Thursday, 15 August 2013

Thursday Thoughts...

Hmm..Morning All ,
Again i awoke today feeling absolutely fucking shite and i dont know why??!! , the last week more or less every day ive been feeling completely drained and my body temp is going bonkers , skin is cold yet im sweating? , then i feel about 110° and want to pass out and its making me feel tired all the time...;((..Grr fucks sake...
Anyway i must soldier on and it was another disappointing day in a disappointing month for PPL  with the only bet i found was a reverse PPL and ofc i had the 3rd home in a 3 runner race which is typical of this months poor showing and form however i had success elsewhere which gave the bank an overall lift of 14% to keep me ticking over and today is a better day for racing with better venues and hopefully some better quality but that isnt always assured so i thought for today i will go thru each race and assess the strength of each FAV and mark it as a LAY or PLAY and maybe highlight anything else that pops up en route.]

SALISBURY 

RACE 1 : STARLIGHT SERENADE : LAY - 1ST @ 3.52 ( Hit 1000.00 in running !!! )
Its a maiden and Favs are generally worth taking on if short enough as they very rarely offer any form of value are usually Fav due to hyperbole o notice of future entries which most believe to be a sign of ability however this rarely the case an one of the most important aspects to think of when looking at Maidens is experience as even a much less skilled beast with form can beat a highly strung thoroughbred without experience.
This Fav can be taken on imo as the form bar Henry Candy's Cornish Path of those behind is garbage and this itself  was on its last legs when getting headed close home over 6f and this almost 7f will stretch him to the limit and he will be vulnerable to anything with a finish this will travel well for most and look the most likely winner but i do think it can be beaten but should hang on for 2nd or 3rd.

What can WIN ? : Well Dream Impossible is worth a look as this is from Iffraj and as a sire he has had a very good year and all his progeny are worth a 2nd look, you cannot discount Crystal Nymph from the Hannon yard and the pair of once raced sorts in Juan Alonso (  Hannon again ) and Tubeanie ( cox )  should both improve for their opening runs.

RESULT : I traded out pre race for a good profit so good for me and any traders would have cleaned up lol..

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (4)12 Starlight SerenadeR M Beckett28-4Martin Lane5/2f
2nd (12)nseSolo HunterP D Evans28-11Catherine Gannon9/2
3rd (7)Juan Alonso (IRE)R Hannon29-2P J Dobbs9/2
4th (6)Tubeanie (IRE)C G Cox28-8S J Drowne16/1

RACE 2 : WARRENDALE : PLAY - 3rd @ 5.50 ( Big Fap win for me )
This is another maiden and another once raced  > should improve < type and this from the Candy stable did receive a lot of support fto and ran well in 4th coming thru late ( possibly thru beaten horses ) and this will improve for the run without doubt although the winning time of that race was slow to average the form of those in and around has had several boosts so it does stand up to scrutiny and this race does look weak with only a couple looking likely to pose a threat and i quite fancy this to be good enough today.

What can WIN ? : Probably Warrendale and the current 3.6 is worth a bet although if it drifted to around 4.6 i would alter that to a W/P with Our Duchess the only other runner of interest.

RESULT : 

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (1)Bright Cecily (IRE)C G Cox28-11S J Drowne9/2
Stumbled bady start, behind, steady headway over 2f out, 6th and plenty to do 1f out, strong run inside final furlong, led final strides
2nd (10)hdNakuti (IRE)S Kirk28-8L P Keniry11/1
Went right start, chased leaders, went 2nd halfway, ridden to lead final 110 yards, headed final strides opened 12/1
3rd (12)10 WarrendaleH Candy28-6Catherine Gannon4/1
Took keen hold with leader, led 4f out, ridden and headed final 110 yards, one pace into 3rd towards finish opened 5/2

RACE 3 : PARADISE WATCH : PLAY - 1st @ 1.77 ( Decent Win )
Well its the last of the Tri Fecta of Maidens and we have a hot one here that is already just 2.0 on the exchanges and this son of Royal Applause already has some half decent form in the book with a 3rd and 2nd to its name and i have given this a provisional rating of 74 which is enough to win this with only Lagan Honey looking of interest on breeding of the newbies and Perfect Muse hasnt run since its debut in January.

What can WIN ? : Paradise Watch is the most likely winner and it isnt really worth opposing here.

RESULT : 

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (5)Paradise WatchL M Cumani39-5K Fallon8/11f
Chased leader, led over 2f out, ridden clear final furlong
2nd (7)2It's TabooM D I Usher39-0David Probert4/1
Tracked leader, went 2nd 2f out, no impression over 1f out opened 7/2 touched 3/1
3rd (10)8CaerwynM P Tregoning39-5Martin Dwyer14/1
Slowly into stride, soon off the pace and in last pair, headway 2f out, kept on inside final furlong, went 3rd towards finish opened 12/1

RACE 4 : JAVA ROSE ( STAT LAY ) : LAY - 2nd ( Went off BFSP @ 7.85 so i traded for a good profit and put it on Bantam - 1st @ 5.38 )
A nice fillies hcap over 1m4f and this looks pretty much wide open tbh and that is demonstrated by the market, small field and a 4.5 Fav tells its own story.
Java Rose has already been tried in bumpers and the ilk before winning a low key maiden after staying on well on the run in but was then beaten by the 72 rated Special Meaning next time out quite comfortably  ( 74 rated in 3rd ) which makes its rating of 71p look both realistic and true however i fail to see this improving the minimum of the 10lbs required to take this and will gladly take it on.

What can WIN ? : I would dare to say although BANTAM at 5.9 looks a fair bet as it has a stronger profile than many of these and is most likely to run a true race. - Bantam 1st @ 5.38

RESULT : 

RACE 5 : SNOWBOARDER ( STAT LAY ) : LAY - Unplaced ( easy )
A nice looking Group 3 now with some nice types in a small field headed by Snowboarder , a horse that ran well in Meydan and promised much and has kinda delivered by winning a decent Hcap ( beating the likes of Es Que Love ) and then finding the very classy Montiridge too tough although he did finish ahead of good yardstick Glory Awaits , rated 107 which is about correct and i would corroborate the TF figure as true but this make it the lowest rated performer here with only an age allowance for comfort and i simply cant see it winning this , Afsare is very capable on its day and will give them all something to think about , Boom n Bust is running out of its skin at present and im sure it has a big win in the locker when conditions are right , Fulbright is not without ability and could easily get into the fray and both Professor and Highland Knight are very useful on their day so all in all i Think Snowboarder is worth taking on at the current 3.75.

What can WIN ? : Well thats a tough one to call but i will be having a dutch on Highland Knight and Boom n Bust at decent odds as both have it in them to win this.

RESULT : 

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (2)AfsareL M Cumani69-0Andrea Atzeni9/4f
Tracked leading pair on inside, smooth headway to 2nd 2f out, led going well over 1f out, soon quickened and clear, easily opened 3/1
2nd (4)6Boom And Bust (IRE)M P Tregoning69-0G Baker8/1
Led, headed over 1f out, no chance with winner, held on for 2nd opened 9/1
3rd (1)s.hProfessorR Hannon38-7R Hughes3/1
Steadied start, held up in rear, headway to 3rd inside final 2f, pressed for 2nd close home, no chance with winner opened 10/3
4th (6)6Highland Knight (IRE)A M Balding69-0 tDavid Probert6/1
Tracked leader until ridden 2f out, lost 3rd well over 1f out, soon weakened opened 11/2

RACE 6  :  MY OWN WAY HOME : ( Biggest STAT LAY on the card ) - LAY - UNPLACED
My Own Way Home is easily the most in form and form horse coming here on the back of a hat trick and could win again however it is now on 67 a rating at which it has been systematically floored every time , its best form has always been on rattling fast ground and the juice in this may blunt the speed it has shown previously and it will try no doubt to make all again but will get caught imo , tough to call really but with enough negatives surrounding the four timing bid i feel confident enough to lay this.

What can WIN ? : Impossible to call in this as any of the remainder could throw a good un in and take this although i think at decent odds Catalinas Diamond is worth a few quid EW.

RESULT : 

Full Result

PosDistHorseTrainerAgeWeightJockeySP
1st (3)Tregereth (IRE)J G Portman38-9 (+1)Matthew Lawson (5)7/1
2nd (7)1Renoir's LadyS Dow58-11Andrea Atzeni11/4
opened 9/2 £1400-£400
3rd (9)My Own Way HomeP D Evans59-10Catherine Gannon9/4f
£1250-£500 £1125-£500
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