Another fine day although you can tell summer is on the wane as the early morning air is back to being brisk and with little warmth.
Racing went well yesterday as we nicked a few winners and some decent prize money ta boot but i did spend most of yesterday playing ( and winning ) Golf and im out again on Weds i think at Thorne and it looks like my Hcap is being snipped by 2 shots at least ( they want 5 ) .
So what do we have for today? well we have a nice couple of UK meetings and the Curragh ( one of just 3 Irish tracks i will entertain although i still think Irish racing is as bent as a Uri Gellar spoon !! ) and this is all supported by some very nice races in France or specifically Deauville where we get to see the mighty Dawn Approach run again. although i dont think he can win today , he is a tough and genuine sort that stays well , travels awkwardly at times and can quicken ( to a degree ) of almost any pace however he is up against some very good horses here that arrive just as much in form and some fresher.
Prix Du Haras De Fresnay Jacques Le Marois (Group 1)7f 209y
- (3yo+, 7f 209y, Class 1, 13 runners)
- Winner €343,260 2nd €129,840 3rd €64,500 4th €29,520 5th €14,881 6th€8,881
- Surface: Turf
Of the Five that have any chance at all at winning i think possibly Olympic Glory is the weakest having marginally the weaker looker 2 yr old form and does have a little to find to match the form of its peers although is still open to a deal of improvement and cannot be fully discounted.
DAWN APPROACH has an obvious chance after winning the 2000 Guineas , Dewhurst and St James Palace Stakes ( Lucky imo ) its had also run a no show in the Derby and has been beaten fair n square by the excellent Toronado making this a great Miler but not the best there is or has been and will probably get beaten today as we have a mix of pure speed, stamina and fast finishers and between em DA will not know what to do, if he races off he will get caught, if he cruises thru and tries to nick it he can get outpaced and if he leaves it late he will have to battle Moonlight Cloud and Elusive Kate up the straight and i dont fancy his chances there.
ELUSIVE KATE could easily be upto winning here having Won 3 times in France already ( Prix Marcel Bousac and the Prix De Rothchild twice ) and a double CD winner to boot and she has also won the Falmouth Stakes ( beating Sky Lantern rather contentiously ), was 3rd behind the brilliant Excelebration in the Queen Elizabeth , 2nd in the Sun Chariot and 4th in the Queen Anne ( behind Aljamaheer that day but will reverse that form ) and ive a sneaky feeling she may try n make the pace here ahead of Letit Mor ( Irish pacemaker ) to take the legs out of the suspect runners and if allowed to dictate could easily be winning this.
However take the form in beating Duntle 2L literally and it looks no better than group 3 , and the form lines with Chaichemadee look group 2 at best so im thinking maybe its run against Sky Lantern was a career best and the French wins were in sub Group 1 fields , still strong form but is it enough.....i think possibly not unless she gets total control of the race n the pace.
Then we have MOONLIGHT CLOUD who was 4th in this last year ( Elusive Kate 3rd ) but was steaming down the final stretch when getting bumped and was imo very unlucky and has started this term in breathtaking fashion but has previously looked more of a sprinter than a 1 miler when winning the Maurice Gheest the last twice ( 6f 101yards ) but did beat Farhh ( excellent run ) in the Prix De Moulin ( 7f 209 yards ) however i have deep seated reservations about this getting a fast run race over almost 1m this is another that could win if the race falls for him ie : pace maker sets a slow pace and stacks them up..if that happens then Moonlight Cloud could beat all these for toe in the final 1f....
Finally we have INTELLO the French Derby winner and winner of the Prix Messidor and the Fielden Stakes ( Listed ) a good looking son of Galileo and is probably best over further ( Arc bound imo ) but has shown ability over this trip and if the pace is strong enough could easily out stay these on the home run , a very smart horse going to the very top and a true Group 1 runner.
The remainder including Aljamaheer and Declaration of War have an awful lot to do to get involved and will have to have improved significantly to overturn all the lateral form lines that they are behind on and with most having raced recently and not showed it i cannot see how this would be possible , the best bet here is to Dutch these 5 at 1.12...this is imo absolutely nailed on and for a grand it will be the easiest £120 you ever make..if you have more then pile it in...no problem ;))...but what will be the outright winner well for me i would say a lot depends on how the race plays out tactically but i will say at a Pinch INTELLO to just get the better of ELUSIVE KATE in a tight driving finish with Dawn Approach possibly coming in 3rd....
Full Result
| 1st (11) | 7 Moonlight Cloud | 5 | 9-1 | 11/4 | |||
| 2nd (7) | s.h | 9 Olympic Glory (IRE) | 3 | 8-11 | 18/1 | ||
| 3rd (5) | 1¾ | 13 Intello (GER) | 3 | 8-11 | 5/2 |
Dawn who? Told you it was average.
ReplyDeleteMorning Mug ,
DeleteI was always firmly in the camp of " good but not great " and you were spot on, hope you laid it ;)...how are you doing, not much happening your side?..hope ur well
Clint