last years race winner Gauvain , purely on the basis of value i would rather have the even money and the field against even money and the fav , so just a simple lay on the fav is in order.
Another angle although slightly riskier is to place lay the top two in the betting who are both around 1.6 , this race is a bit harder to predict but i do feel that laying the fav here is the best option.

Result:1stGauvain (GER)2/1
2ndWoolcombe Folly (IRE)11/10fav


A very tough looking 2m Grade 3 Hurdle.
24 runners to start , with the WHOLE field being either distance or CD , what a fucking minefield!!!.
Lets start cutting away at the handicappers and break the class away, my first draft short list is ...

So having evaluated the horses and their form ( all ) i feel the winner will come from these 6 six , but which one??!!.
well i do feel that 1,2 and 3 have the form to make them the winners with 4,5, and 6 having enough about them to win if they can improve slightly , i must admit i am slightly struggling here a tough puzzle to crack in deed....i am going to have to say that my bet here will be a LAY on Pateese @ 4.6 ( keep bet ) and EW bets on the others , this could prove to be a masterstroke or a wallet denting shizzle licking fuck up , as much as i admire Pateese , the fact that the hobbs yard is on my cold list is enough ( at the price ) to make me lay him , i will have a nibble @ bfsp but the main lays will be made in running.....i think i would be happy to come out evens here ( my laybets always cover my win bets ).
Summary : IMO the value bet is the lay on Pateese.

Weighed In:1stBrampour (IRE)12/1Full Result  
2ndOlofi (FR)8/1
4thMoon Dice (IRE)11/2


Another very tough H'cap and i have to take the fav on here , yes Rangito looks goods , looks very progressive but at bigger odds i like the following..

I will looking to play / trade these in running.
**2 of mine hit 2.4 in running and the fav Rangitoto hit 40_ in running!!

Weighed In:1stRangitoto (IRE)9/4favFull Result  
2ndTimesawastin (IRE)14/1
3rdPerpetually (IRE)10/1
4thJoker Choker (IRE)20/1


A smaller field but one in which a case can be made for all of these and on that basis i will be laying Fingal Bay.**FINGAL BAY travelled like a class horse and won very well , cruised thru the race, mistakes at last 2 fences but ran on , very nice.

Result:1stFingal Bay (IRE)4/5fav
2ndBarbatos (FR)16/1
3rdPolisky (FR)8/1


The Fav here MONTBAZON is the only one i cannot take on today and i make this my NAP for today and will be lumping on.
Montbazon 3rd ( unlucky JCT ) , overall a good solid profitable day without being spectacular , time for some sherbets and look forward to another day grinding tmrw ;-))..tfn x

Its a tough ol day today, keep it small, keep it real , keep smiling..


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