Thursday, 15 August 2013

Friday Feelings....

Howdy Folks ,
Well Thursday went very well with a profit made on every race thru the card thanks to some inspired trading and quality Laying but can it be replicated?..well i will certainly try ( for myself if nothing else lol ) and thinking i have a few jobs to do in the morrow and im feeling like i have an extra 5% energy currently im gonna use it going thru one of the cards again tmrw again just examining the Favs and possibly highlighting one or two winners en route ( any requests for Saturday get em posted )....

*Early Tissue is subject to anomalies and mine wont be ready until 930am tmrw so the prices used will be what is available in the back section on BF.>

NEWBURY FAVS

RACE 1 : PUPIL - BACK - UNPLACED ( Place Lay returned stake )

SUMMARY : PUPIL is a horse i have been advised is a bit special although i have also been informed it may need the run to get this trip as its an absolute speedball at home  but i will be backing it regardless with a place lay for stake back cover.
Both Eye Contact and Template are equally well bred with Template ( other Hannon runner ) probably the better  ( Ifraaj as a sire is having a great season ) although Eye Contact is related to a host of winners and we cannot discount Allegation in what looks a very hot maiden.

BET NOTE : Backing Pupil with a place Lay as cover and i may have a cheeky couple of dollars on Template in what will be a very informative maiden.

RESULT :

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (11)God WillingE A L Dunlop29-5Harry Bentley6/1
opened 5/1
2nd (10)nkRaise Your GazeC G Cox29-5A Kirby9/2
3rd (7)¾11 What About Carlo (FR)Eve Johnson Houghton29-5T P Queally6/1
opened 11/2 £1800-£300 £2400-£400
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RACE 2 : BARLEY MOW - LAY @ 2.98 -  1st @ 2.64 ( Pre race drifted to 5.50 before getting backed, hit 8.0+ in running and Just beat Yuften on the line, two good horses, made a deece profit on the Fap with Yuften and Trade on the win ).

SUMMARY : Another tasty maiden to get stuck into However this looks even harder to call with so many of similar breeding or having similar profiles and requirements the Fav here Barley Mow is another Hannon runner but from Lady Rothschild who has only just started sending a few to Hannon and with this you might expect them to get off to a flyer and his half brother Glean  won a division of these maidens last year which makes for an even stronger case ( should i be changing my mind ? ) however i really think this will be better suited by further and will make a better 3 yr old ( this is based on my past results for the bloodline and personal thoughts ) so in a red hot Maiden i will stand by my prognosis and say this is a lay.
What can win ? ..well in a wide open race it is only opinions, no data , no form just whispers , breeding and a look in the ring tmrw but for now i would say i like the look of  YUFTEN & ZERFAAL with the latter possibly of the most interest as its a full brother to the very high quality 2000 guineas winner Makfi and should be fit and ready to go at the first time of asking.

BET NOTE : I do feel the LAY here is littered with dangers and although it stays on the list as such i will not be laying it and my bet will be a dutch on Zerfaal and Yuften

RESULT :

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (4)Barley Mow (IRE)R Hannon29-5R Hughes6/4f
Towards rear, headway over 1f out, ridden inside final furlong, kept on to lead towards finish opened 2/1 £3250-£2000(x2) £600-£400
2nd (11)nkYuftenW J Haggas29-5K Fallon14/1
In touch, headway over 2f out, soon led, kept on and headed towards finish opened 17/2
3rd (5)Emef DiamondM R Channon29-5T E Durcan66/1
Mid-division, headway to challenge over 2f out, no extra inside final furlong
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RACE 3 : BALTI BOYS - LAY @ 3.15 - 2nd

SUMMARY : A tricky little small field claimer that has Balty Boys as the Fav and this CD winner is primed for a good run but is only marginally joint 2nd highest rated and has some stiff opposition here making this a solid lay as this was a well beaten 3rd of 4 in a similar race lto.

BET NOTE : Some fairly highly tried sorts here and i would say a dutch on BALDUCCI & MABAIT is probably the best bet here having both been racing in far tougher hcaps recently and running well and the booking of Fallon on Balducci certainly catches the eye.

RESULT :

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (2)Tatlisu (IRE)R A Fahey39-9R L Moore7/1
opened 8/1
2nd (1)nkBalty Boys (IRE)J A Osborne49-12 bR Hughes9/4f
opened 11/4 £1100-£400
3rd (7)MabaitD M Simcock710-0D E Egan (3)7/2
opened 3/1 touched 11/4
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RACE 4 : STATUTORY @ 3.55 - LAY - ( Now 3.05 and is a STAT LAY ) - Unplaced - Easy Money ;)

SUMMARY : Another Fallon ride on a good book for him today but this Jolly can be beaten in a small but highly competitive field. Racing over almost 1m6f this odd trip requires that little extra and its stamina abound here with the Cecil inmate Continuum looking impressive and on the upgrade.

BET NOTE : I think a " Punt " on POYLE THOMAS could be in order here as this son of Rail Link looks an out n out stayer and should relish this challenge, wont mind the ground and can race on or off the pace so tactics are not an issue

RESULT :

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (4)Poyle ThomasR M Beckett49-3Jim Crowley11/2
Tracked leaders in 3rd, led 3f out, headed over 1f out, regained lead inside final furlong, held on towards finish
2nd (5)nkContinuumLady Cecil410-0T P Queally3/1
Slowly away, in rear, headway on outer over 2f out led over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on towards finish opened 11/4 touched 10/3
3rd (7)s.hSir Bedivere (IRE)B J Meehan49-6 tR L Moore17/2
Tracked leader, ridden and every chance over 1f out, kept on towards finish opened 10/1
_____________________________________________________
RACE 5 : WIND FIRE - LAY @ 3.35 - 1st @ 3.05 ( hit 8.2 IR )

SUMMARY : Todays Listed event sees a field of  9 line up in what appears to be a relatively low key affair and the Fav with a 3rd in the Norfolk Stakes and a close fifth in the Juddmonte ( Princess Margaret Stakes @ BF  ) looks to have outstanding claims however he did seem to run out of puff in the final 150 yards in that and it wasnt won in a particularly quick time plus Favs have a shite record in this leads me to make this a LAY.


BET NOTE : LILBOURNE LASS and ABBAKOVA look the most interesting for punting reasons and a steady lil dutch on these is well in order.

RESULT :

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (6)Wind Fire (USA)D H Brown28-12R L Moore7/4
Towards rear, ridden and headway over 1f out, kept on to lead towards finish opened 2/1 £800-£400(x2) £1750-£1000
2nd (4)1Excel's BeautyJ Tate28-12 b1Jim Crowley25/1
Led, ridden over 1f out, kept on to lead towards finish opened 20/1
3rd (5)Lilbourne LassR Hannon28-12R Hughes5/4f
Mid-division, headway over 1f out, ridden and went 3rd place inside final furlong, kept on opened 6/4 £3500-£2000 £1050-£600 £700-£400 £600-£400
_____________________________________________________
RACE 6 : ASSEMBLY - LAY 4.3 - ( Now 3.95 and is a STAT LAY ) - Unplaced and max boomage ;)

SUMMARY : And its yet another Fallon Jolly and this Assembly had shown absolutely nothing on its first three run and was beaten out of sight then Gelded and it run amok at Yarmouth winning easy however it still has a ton to find to mix it with the best of these on all known form and i just cant see it happening and this is an easy LAY choice.
Winner will be ??...who knows ! , this is wide open and any one of ten could pop up but if i had to have a go at something i would probably have a wee EW on PANTHER PATROL but this would be speculative at best as you hope it would finally start to transfer some of its quality AW form onto the turf.

BET NOTE : LAY on ASSEMBLY.

RESULT :

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (5)Jontleman (IRE)M R Channon39-1Charles Bishop (3)8/1
Held up towards rear, headway over 1f out, ridden to lead entering final furlong, kept on well opened 10/1
2nd (3)Panther Patrol (IRE)Eve Johnson Houghton39-1R L Moore9/2
Held up mid-division, headway over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong opened 6/1 £2250-£500
3rd (1)Grand Denial (IRE)C G Cox39-6 bA Kirby3/1f
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**Stat LAYS cannot be posted till around Midday as we need to the market to settle down to get a clearer picture of whats happening and include market forces into the Data.

***Updated @ 09:45

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